Atlanta @ Miami

Pick: Mia + 3

As I have said so many times, preseason is handicapped by looking at coaches and offensive coordinators and their approach to preseason. Here we have Mike Smith vs: new head coach Joe Philbin (Green Bays OC from 07-11). Coach Philbin has some pressure at home to get his first win and build some rhythm with his new rookie QB so I expect starters to get a lot of minutes.

Mike Smith has proven that he does not care much about preseason games, as he is 6-12 SU since he became the Falcons coach and has lost the last 7 straight. His Falcons average only 15.5 ppg in the preseason.

Joe Philbin’s reign as Green Bay’s OC was quite the opposite; 11-9 SU, averaging 24 ppg and a whopping 33.4PPG in week 3, the “dress rehearsal” week. Of course that was with Green Bay. In the meantime Miami since 2008 are 12-6 SU, and the defense was stout and allowed on average 11 ppg at home. Between Miami’s continued defensive focus, and the extra boost from Joe’s offensive mindset, Miami should get the win here against a Mike Smith team that has scored more than 20 points only once in their last 10 preseason outings. Miami gets the nod.