[FindTheLock]

Once again, it's clear that none of you sharp as a marble roosters ever played a down of football in your life. This game isn't about a rematch from 2 years ago, the ravens playing up, Ray Lewis and Ed Reed being certifiable badasses, the pat's soft schedule, Tebow's revenge, your mom's special panties, nada.

The NFL is about matchups and x's and o's. I've asked in multiple threads how ravens stop all 4 weapons by playing man. Can't. Pats play like the pats and they win by 2 or 3 TD's. The ravens need +4 turnover margin and Flacco to play the game of his life to have a chance. Hey, it happens (ask the niners), but it is statistically unlikely. +EV play is Pats. I'd really love to see Bellicheat lose so hard that his annoying face explodes, but putting money on it is a sucker bet.

you must have played on offensive position.

[Ernie Mccracken]

you must have played on offensive position.

First lesson of summer practice: the defense is always wrong. This isn't the 70's. A well executed offense that doesn't beat itself is almost impossible to stop.

[FindTheLock]

First lesson of summer practice: the defense is always wrong. This isn't the 70's. A well executed offense that doesn't beat itself is almost impossible to stop.

the lesson the packers and the saints learned at their own peril. Defense and being able to run for first downs late in the game wins championships.

[Ernie Mccracken]

the lesson the packers and the saints learned at their own peril. Defense and being able to run for first downs late in the game wins championships.

Myth. Offense wins more consistently than defense.

[FindTheLock]

Myth. Offense wins more consistently than defense.

read what I wrote in it's entirety. Don't read what you want to see. Read what I wrote.

[ThaTopMoron]

Ravens +9.... i am liking that.

[No coincidences]

Why take the 9 and pay that kind of juice vs. the 7.5 LB?

[Djstucky]

Why take the 9 and pay that kind of juice vs. the 7.5 LB?

Better yet...why not play the Pats and win the bet???

[Deol]

Your truly the first auto-fade I have ever seen. Now I'm positive NE is winning, but will they cover. I was leaning BAL ML, but now with you on it, I'll just take the points (BAL+7.5). Thanks!!!

[No coincidences]

Your truly the first auto-fade I have ever seen. Now I'm positive NE is winning, but will they cover. I was leaning BAL ML, but now with you on it, I'll just take the points (BAL+7.5). Thanks!!!

[Brett Cruise]

Anybody who likes baltimore-9 probably loved denver-15. Not the ravens defense of old, not the ray rice of seasons past. New england statement game.

[Mr Handicapable]

Myth. Offense wins more consistently than defense.

I'm tired of that myth too

SF 5 SBs Joe Montana/Steve Young/Jerry Rice....had a good defense too but always an offensive team

Dallas 3 SBs Aikman/Emmitt/Irvin.....mediocre defense pretty much except for Darren Woodson

Denver 2 SBs Elway/Terrell Davis

Peyton 1-1 SBs offensive team
Warner 1-2 SBs offensive teams
Rodgers 1-0 offensive team
Brees 1-0

For this game....Belechik & Brady get payback. Ray Rice's 3 yd runs aren't going to keep up and Flacco doesn't have enough weapons. NE big

[lakerboy]

Your truly the first auto-fade I have ever seen. Now I'm positive NE is winning, but will they cover. I was leaning BAL ML, but now with you on it, I'll just take the points (BAL+7.5). Thanks!!!

So you were leaning on the Ravens ML but because of me you wont play it?

You must be dumb as fukk.

[lakerboy]

Anybody who likes baltimore-9 probably loved denver-15. Not the ravens defense of old, not the ray rice of seasons past. New england statement game.

Actually anyone who likes balty +9 not -9 probably liked denver +9 versus pitts. Anyone who lays -7.5 or more on the pats here is crazy. This game will be either very close or balty wins comfortably.

The pats game versus the broncos means nothing here.

