[calmeat]

Started tracking a new system last year and it ended up doing pretty well. Figured i will post them again this year. I will post the games from Week 2 on but learning from last year I wont make any plays till week 3.

[Coach Potato]

have a good season

[calmeat]

Thanks Coach

Heres a recap of last year.
Teases - This number is only each game my system projected plus the tease pts. These are not teases i created and thier records. Hope the formatting works. 1st column is teaser pts 2nd is wins 3rd is losses 4th is pushes and then winning %, This is from week 2 to the end of the regular season.

6pt	179	56	4	75%
7pt	183	50	5	77%
8pt	189	47	2	80%
9pt	192	45	0	81%
10pt	194	42	2	82%

ATS

132

97

0

58%

[merikson]

Cal,

I'm very interested in what your system comes up with. GL this season!

[calmeat]

Also went through consensus picks and here is the breakdown of that

	W	L	P	%
6pt	70	15	0	82%
7pt	70	12	3	82%
8pt	74	10	1	88%
9pt	76	7	2	89%
10pt	78	7	0	92%
Concensus	57	26	4	69%

[calmeat]

Consensus Picks Breakdowns by Week, 2011
Week2
ATS 5W-2L-1p 71%

Week3
ATS 7w-2L 78%

Week4
ATS 5w-0L 100%

Week5
ATS 3w2L 60%

Week6
ATS 3w-1L-1P 75%

Week7
ATS 0w-2L 0%

Week8
ATS 4w-1L 80%

Week9
ATS 3w-1L 75%

Week10
ATS 4w-2L 67%

Week11
ATS 3w-3L 50%

Week12
ATS 7w-3L 70%

Week13
ATS 3w-0L 100%

Week14
ATS 6W-0L 100%

Week15
ATS 3w-2L 60%

Week16
ATS 3w-3L 50%

Week17
ATS 3w-2L-1p 60%

[calmeat]

Ok Just to note I will also be posting Statsational'a picks as well. He is the other capper i use for the consensus picks so it made sense. I will post his plays shortly
His thread from last year is located here
http://www.sportsbookreview.com/forum/sports-pro...tem-picks.html

[calmeat]

Statsational NFL 2012

Week 1

Last season we got off to a great start. 6-1 in documented plays. Week 1 is typically a tough week to handicap. We base 95% of our thoughts on what happened last season. Of the 16 games this week 15 are matchups where one team had a better record than the other. In those 15 only 3 do we see the favorite as the team with the lower 2011 record. One of those is Denver who now has Peyton Manning. So we obviously base the lines on the first couple of weeks on our perceptions from the prior season. But when we look at how things play out in the NFL we know that some teams we think are strong contenders right now will be awful and teams we think will be awful will contend. Last season Jacksonville was favored over Tennessee in week 1, Cleveland was almost a TD favorite over Cincinnati, and TB was favored over Detroit. You can go back year after year and see similar trends. If you are in a survivor pool you know how hard it is to stay alive in the first week. What the system tries to do is exploit this. I look back to last years stats and prior matchups and try and find the trends that have proven successful in the first weekend. For example if you just played against playoff teams from the prior season in week 1 you would pick 56% over the last 20 years. That's about 200 games. Not bad at all. It shows how the lines are always skewed toward the teams that were good the prior season.


Week 1 Picks

1. Dallas +4...................64%
2. Washington +9..........58%
3. Denver -1...................58%
4. Arizona +3.5..............57% (Buy .5)
5. Cincinnati +6..............57%
6. Kansas City +3.5........55% (Buy .5)
7. Indianapolis +10........55% (Buy.5)
8. NY Jets -2.5..............55% (Buy .5)
9. St. Louis +8.5..............55%
10. Tampa Bay +3.........55% (Buy .5)
11. Minnesota -3............54% (Buy .5)
12. Philadelphia -8.........53%
13. Tennessee +6..........53%
14. San Diego -1...........53%

If you can not find 3.5 on the Minn game then take it at -4 but do not buy the half point down. If you can only find +2.5 on KC then buy up to 3.

Lets start the season off right.

