[WHATaTEASE]

I started the season off hot so week 4 I began posting my plays, since then I am +10 units. Here are my week 7 picks...

Seattle/SF UNDER 38 (4 units)
2 stout defenses up against 2 mediocre quarterbacks, and 2 offenses that rely very heavily on the run. Don't see much scoring in this one. I think this game will turn into a field position battle and scoring chances will be at a minimum. Since Harbaugh has taken over at SF they have lost 5 games. In the games following the previous 4 losses, Harbaugh's 49ers have allowed a TOTAL of 11 points (8,0,3,0). I expect this trend to continue. There has been a lot of talk about how good Seattle's defense is in their own building, when in fact they are just as good on the road this year. In their 3 road games thus far they are allowing a very respectable 17 ppg.
NO -2.5 (3 units)
Before the lines came out I saw TB as a slight favorite in this one. However, there are some factors that lead me to think NO should handle business here by at least a FG. NO is fantastic coming off of a bye week. Here are thier games following a bye the past 4 seasons.

2008-2009 Win & cover NO 37-SD 32 (+3)
2009-2010 Win & cover NO 24-NYJ 10 (-7.5)
2010-2011 Win & cover NO 34-Car 3 (-5.5)
2011-2012 Win & cover NO 26-Atl 23 (+1)

Let's also remember that this New Orleans team has the talent to contend in the NFC, and if they wanna be in the picture come December they need to start winning now. TB does find ways to win or keep games close at home, but with their only 2 wins of the season coming against Carolina and a Brady Quinn lead Chiefs team, I'm not a firm believer.
*NO/TB UNDER 49.5 (1 unit)
These teams face off twice a year and although the total is set at 49.5, there has only been one meeting in their last 10 games that has exceeded 46 total points.

NYJ +10.5 (4 units)
These teams are drastically different from the teams they have been in the past. The defense of the Patriots is as bad as it has ever been, allowing 14 2nd half ppg this season. This has often resulted in not extending leads, letting teams hang around, and in some cases even losing games. The Jets offense has been atrocious. They have proven that when they are up against a top notch defense like SF, Houston, or even Pit, they have trouble moving the ball, cant seem to get the running game going, and simply can't put up enough scoring to keep up (averaged 9 ppg vs these 3 defenses). However when they play a bad defense like Indianapolis, they look like a much more fluent offense. The Jets are confident going into this divisional rivalry and while NE is by far the much better team, they simply cannot cover anyone in the passing game. NE can't make the stops when it matters, which will keep the Jets close towards the end of this game.

Baltimore +6.5 (3 units)
Both Baltimore and Houston have a 5-1 record. But if you take a closer look at the schedule, you'll see Houston has had a much easier road to 5-1. Houston has won games against Tennessee, Jacksonville, Miami, Denver, and the Jets. Although Denver has been picking it up of late, it is safe to say there have really been no tough match ups for Houston. Their toughest test came last week against GB which resulted in a 42-24 beat down. On the flip side, Baltimore has won tough games against Dallas and New England, and lost a 1 point game to a last second score in Philly. Just because Baltimore has been tested more doesn't mean they are a better team than Houston, because they aren't. However, Houston will face its toughest match up on the ground and I think that will make the difference here. I think Baltimore has a good shot to win this game and if Houston does come out on top it will be by a very narrow margin.


Cleve/Indy OVER 46 (2 units)
There will be VERY little defense in this game, combine that with the fact that this game will be played indoors with no weather conditions, I see this game producing many scoring opportunities. Cleveland is allowing a shade over 27 ppg this season, and 32.5 ppg on the road. While Indy is allowing 29.5 ppg, and 23 ppg at home. I believe Trent Richardson and Andrew Luck will have big days against the opposing defenses, and scoring should surpass the expected total of 46.

[WHATaTEASE]

[2daBank]

that sea/sf under was to easy,,surprised ppl stressed over the side in that one...

you think that saints past off a bye is as relevant considering shawn peyton isnt at the helm? offensively saints have the talent but not sure i agree a team with such a bad defense has the talent to contend....curious on your thoughts as this gm one ive struggled with, my lean is dog or pass in this one, i prob rather pass as not sure bucs can slow passing attack down but i like home dogs w the better d and run gm....

[WHATaTEASE]

I agree with you that TB has a better running game and a much better defense, and like i said above when i first looked at this game i saw TB as a slight favorite. I actually capped the game at TB -1, which is why i was surprised when it opened up at NO -2.5. i do believe the absence of peyton is a factor, but TB can only hope to contain Brees and that passing attack. I don't think they have the fire power to keep up. This will be a close game I'm not expecting a blow out by any means, I just feel that the value is in taking a rested NO team coming off of a win and a bye & knowing they need to pick it up if they want any type of post season. The one thing that has bothered me a bit is that 70% of public money is on NO and the line is moving down, makes me a little uneasy but I'll stick to my guns and initial read with this play. Tail all plays and we should be in positive units by weekends end.

[2daBank]

I agree with you that TB has a better running game and a much better defense, and like i said above when i first looked at this game i saw TB as a slight favorite. I actually capped the game at TB -1, which is why i was surprised when it opened up at NO -2.5. i do believe the absence of peyton is a factor, but TB can only hope to contain Brees and that passing attack. I don't think they have the fire power to keep up. This will be a close game I'm not expecting a blow out by any means, I just feel that the value is in taking a rested NO team coming off of a win and a bye & knowing they need to pick it up if they want any type of post season. The one thing that has bothered me a bit is that 70% of public money is on NO and the line is moving down, makes me a little uneasy but I'll stick to my guns and initial read with this play.

fair enough,,yea ya know the majority gonna eat up a perceived short line on a team like saints all day,,,i try not to let that shit get in the way either, cap the gm and play it, popular plays cash as frequently as unpopular in the long run id image.... thanks for your response and gl this weekend

[WHATaTEASE]

3-3 for a +5 unit finish (+15 units total over past 3 weeks). Trying to hit +50 units over a 10 week period. Monday night pick will be posted later on today.