I did a lot of homework - watched 7 games yesterday and here is my take.
Plays Bears -6.5 v Lions Houston -7 v Ravens Rams +6 v Packers Patriots -10.5 v Jets
Other picks but not bets just to see my record
Titans +3.5 Take Hasselback and the Points with no strong opinion
Colts -1.5 Luck > Weed
Arizona +6.5 Very unimpressed with Ponder
Oakland -6 Fade Jax on road
Saints -2 but too chicken to bet due to very poor defense/turnovers
Dallas -2.5 I do think they win and cover
Cincy -1 Fade Pittsburgh theme this year (they are 1-4 ATS), I also think Dalton is underrated
Redskins +6. The odds say Giants should be favored by more but Giants play down to competition
Bears
The Bears over the Lions is the largest gap in Jeff Saragin's ratings. I was high on the Bears coming into this year, high on Cutler/Marshall and low on the Lions. Yesterday I watched the Lions on the road vs the Eagles and was very unimpressed. Run game was unimpressive, play calling was unimpressive, QB play was unimpressive and head coaching was poor.
Chicago is 4-1 and have won their games by 20, 17, 16, 38. They lost a tough game in green bay. The Bears defense is very strong, and now their QB has some weapons. Before the year started I said I expect the Bears to challenge the Packers for the division this year.
The Lions have been a fade. They are 1-4 ATS this year. The fans have a Lions bias to them because of offense, Stafford's stats last year, CJ and fantasy football. They are not a good football team and I predict Stafford will get injured this year.
The Spread is -6.5, Saragin's ratings says the spread should be Bears -11.61.
Houston
Did anybody watch the Ravens/Chiefs game or Ravens/Cowboys game? The Chiefs ran off tackle left over and over again and were getting free yards vs the Ravens. Jamal Charles ran wild. The Ravens run defense has problems moving laterally. So then the cowboys come to town and Dallas ran all over them. Every running play worked as Dallas was reestablishing a new line of scrimmege 3-4 yards ahead. Dallas also had a lot of success running Murray/Felix on off tackle lefts. It was nuts, the Ravens defense is living on it's name. They got pushed around vs the run and gave up 200 yes 200 yards on the ground both weeks.
Now they face the Houston Texans and Arian Foster. They run the ball. They move laterally. They should run with ease on the ravens especially now without ray ray and Ngata is banged up.
Yes 6.5 points looks like a lot for the Ravens in a game they should be a live dog in. They are a 5-1 team playing a 5-1 team getting a TD? But this Houston running the ball vs Ravens run D is too juicy to pass up. Baltimore's defense is giving up almost 400 yards per game. Houston averages 35 rush attempts per game and I'd be shocked if they didn't have success.
Houston has the better defense, and the more simple blue print on offense to win the game. They will win and cover.
Rams
I picked the Rams to finish 2nd in the West before the season started and noted the team would improve this year. They have. There was a point in last weeks game where the Rams defense hadn't give up a TD in 8 consecutive quarters. Larrenitus is playing well. Long. Finnegan. They are made in the mold their head coach wants them to be made - scrappy. Maybe play a little bit dirty.
On offense Bradford looks poised, I wish he had more weapons but the guy he's been throwing to since Amedonla got hurt, Brandon Gibson has stepped up and looks pretty good. They have a power back in Jackson and a faster back in rookie Richardson.
The Packers look great when they are on but what about that Colts game a few weeks back?
The Public really likes the Packers at this number but Saragin's ratings say this game is priced correctly. I do think the Rams are worth a play as a public fade. I wouldn't be shocked if the Packers win by 1 or 3 points and bury the public. The Public has the Packers/Texans fresh in their mind but seem to forget GB vs Indy a few weeks back.
Patriots
The stats say the Patriots should be favored by this amount. The Patriots don't have the best record but they might be the best team in the NFL. A few tough losses early in the season but I don't think they will lose more than 2 more games the rest of the year. This is not one of them. The Patriots will be there at the end of the year and now they play their hated rivals. I don't think Bellicheck will hold back. I think he has no remorse for running up the score and trying to start a QB contraversy. He will try and make Sancho beat him.
I watched the Jets/Colts last week and cashed in. The Jets played very motivated. I hadn't seen them like it like that all year. It was due or die time. That attitude sort of worries me about Carolina as they are in do or die time. Anyway they ran all over the Colts and played hard defense. I don't think that will work vs Brady. You will see some Jets trick plays, I think the game might be close for 2 maybe 3 quarters but the Pats pull ahead and win comfortably.
The Patriots rebuilt their run defense and the Jets passing game is obviously lacking.
The Patriots rebuild their run game, which helps because the Jets run D hasn't been good this year.
The Saints defense is awful
They give up 456 YPG
They give up 172 Yards rushing and 5.0 per carry
Opposing QB rating is 102
It is VERY VERY tough to win games in the NFL with that shitty of a defense. You keep putting quarterbacks in 2nd and 5's, 3rd and 1's and keep drives going and Breezy is on the sidelines watching.
On offense the Saints haven't been as good running the ball this year. Maybe the loss of Nicks on the OL? His replacement is pretty good. Maybe it's just because they've been losing. Anyway Tampa's Run defense is decent. This means lots of 3rd and longs for brees and more turnover risk.
There is no question Brees is head and shoulders above Freeman but Brees will repeatedly have to convert 3rd and 8's and Freeman will be in 3rd and 2's. Turnovers kill. Yeah I know the Saints looked a lot better the last 2 weeks but it's not as easy as it looks folks.
Dallas should beat Carolina. Still undecided on the play.
Dallas is a public play, but the public will probably lose enough money with the Packers/Saints. Maybe Dallas does cash in.
Dallas has a better passing offense
Carolina has a slightly better rushing offense
Dallas has a better passing defense
Dallas has a better rush defense
Cam has a QB rating under 80, he's facing a secondary that only gives up 181 ypg
Cam Newton has regressed
The Panthers are running more of a college FB offense with these read options
Dallas's secondary is MUCH improved over LY, and they still have DWARE
The Dallas passing game was out of sync earlier in the year
Dez Bryant had his best game of the year last year
Dallas should have won last week
Dallas is just a disappointing team.
Good game vs NYG week 1
Blown out @ Seattle week 2
Only beat Tampa by 6 at home
MNF debacle vs Chicago
Beat Baltimore on the field last week but lost on the scoreboard
Dallas is underachieving. They do probably burst out of their shell and win this week. Cam Newton has been all hype thus far this year but at the same time the Panthers are at a do or die situation at home. If they lose they have nothing else to play for this year. That's a powerful motivator.
I still do think Dallas is the 2nd best team in the NFC East and I picked them to make the playoffs. Maybe they win this easily and get back on track this week. All of the other public plays have major problems (saints defense). There is no major problem in this game, the cowboys just have to play their game and win. Can they do that?
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