[calmeat]

Week 1 is tough dont really trust much since system is based on stats from last year. But here is what i have

http://calmeat.mysbrforum.com/photos/n/v7kmGoxS.png


I will probably do some teases. Right now im looking at doing
MIN, DET, DEN and OAK 10pt Tease and PHI, HOU, DET 6.5 pt tease. Next week is where i will def making plays

Consensus picks for week 1 are
MIN
ARI
DEN
CIN

[calmeat]

This post i will post my plays this week. I have a BR right now of 100 so gotta money manage especially week 1. So gotta play it small this week.
First bet locked in

10 to win 12.40
Tease 4tm 10.5pt +124
PHI Even
HOU -2.5
DET +1.5
BAL +3.5

[calmeat]

5 to win 5.50
3tm 8.5pt +110
CHI -2.5
NOS -1
HOU -6

2tm 6pt -120 (local)
PHI -3
DET -1.5

[calmeat]

Statsational
Week 1 = 8-5-1 61%


Week 1 Picks

1. Dallas +4...................64% ......................W
2. Washington +9..........58%........................W
3. Denver -1...................58%................. ......W
4. Arizona +3.5..............57% (Buy .5),,,,,,,,,,,W
5. Cincinnati +6..............57%..................... ..L
6. Kansas City +3.5........55% (Buy .5)..........L
7. Indianapolis +10........55% (Buy.5).............L
8. NY Jets -2.5..............55% (Buy .5)...........W
9. St. Louis +8.5..............55%................... ..W
10. Tampa Bay +3.........55% (Buy .5),,,,,,,,,,,W
11. Minnesota -3............54% (Buy .5),,,,,,,,,,Push
12. Philadelphia -8.........53%.......................L
13. Tennessee +6..........53%.......................L
14. San Diego -1...........53%........................W

[calmeat]

So for my system like i said i didnt trust them. I dont count Week 1 into my record I will start that week 3. I will post my sheet just for looking at right now.
Week 1
ML = 11-5
ATS = 5-11
O/U = 7-9

Consensus Picks
Week 1
ML = 4-0
ATS = 2-2
O/U = 2-2

Week 2 will be posted later today

[calmeat]

Statsational NFL 2012

Week 2 Picks


KC +3..... 90%
SEA +3..... 80%
TB +7.5.. 76%
DEN +3..... 67% MNF
TEN +6..... 63%
OAK -2.5... 62%
JAX +7.5.. 61%
CAR +2.5.. 61%
DET +6.5.. 57% SNF
BAL +2.5.. 57%
NE -13.5.. 56%
GB -6..... 54% TNF
CLE +7..... 54%
IND +1..... 54%
WSH -3..... 54%

The 90% on KC is the most I have ever seen. I have a ton of trends that all favor KC here. So I fully expect KC to cover this game. That does not mean I am going to do anything silly and risk my bankroll on one game. I mention this all the time but the key to any business (and this is a business) is to stay in business. Then make a profit. You can not make a profit tomorrow if you are closing the doors to the store today. So be smart with the money management. We had an 87% game in week 16 last year that did not win. So nothing is perfect. The strength of the system is that it will find the edges on the schedule and over time pick at a high percentage. Short term we can always get some swings either positive or negative.


Once again the rule on the half point buys is only if you are getting them at 10% juice do you make the buy. A lot of places give 20% which gives us no edge. Anything over that and it becomes a negative to us. If you can get 10% then move all games on or off the 3, 7 and 10. Since a small number can actually get the 10% I am going to post the plays as they are without any point buying. You will have to use your own judgement as to whether you are buying the half points or not.

BOL

[calmeat]

Calmeat's System Picks


Week 2


Consensus Picks
BAL +2.5
CLE +7
WSH -3
DET +6.5
JAX +7.5
TBB +7.5

[calmeat]

Going with 6pt tease tonight Bears +11 over 45.5. Good luck!

[Arky]

Tough one on the Thursday night game.

I had the exact opposite on the consensus Week 1. We both go 2-2. Doh!

Keep 'em coming.....

