I continue crushing the NFL, while college football took a turn for the worse last week. All picks are now mine alone, as my consensus partner is no longer available.
I have two plays that I want to post before the line moves against me.
8* Michigan -3 (biggest play of year to date) vs. Penn St.
5* Bears -2.5 -115 vs. Vikings
Writeups will come later, as well as the rest of my picks.
I just put in a play 5 minutes ago on scUM before I even saw this. Looks like we have the same mentality here...bad scUM loss, impressive PSU win. Media all over PSU and down on scUM. Michigan wins by double digits I am sure. I am with you this weekend Razz.
Don't know about CHIC. Neither of these teams are impressive and it can go either way in my opinion.
Again, I would warn everyone not to put too much emphasis on anything I say about college this year, as a mixture of bad plays and bad breaks has doomed me so far. Hopefully, now that I am posting solely my plays instead of consensus plays, things will turn around.
NCAA Football Overall (63-70-0, -72.10*)
NCAAF Sides (45-51, -58.40*)
8* Michigan -3 vs. Penn St.
At the beginning of the season, Michigan was overvalued and Penn St. was undervalued. Now, they have switched roles.
Penn St. has looked dominant at home against good teams, and absolutely thrashed the Minnesota team that beat the Wolverines last week. But, in their lone conference road game, they struggled mightily, needing a late touchdown pass to beat Northwestern. While Northwestern is improving under Randy Walker, playing there is not in the same ballpark as playing in the Big House. Joe Paterno won’t be intimidated, but his freshman WRs and true freshman PK may be. Also, QB Michael Robinson has had an erratic career, especially away from Happy Valley.
Penn St.’s offense was held to 11 first downs last week against a tough Ohio St. defense. Granted, the Wolverines are nowhere near as solid defensively as the Bucks, but have shown improvement recently against quality Michigan St. and Minnesota offenses. On the offensive side of the ball, Michigan RB Hart has shown signs of his amazing performance from last year, rushing for 327 yards the last two games.
Michigan is 15-0 SU when playing with a .500 record. They are also 8-0 SU and 6-2 ATS recently after a loss. A quality Penn St. defense is the only thing that keeps this close at all.
Michigan 31, Penn St. 17
5* Notre Dame +12.5 vs. USC
Giving Charlie Weis two weeks to prepare for a USC defense that has been exposed by Arizona St. and Arizona is unfair.
This game shapes up a lot like Super Bowl XXXVI, when the Patriots were two touchdown underdogs to the Rams, and Weis instituted a ball-control passing game, which eventually led to a low-scoring victory.
The Trojans leave the weak Pac-10, and find things don’t come as easily.
Notre Dame 34, USC 31
5* South Florida +2 vs. Pittsburgh
South Florida’s defense has been dominant, allowing less than 90 yards per game in their last four, including games against Miami, Penn St., and Louisville. Pittsburgh has nowhere near the offense firepower of these teams.
South Florida has been playing exceptionally well (covering 4 in a row), despite failing to garner national attention, except briefly after their blowout of Louisville.
Most people don’t realize it, but South Florida is firmly in control of the Big East race, and won’t let that slip away against a Pitt team in turmoil.
South Florida 24, Pitt 13
4* Texas Tech -14.5 vs. Kansas St.
This one has rout written all over it. The Red Raiders have covered their last three meetings with Kansas St. by a combined 73.5 points. These programs continue moving in opposite directions. Kansas St. has fallen from dominance to the point where they are barely beating teams they used to crush. Now, Texas Tech has taken over Kansas St.’s old role as bullying anyone who is not at the top of their game.
Last week, Nebraska fell behind 21-0 to the Red Raiders, but figured out a remedy to at least slow the Raiders down. Don’t expect the same from Kansas St., who has one of their weakest secondaries in years, and won’t be able to come back from an early deficit. They went to a red-shirt freshman at quarterback last week on the way to only putting up 12 points against Texas Tech. That won’t get it done this week.