[t-wizzle]

Actually anyone who likes balty +9 not -9 probably liked denver +9 versus pitts. Anyone who lays -7.5 or more on the pats here is crazy. This game will be either very close or balty wins comfortably.

The pats game versus the broncos means nothing here.

Are you adding to your play? I honestly was expecting you to unload on Baltimore the moment that line came out.

[bigsmitty]

Call me crazy baby.

[Madison]

The line is far more likely to go to 7 than it is to 10. +9 -130 is a terrible price nonetheless. Much better to be on the +7.5 -107/-108 that is available.

Why is it that for many this so hard to understand? (Rhetorical)

[lakerboy]

Are you adding to your play? I honestly was expecting you to unload on Baltimore the moment that line came out.

I might add more on the ML. The ravens were pounded hard today at pinny. The ml was hammered all the way down to +256 at one point. There is no doubt that the ravens cover the #. Winning the game is gonna be touch and go. There is support for both sides by heavy hitters.

[lakerboy]

Not worse than your bets...Pinny line is -340 +297 atm, but Fakerboy is sharper surely.

whats the pinny line now?

[isotopes]

I'm really not big on the pats this year. Their defense is just god aweful and Baltimore has a really good D, good enough that they can limit the pats to 21 points. I also read a shocking statistic, which someone would have to verify or clarify, but this years patriots team is the only team EVER to make the playoffs without beating a team OVER .500? I was pretty shocked when I read that, I haven't checked up on it, or if it meant that the teams were all .500 or less at the time they played or at the end of the year, but if that is correct, than Balt should give the Pats a run for their money.

With that said, Baltimore's offense was just god aweful at home last weekend, even against this pats D how do they put up points? Tough game.

[isotopes]

I'm really not big on the pats this year. Their defense is just god aweful and Baltimore has a really good D, good enough that they can limit the pats to 21 points. I also read a shocking statistic, which someone would have to verify or clarify, but this years patriots team is the only team EVER to make the playoffs without beating a team OVER .500? I was pretty shocked when I read that, I haven't checked up on it, or if it meant that the teams were all .500 or less at the time they played or at the end of the year, but if that is correct, than Balt should give the Pats a run for their money.

With that said, Baltimore's offense was just god aweful at home last weekend, even against this pats D how do they put up points? Tough game.

I just looked into that stat about the teams that the Patriots beat, not a single one of them was over .500 at the end of the year:

Miami 6-10
Jets 8-8
San Diego 8-8
Dallas 8-8
Philly 8-8
Indy 2-14
Washington 5-11
Denver 8-8
Kansas City 7-9
Oakland 8-8

a decent amount of 8-8 teams, but still a pretty impressive statistic and they played some of these teams (Dallas and Philly in particular) when they were playing like complete crap. By no means are the patriots a lock this weekend, although I hope they cover the -7.5!!

Alot of 8-8 teams, but still a pretty shocking statistic

[raydog]

uggh...lb, horrible boss...the ml play is horrid, but not as bad as wasting extra juice money on a dead number...you are better than this, i thought...

[Jonny Fairplay]

The 09 game is the most overblown storyline of this game. These are two very different teams now.

[Djstucky]

What is funny is everybody gets so side tracked about the Pats defense not being any good. They aren't relying on the defense to win this game or any game for that matter. Sure defensive teams usually do better in playoff games but it's not unheard-of for a offensive heavy attack to fair well. Not to mention this is a team that can run from time to time and has unlimited players that can catch the ball. Baltimores only chance to stay in this game is to get pressure on Brady all game long. I don't think they will have much luck and unless the refs overlook 15 men (on the field at one time) trying to cover welker,
hernandez, gronk, branch, etc is impossible. Regardless who you like or who you back best of luck to everyone. I just think the ravens are a bit overmatched here...this is the type of game that will take take 4 or 5 td's for the ravens to win. They will struggle to do this. Pats D looked pretty decent last game...if they come to okay this may end up 38-10 or so...

