Here is a quick review of some of the Week 2 and overall statistical numbers that are the bread-and-butter for NFL handicappers.
But first, a couple of pertinent notes. The Carolina Panthers opened up as two-point road favorites over the Minnesota Vikings last week, but were eventually bet down to two-point underdogs. And the Jacksonville Jaguars were similarly posted as two-point home favorites over the Pittsburgh Steelers, but were bet down to two-point dogs.
NFL Week 2 By The Numbers
So for the sake of simplicity, we’ll consider those two games as pick ‘ems for the relevant statistical categories mentioned below. Also, because of pushes against the lines or the totals, and statistical ties, some records mentioned below will not add up to the exact number of games played. OK, here we go:
A quick review of the betting sheets reveals:
• Home teams bounced back after a pathetic 5-11, 3-13 performance opening weekend by going 12-4 straight up and 11-5 against the spread during Week 2. On the season, the home squads are now 17-15 straight up and 14-18 vs. the numbers.
• Favorites followed up an 8-8, 5-11 slate during Week 1 to go 11-3 straight up and 10-4 ATS over Week 2. Overall, the chalk is 19-11 SU and a sister-kissing 15-15 ATS on the season.
• Home favorites also rebounded after a terrible opening weekend by going 9-2 straight up and 8-3 vs. the numbers during Week 2. That gives home chalk a 12-8 mark straight up and a 9-11 ATS record so far this season.
• Home underdogs have had a bit of a tough time so far this season. After a 1-2, 1-2 performance during Week 2, home dogs are now 3-7 straight up and 4-6 against the spread on the season.
• The winning teams covered the spread in 15 of 16 games during Week 2. The only winner not to cover the number was the Denver Broncos, who beat the Kansas City Chiefs 9-6 in overtime as 10-point home favorites. On the season, outright winners are 28-4 against the spread.
• Seven games went over their posted totals during Week 2, while seven games stayed under the total, and two games (Baltimore vs. Oakland and Dallas vs. Washington) we’ll call pushes. So on the season, the O/U is 11-19 so far. Breaking it down a bit, of the three games with the highest over/unders during Week 2 (Indianapolis/Houston 47, Seattle/Arizona 47 and San Francisco/St. Louis 44), two went under. So on the season, the three highest O/Us of each of the first two weeks have gone 2-4. In the three games with the lowest posted totals during Week 2 (Chicago/Detroit 32, Baltimore/Oakland 34 and Atlanta/Tampa Bay 36), the O/U went 1-1-1, giving that particular number a 2-3-1 mark on the season. And of the three games played in domes during Week 2 (Carolina/Minnesota 37, Atlanta/Tampa Bay 36 and Indy/Houston 47), two stayed below their totals. So on the season, the O/U is 2-5 in games played in domes.
Other interesting statistics culled from Week 2 boxscores:
• The teams that piled up more first downs than their opponents in their respective games went 11-3 straight up and 10-4 against the spread. On the season, those teams are now 24-6 SU and 20-10 ATS.
• Teams that outgained their opponents went 13-3 straight up and 12-4 vs. the number. On the season, those teams are now 25-7 SU and 23-9 ATS.
• Teams that gained more yardage on the ground than their opponents went 13-2 both straight up and against the spread. So on the season, teams that have outrushed their foes are 24-7 SU and 23-8 ATS.
• Teams that gained more passing yardage than their opponents went 12-4 straight up and 11-5 against the spread. On the season, those teams are now 21-10 SU and 23-9 ATS.
• Teams that committed fewer turnovers than their opponents went 9-2 straight up and 8-3 vs. the number. For the season, those teams are now 21-4 SU and 20-5 ATS.
• Teams that were called for less penalty yardage than their opponents went 8-8 straight up and just 7-9 against the spread. On the season, those teams are now 17-14 SU and 15-16 ATS.
• Teams that held the ball longer than their opponents went 14-2 straight up and 13-3 against the spread. On the season, those teams are now 28-4 SU and 24-8 ATS.
And the Green Bay Packers became the first team this season to outrush their opponents and win both the turnovers and time-of-possession battles, and still lose the game straight up and against the spread. Nine teams won those three statistical battles during Week 2 (Green Bay, Atlanta, Chicago, Buffalo, San Diego, Cincinnati, Indianapolis, Baltimore and Jacksonville), and eight of those both won the game and covered the spread. So far this season, teams that have won those three categories in the boxscores are 14-1 both straight up and against the spread, with Atlanta, Chicago and Baltimore each doing it twice.
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Chance Harper: NFL Week 2 By The Numbers
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