[jjgold]

No sport does one postion matter so much, throw every handicapping angle out in the NFL and just watch and evaluate the QB's and make your decisons.

Pretty simple

[imgv94]

Are you joking?

How about the Offensive Line that protects the QB from injury and the team from lost of yardage? When the O-Line is struggling it is basically impossible for any QB to develop any rhythm when he is not allotted enough time to pass the ball?

Would love to see how successful Brady and Manning would be with the Texans O-Line..

Also didn't Trent Dilfer win a SuperBowl?

[psycho44]

Brad Johnson too behind a great Tampa Bay defense.

[jjgold]

Week in and week out the QB's are the most important position on the field.

Ask any NFL coach, scout or insider

[moses millsap]

Just like starting pitchers in MLB, right?

[jjgold]

Ownership to a degree but on a smaller basis. The NFL has about 10 QB's that are capable of playing well week in and out.

In MLB pitching is horrible so most nights it is a crapshoot who will win. More equality in basesball pitching vs nfl qb's.

[bigboydan]

If anything it's NHL goalies.

[Mudcat]

JJ has illustrated the square capping process to a "T" here.

Rookie bettors don't understand what a team game football is and they pay too much for the glamour guy.

In fact a consistently reliable angle for me over the years has been betting NFL underdogs of 10 or more points (which almost always means betting against a significantly better QB).

The linesmakers know there are rookies out there that think like jj and it gets reflected in the line. The books (and people who understand how bettor psychology leads to out-of-whack lines) make money.

[moses millsap]

I'm pretty sure JJ was being facetious, at least, I was.

[Hulu]

JJ has illustrated the square capping process to a "T" here.

Rookie bettors don't understand what a team game football is and they pay too much for the glamour guy.

In fact a consistently reliable angle for me over the years has been betting NFL underdogs of 10 or more points (which almost always means betting against a significantly better QB).

The linesmakers know there are rookies out there that think like jj and it gets reflected in the line. The books (and people who understand how bettor psychology leads to out-of-whack lines) make money.

You are right on the money here Mudcat. Of all the major team sports, football requires the players on the field to function as a unit in order to be successful.

Baseball has the pitcher, hockey has the goaltender and even basketball, to a degree, can be dominated by a single player. But in football there is simply no one player on the field that can take the game on his shoulders and win it singlehandedly.

[imgv94]

I think it sucks that Lineman never get the credit they derserve..

[Dark Horse]

The one guy the public always overlooks when he's out is the starting center... This f*cks up the snap.

Cincy is in that position this Sunday.

[imgv94]

Cincy will still probably win that game.

[RabidDog]

The one guy the public always overlooks when he's out is the starting center... This f*cks up the snap.

Cincy is in that position this Sunday.

Totally agree, I beleive the rams starting center is out for the season and look they only scored 13 points against the 49ers.

[imgv94]

Cleveland is a great example as well.

[Dark Horse]

Cincy will still probably win that game.

With PIT coming off a shutout?

[moses millsap]

The one guy the public always overlooks when he's out is the starting center... This f*cks up the snap.

Cincy is in that position this Sunday.

There was a long thread at RX about this.

[imgv94]

With PIT coming off a shutout?

Revenge for last years playoff lost that almost took the career of Carson Palmer. I understand people who like the Steelers, Bengals are banged up-Center is out-Steelers motivated off of shutout loss.

When handicapping football I look at the now situation, who is the better team right now. And right now week 3 I see the Bengals as the better team.

[pags11]

college football is a lot about the QB's as well...

[Scorpion]

I think the head coach is the most important.

Great coaches win championships and have good records ATS. Its true!

Its all abuot the head coach!

Dumb coaches dont haev sinning record ATS

[Scorpion]

Revenge for last years playoff lost that almost took the career of Carson Palmer. I understand people who like the Steelers, Bengals are banged up-Center is out-Steelers motivated off of shutout loss.

.

All the STUPID things Carson Palmer said about the steelers like a little girl is gone cost his team here!