[lakerboy]

uggh...lb, horrible boss...the ml play is horrid, but not as bad as wasting extra juice money on a dead number...you are better than this, i thought...

How is the ml a horrid play? So if balty closes at +6.5 -110 I would have payed 20 cents for 2.5 points. A 31-23 final isn't possible?

[GunShard]

This game looks like a Patriots ML, Ravens +7.

[bigsmitty]

Joe Flacco...

[Tree Rollins]

dammit. I was rooting for the Ravens to. No point in even watching the game now. Pats going to the Super Bowl yet again...

[JR007]

LB could be this game like your "masterpiece" from last year Jets/ pats spread and moneyline

[lakerboy]

I sure hope so JR

[Scully]

The fukking pats beat the shitbox broncos and now they are handing out 9 point spreads for this team. This was -6.5 yesterday now 9.5. Gimme a break. Perception is that Balty barely beat the Texans while in reality the texans could have beaten both balty and the pats with Schaub healthy. The texans are a damn good team and beating them wasnt gonna be easy.


The ravens will be able to run the ball here unlike Denver because even though Flacco isnt that great he will get more respect than Tebow by the pats d ( tebow got none and deserved none).
Flacco had a shit game today versus one of the top defenses in the NFL. HE should make some plays in the next game.

Im all over the Ravens in this game.

Ravens ML +290 (3x)

Ravens +9 -130 (10x)

Biggest & most sure NFL Lock of the year.

[odog11]

LB could be this game like your "masterpiece" from last year Jets/ pats spread and moneyline

If you do the same thing over and over, hit less than half the time, when you do hit, it ain't no masterpiece. What's the record on your "lock" "play of the year" "ALL over it" post this year? Pats -7 -103, I am locked in Ravens ML would have some value at right around +300, but can't get that, so I definitely advise Pats -7. Locked in at -7 -103 and feelin' good about it. Give me something other than "pats D sucks" or "Ravens smash Brady" to convince me I shouldn't.

[JR007]

If you do the same thing over and over, hit less than half the time, when you do hit, it ain't no masterpiece. What's the record on your "lock" "play of the year" "ALL over it" post this year? Pats -7 -103, I am locked in Ravens ML would have some value at right around +300, but can't get that, so I definitely advise Pats -7. Locked in at -7 -103 and feelin' good about it. Give me something other than "pats D sucks" or "Ravens smash Brady" to convince me I shouldn't.

ok here you go, pinny opened at -350 now down to -300 Pats, despite sports-spy having 67% of the bets on the pats, bookmaker opened at -325, bet to -350, now down to -315
greek remains stable......down 5 cents, line has dropped 1/2 point from 7.5

Here is analysis from one of the smartest cappers, I have ever come across in all these websites:

"AFC Championsip
Ravens +7.5 -113
Going to take advantage of the market knee jerk and get in on the Ravens now. Don't see 7.5's getting cheaper during the week. I was short both teams in the divisional game and during the regular season. But the Ravens are the best all around team remaining and have a very good chance of taking it in New England. The Pats still not out of the woods with their defensive deficiencies. Ravens should have a much easier time with this Pats defense. Expect success on the ground and in the air. Ravens veteran defense is the ideal defense to curtail the strengths of the Pats offense. Ravens vulnerable against speed offenses not scheming ones like the Pats bring to the table. Ravens have given the Pats problems in the past. Pats priced for perfection, and with a defense like that, they are far from perfect. Spread should be much lower. Market will probably take this one down into the close".

" I never , ever place a bet on an NFL game until I read what this gentleman has to say, that is how much I respect his knowledge and opinion

[5mike5]

i think theres too much value in ravens ML...i just have to have that play, regardless weather what my other wagers are

[Redchevy]

LB could be this game like your "masterpiece" from last year Jets/ pats spread and moneyline

"Masterpiece"? Are you for real or just an imaginary friend?