[calmeat]

Yeah these 2 weeks are tough. That being said I locked in my bet already.
6.5pt Tease
Washington +3/CIN-1

I keep hearing to beware of the STL upset but im not buying. Wsh defense is pretty good and STL D looked good but i think that was more stafford having issues. Plus WSH D has been strong in the past years, and the new tools on Offense makes me like this game. IF Garcon doesnt play then it will be a tough one and STL could outright win but with +3 (ties win 5dimes) i felt good about it.

As for CIN. With hayden out i just done see this one being much of a game. AJ green should have a monster game but if he doesnt then that speedy Hawkins will have his breakout game.

[calmeat]

Also did one with all the consensus picks earlier in the week also added NOS (hope that one isnt the one that looses)
7tm 10.5 pt ties push
TB+19.5
NOS+8
BAL+11.5
CLE+18.5
JAX+19.5
WSH+7.5
DET+18

[calmeat]

Last bet before it starts to count.
Goin with ATL +3.5 over 45 Tease tonight

[calmeat]

Im gonna lose this by 4 frickin pts cause Den cant move the ball. Uhh very frustrating. Good thing next week things should be better.

[calmeat]

Thank you Denver

[calmeat]

Week 2
ML = 7-9
ATS = 6-8
O/U = 3-12

Consensus Picks
Week 2
ML = 3-3
ATS = 1-3
O/U = 2-3

Next week is when it start to count and i will be tracking that from now on.

[calmeat]

Statsational NFL 2012

Week 2 Picks
6-8-1

KC +3..... 90%.............L
SEA +3..... 80%..........W
TB +7.5.. 76%............W
DEN +3..... 67% MNF....L
TEN +6..... 63%...........L
OAK -2.5... 62%..........L
JAX +7.5.. 61%...........L
CAR +2.5.. 61%..........W
DET +6.5.. 57% SNF....L
BAL +2.5.. 57%..........W
NE -13.5.. 56%...........L
GB -6..... 54% TNF......W
CLE +7..... 54%..........Push
IND +1..... 54%..........W
WSH -3..... 54%.........L

[calmeat]

Statsational NFL 2012
YTD 14-13-2 51%




Week 3 picks


1. Kansas City +9....................72%
2. Seattle +3............................71%
3. New England +3...................70%
4. Cincinnati +3........................70%
5. Arizona +3.5.........................66%
6. Denver +2.5...........................65%
7. Chicago -7............................62%
8. Tennessee +3.5....................58%
9. Atlanta +3............................58%
10. Pittsburgh -4.......................57%
11. Tampa Bay +7.5..................53%

Kansas City is a top play once again. After getting destroyed in Weeks 1 and 2 this looks like suicide, and perhaps it is. But remember the oddsmakers set a line and are willing to take action on either side of that game. They know they wont have any KC bets outside of Matt Cassels dad. So without a doubt they have to inflate the line. They just can not push it too high or they will be bombarded by sharp money. Sharps do not fear betting any team at any time. Squares do. No team goes 16-0 ATS and no team goes 0-16. Will KC cover? I hope so, but even if they don't it will not deter me from taking them in the future. Last year I had a lot of emails on the Colts and Miami early on in the season. Both of those teams wound up finishing pretty strong in the second half of the year ATS.

[calmeat]

Calmeat's System Picks


YTD
0-0 ML 0%, 0-0 ATS 0%, 0-0 O/U 0%
Consensus Picks 0-0 ATS 0%


Week 3
nq-yw2i8.jpg


Consensus Picks
TBB +8
ARI +3.5
DEN +2
ATL +3
SEA +3.5
PIT -4

[calmeat]

System Bets

Straight
TBB +8 1u
ARI +3.5 1u
DEN +1.5 1u
STL +7.5 1u

Parlay
TBB/ARI 1.5u

Tease
6pt TBB +14/ARI +9.5 1u
7pt TBB +15/ARI +10.5/BAL +4 1u

Home Dog
ARI +170 1u

Others
6pt T CAR +4.5/Under 55 (-105)
13.5pt T TBB+23/ARI+16.5/ATL +16.5/DEN +14.5/PIT +10/SEA +16.5 (+115)
7.5pt T WSH +5/ATL +10.5/BAL+5 (+127)

[calmeat]

Also adding

Home ML Dog
DEN +110
SEA +155

[CBOYNATION]