Trends all point to Texas Tech as well. Kansas St. has only covered 4 of their last 15 games overall, including only 1 of their last 7 road games. Texas Tech has covered the game before Texas 6 years in a row (not sure what exactly this means, but it can’t hurt). They are also 15-6 ATS recently as a home favorite, and have covered 11 of their last 13 homecomings.
Texas Tech 42, Kansas St. 17
4* Wake Forest +14 -105 @ Boston College
Wake’s QB Randolph is 37-49 the last two weeks, and the Demon Deacons ran for 247 yards last week in Tallahassee against one of the best defenses in the nation.
Boston College has a couple defensive starters nursing injuries, and Jim Grobe’s unusual offense has confused the Eagles the last couple years, resulting in two straight wins in this series. The dog is 12-3-1 recently in Wake Forest games. I doubt if they have enough to win outright, but they can certainly cover this generous number.
Boston College 31, Wake Forest 24
4* Cal -16 vs. Oregon St.
Oregon St. has turned the ball over 14 times their last 4 games, and that will result in a rout if they continue that trend. Cal has been a bully recently against lesser opposition, and have put up over 35 points 13 times since last year.
The Bears are averaging over 270 yards rushing this season. On the other side, the Beavers can’t run the ball at all. And, check 638 yards allowed their last outing, against a Washington St. team that only scored 21 points against a dreadful Stanford defense.
Last year ended up 49-7, and this one could be ugly too, if HC Tedford decides to take out all the frustration from last week’s collapse.
California 45, Oregon St. 21
3* Nevada -1 vs. Louisiana Tech
3* Florida +6.5 @ LSU
2* Utah -10 vs. San Diego St.
2* Iowa St. +6 @ Missouri
2* Iowa -14.5 vs. Indiana
2* Central Florida +9 @ Southern Miss.
NCAAF Totals (18-19-0, -13.70*)
4* Florida St. @ Virginia Under 49.5
3* South Florida @ Pittsburgh Under 46.5
2* Oklahoma vs. Kansas (N) Under 42.5
2* Northwestern @ Purdue Over 66.5
Here are the final NFL plays for Sunday. In my opinion, this is the weakest card of the year to date, with only one game that I feel comfortable wagering a large amount on.
5* Bears -2.5 -115 vs. Vikings
In the preseason, this was a game I circled as possibly being a huge play, thinking the Vikings would get off to a fast start, and be a 3-4 point favorite in this game. Instead, the Bears are favored, and correctly so.
The Vikings are a team in absolute ruins. They have four defensive starters out, and both the offensive and defensive lines are in shambles. Culpepper is playing with a nagging knee injury, without his former offensive coordinator, center, and biggest weapon in Randy Moss. Now, his best receiver this season, Nate Burleson, is also out. As a result, Culpepper’s play has dropped significantly. He’s thrown four touchdown passes, compared to ten interceptions, and has been sacked an average of five times per game. They are also dealing with another off-field controversy, and the fact that their head coach could be fired any day.
The Vikings defense has given up a league-worst 178 yards per game rushing. This is perfect for the Bears and rookie QB Orton, who has been stellar at times, and bad at times. He won’t be asked to do too much Sunday, and will be able to lead his team to enough points to win this one easily.
Bears 27, Vikings 13
3* Giants +3.5 vs. Cowboys
2* Patriots +3.5 -115 @ Broncos
2* Ravens -5.5 vs. Browns
2* Bills -3 -125 vs. Jets
NFL Totals (12-7-0, +14.30*)
4* Jets @ Bills Under 33
3* Dolphins @ Buccaneers Under 35
2* Bengals @ Titans Over 45
2* Patriots @ Broncos Over 46.5
2* Browns @ Ravens Under 35
i'm with you on the Mich, TT, Titans/Bengals over,
PSU falls behind and they are done - Robinson can't throw
consistantlly without INT's
TT - even if they look ahead a little, they should still rout
Cincy/Tenn over - Tenn secondary is terrible, plus i think McNair can put up 17 on Cincy
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Razz's Weekend Plays, 10/15-10/16
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