The Colts host the Titans in Indianapolis this Sunday, and the home team should more than cover the large spread.
The Colts are 6-0 SU & ATS in the series with an average margin of victory at 28-18.
Indy didn’t have a major statistical edge vs Tennessee last year (328-287 avg) in either game, but have a solid edge with their #5 offense vs the Titans' #31 defense. Indianapolis is 5-1 ATS as a DD favorite, with the only loss being when they failed to cover vs Houston (31-17) as a 17-pt home favorites in 2005.
Tennessee is 5-13 ATS in division play and 3-9 ATS as an AD. Both teams enter this game in poor shape as the Colts had 19 players on the injury report with 10 needing 7-10 days off to heal. Tennessee started the Vince Young era with three starting OL that were game time decisions last week, and he passed for 155 yds (48%) with a 1-2 ratio.
On the surface it looks as if the Titans are playing for 2007 but several key veterans lobbied for Young who brings more energy to the offense. However, Tennessee has only rushed for 70 ypg (3.0) this year and look for the Colts to stuff the box and take their chances in the passing game. Manning should have a field day vs a secondary allowing 225 ypg (69%) with a 5-1 ratio and an opposing QBR of 102.9. Indy has a big WR/DB mismatch here after two bad games in a row. Tennessee will be distracted by the impending suspension of Haynesworth and the media reaction to how Fisher handled the start of Young.
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Phil Steele: Ride Colts vs. Titans
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