Im going to post 1 or 2 (usually underdog ML plays) per week. Last year was my first year of NFL betting and a rough one (lots of betting spreads on obvious public faves). This year I come into the NFL season with a much better understanding of NFL lines and knowledge of the game. Last week I was on Titans ML and Bengals ML and this week I will be on
Bucs ML -140
Dont love the juice but I love the Bucs at home. Bucs showed in Cowboys game that their defense is much better than the defense that showed up the previous week against the Giants. In fact, Bucs are a top ranked run defense. Alfred Morris and designed RGIII runs will be stifled, especially at home. While the Bucs pass defense has been inconsistent, I can see Bucs creating lots of pressure for RGIII in the pocket and stagnating that usually explosive offense (see Bucs home opener against Panthers).
Lost a tough one against the Bucs. Actually played Titans ML on Thurs but forgot to post on the thread. Not too much I like this week, except this play that I feel really great about
Browns +125
Things i love about the Browns here:
A) They are at home
B) They have been playing surprisingly well on the road against some of the best teams in the NFL (Ravens, Giants)
C) Bengals have been playing well but I think this is the game they underperform after a few weeks of strong performances
D) The MUCH needed Joe Haden returns to help out this beaten up secondary
E) Trent penetrating Richardson
Just seems that after a tough few road games this team is due for a win.
Not a fan at all of the heavy juice, but I love this play. Raiders played very well on the road last week. McFadden looked great, Palmer seems more effective with a more healthy receiving core. Jags offense is quite one dimensional. They lack the receiving core or quarterback necessary to make the big plays against a usually exploitable Raiders defense. MJD should have a nice game but I think the Raiders will better establish a run game early, and then make big plays down the field to Moore and Heyward Bay and run away with the game, similar to what the Bucs did last week against the Chiefs.
Before the game starts, I like this play very much. It actually stood out as my favorite play after looking at all the lines last week...
Lions +235 ML
...I think Stafford will surprise alot of people and have a huge game. As long as he's made some obvious adjustments during the week and doesn't force the ball to Megatron, I could see him having success moving the ball down the field and shocking the Bears.
Lions were VERY frustrating to watch. A very sloppy first half for Stafford and the receivers, and an even sloppier second half for Lions RBs. Stafford woven the ball well in the second half, and their defense played excellently the whole game. Lions just couldn't capitalize in the red zone.
I don't know why I do this to myself, but my first play for Week 8 is....
Vikings -290
Vikings play brilliantly at home, especially defensively. Bucs are decent at home, but always a mess on the road. I could see Vikings give Freeman hell and Peterson to have himself a very nice game with 2 touchdowns. I expect to make one more play so stay tuned...
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