System Bets

Straight
TBB +8 1u
ARI +3.5 1u
DEN +1.5 1u
STL +7.5 1u

Parlay
TBB/ARI 1.5u

Tease
6pt TBB +14/ARI +9.5 1u
7pt TBB +15/ARI +10.5/BAL +4 1u

Home Dog
ARI +170 1u

Others
6pt T CAR +4.5/Under 55 (-105)
13.5pt T TBB+23/ARI+16.5/ATL +16.5/DEN +14.5/PIT +10/SEA +16.5 (+115)
7.5pt T WSH +5/ATL +10.5/BAL+5 (+127)

Thanks Calmeat, I tailed 6 and 7 pt teasers and Arizona Home Dog bet! Look forward to more posts! I didn't even consider betting the Zona and Tampa games. Thanks again!

[calmeat]

Glad it worked out for you. Although you are a cowboys fan welcome to the thread. (Im an eagles fan)

[Coach Potato]

look forward to your plays for this week

[calmeat]

Week 3 Results

Overall
System
ML = 6-10
ATS = 8-8
O/U = 9-7

Consensus Picks
ML = 3-3
ATS = 4-2
O/U = 4-2

My Plays
7-3 +6.51units


Week3
System
ML = 6-10
ATS = 8-8
O/U = 9-7

Consensus Picks
Week 3
ML = 3-3
ATS = 4-2
O/U = 4-2

My Plays
7-3 +6.51u

[calmeat]

Statsational NFL 2012
YTD 14-13-2 51%


Week 3 pick Results
9-2 81%

1. Kansas City +9....................72%..W
2. Seattle +3............................71%..W
3. New England +3...................70%..W
4. Cincinnati +3........................70%..W
5. Arizona +3.5.........................66%..W
6. Denver +2.5...........................65%..L
7. Chicago -7............................62%..W
8. Tennessee +3.5....................58%..W
9. Atlanta +3............................58%..W
10. Pittsburgh -4.......................57%..L
11. Tampa Bay +7.5..................53%..W

[calmeat]

Statsational NFL 2012
YTD 25-15-2 60%




Week 4 picks


1. Miami +6.5....................76%
2. Oakland +6.5..............75%
3. New Orleans +7.5........73%
4. Buffalo +4.5.................66%
5. Carolina +7..................65%
6. Seattle -2.5.................63%
7. Jacksonville +2.5............63%
8. Dallas -3.5...................62% MNF
9. Washington +3............61%
10. San Diego +1.............58%
11. San Francisco -4.........57%
12. NY Giants +2..............56% SNF
13. Cleveland +12.............55% TN

Because we had such a big week your bankroll should now be larger. My suggestion would be to use your original bankroll all season long and the winnings are put aside. In other words bet the same amount you did in week 1 per game this week. Do not get the urge to push the bet sizes. You will find yourself having a big week, like last week, and follow it up with a not so good week and be in worse shape than you were before the big week. Then you will have to bring the bet amount down and we will have another huge week. The worst week you have will be the highest you bet. It is hard to pick winners over the course of the season like we did last year and so far this year. To screw it up with poor money management is devastating.

Having a look at this weeks card we are in a similar situation as we were last week. We have the dog in 10 of the 13 games we are taking. I have gone through the games a million times making sure there are no mistakes. The numbers are coming out with another dog heavy week. What is interesting is historically favorite leaning trends are leaning toward the dogs overwhelmingly so far this season. Part of that is the inordinate amount of home underdogs we have seen so far. 39.5% of all games have seen the home team getting points. Over the course of the season, if that continued, we would have 101 games with a home dog. The largest number of home dogs we have seen in the last 20 seasons was 88 in 2007. So far this year the oddsmakers have not gotten a handle on who are the better teams. The underdogs are winning at a 60% clip. Hopefully that trend continues this week.

[calmeat]

Calmeat's System Picks


YTD
6-10 ML 37.50%, 8-8 ATS 50%, 9-7 O/U 56.25%
Consensus Picks 4-2 ATS 66.67%


Week 4




Consensus Picks
NYG +2
BUF +4
NOS +7.5
WSH +3
SDC +1