How can anyone motivate steelers more than this idiot?

Some professional athletes are so penetrating stupid!

[JDK192]

NHL goalies by far the most important 1-person position in sports as far as handicapping goes.

Steelers by under a fg at home is tough to pass up imo.

[Jay Edgar]

I agree that the NFL is a team game more than any other., with several key positions including QB, C, LT, DT/DE, and CB equally crucial in reality, although not in the public (or media) mind. The fantasy football epidemic has only made that myopia worse.

What we also overlook is how unbelievably demanding modern-day football is on the body and soul. It is a game that hurts like hell to play -- you have to want to, really really want to, and right now, to have any hope of success.

I always try to be on the team with something to prove against the team that just proved something (and, preferably, just proved it on national television). The individual players have less to do with it than in any other sport, IMO.

Not suprisingly then, I do like those Steelers at home Sunday.

[pags11]

coaches are definitely important in college...

[imgv94]

JayEdgar where have you been?

[Jay Edgar]

JayEdgar where have you been?

Hey bro, glad you are still to be found here. Have Razz and Alamorich moved out of the neighborhood entirely? I hope not. At its best, SBR can feel more like a community of smart and passionate posters than any of the others.

I stepped away in the springtime mostly because the real world was calling, very insistently, and because I never made time to develop a good approach to MLB like I wanted to. So I didn't feel as if I had much to say. Also that reign of ugliness by The Great One was at its peak. So dropping off wasn't so hard to do.

I probably won’t be repeating early '06 and camping out here nightly, but I'll do better at keeping up and checking in . . . .

[imgv94]

Alamorich Razz don't post much here anymore..

[onlooker]

Alamorich Razz don't post much here anymore..

Do they post regularly over at your place IMG?

[imgv94]

Razz does, Alamo is at therx now. He had a great baseball season with his system.

[McBa1n]

It all starts/ends with the offensive line - if the offensive line is sound, then it moves to the defensive line.

That's how I cap - but I'm pretty square.

Only 2 QBs can rise about bad O Line play consistently and that's Brady and Manning. Other than that - look real close at how lines are playing (I mean WATCH the games). I still don't get how people can bet on teams they havn't even seen play.

[imgv94]

McBain let me ask you this..

Do you think Manning and Brady could have 100 passer ratings if they had the Texans O-Line blocking?

[McBa1n]

Absolutely NOT on a consistent basis.
No QB in the history of the game, could.
That line is god-aweful and one of the worst over the past 3 seasons I think I've ever seen.

That said, I believe both said QBs could have 8-8 or better seasons with the Texans (7-9 at worst), because they are the only 2 true 'elite' QBs in the league right now... And they make players around them much much better. Also, beyond that, I don't believe either QB could have a rating above 100 more than a couple of times/year with that line...

NE has had injuries on their line and Brady has put up magnificent games. He's that good. Not necessarily 100 passer rating good - but win the game good, there is a huge difference. Manning has a solid (actually, I'd rate them as 'middle of the pack') line that has had good fortune with injuries. However, for both players, they can still win ballgames without their 'a' unit...
However, if they have to play with sub-standard OLs week in/week out, then there's no reason to believe they could win EVERY week... But they can still be dangerous (Favre was very much like this in the years after the Superbowl when they were a playoff team at best - they had little O line, but Brett was elite back then).

But yeah, the argument that a serviceable (top half of the league, preferably) Offensive line is where ALL good teams start. I look at them LONG before I look at the QB (NE and Indy aside). Carolina last week was a perfect example. A Tackle and a Center go down - you have to wonder if that team can hold up. They did alright, because that line has good depth on it, versus a top 10 Minnesota DLine... But it was too big of a factor to risk in either direction. I think we're on the same page, though, in terms of QBs' factor into capping a game... It definitly is overstated IMO.

[pags11]

didn't realize razz was posting at the other site...was wondering where he went...

[imgv94]

McBain I like your style bud..

[pags11]

I like his style too mcba1n...send me a PM with that site info. IMGV...