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Divisional round of the playoffs - 1/14/12 - Ea$y Green
Gentlemen:
I promised a writeup on all of the games, and I am going to deliver. Let's get to it.
New Orleans at San Francisco
The Saints come into this game never having won a road playoff game, but with a neutral site Super Bowl win (on artificial surface) a couple years back. The 49ers, on the other hand, have not been to the playoffs in quite some time nor have they been relevant over the last few years --- but had a solid showing this year, obviously.
Drew Brees has been better than advertised on natural surfaces, but the Saints as a team have not been near the blowout/ATS covering team they were at home this year, 8-0. Nevertheless, late in the year, they had a solid performance against the Titans on the road. While Tennessee is not the caliber of San Francisco, they do have a similar team in many ways, and they are a divisional opponent who knows NO well.
The keys to the game are Alex Smith and the type of game Harbaugh calls against the Saints blitzing defense. To his credit, Smith has done well against the blitz this year. Still, the 49ers have had tremendous difficulty in the red zone this year, which is not a good sign, especially for a team who hasn't been in the playoff atmosphere; they haven't been here with nearly any of these players. To max protect, they bring their biggest weapons in tight (Davis and Gore), which limits them greatly on offense.
While New Orleans gave up a lot on fast track last year to Seattle in the first round, this team is different. The WRs are healthy and Brees is arguably the best in the game, or right next to Rodgers and Brady. Sproles has been a spectacular addition. The shoddy turf may play a role, but the weapons and the experience are going to be tough for SF to handle. I can see SF squeaking one out, but I don't see them winning big in any scenario, whereas I can see NO win by double digits. When all is said and done, the likelihood the Saints D turns it over and capitalizes as compared to SF is much higher, and I predict a final score of New Orleans 24-16.
Recommended wagers:
If you bet it straight, go with the Saints -3.5, but I personally like the 2 team teaser, Saints +3.5 and UNDER 54.
Denver at New England
Brady is special, hungry and focused. The problem is the New England defense. It can come up big every once in a while (and did the last time at Denver) but it is really that bad. One thing I see as overrated in this game is the Belichick angle: He is not good recently off the extra week, and to be quite honest, his defense is just not talented enough to do what he wants. When he didn't have players (like Brady) he didn't do that much. Offensively, that TE juggernaut is awesome, and Welker is great, but Denver did a decent job against him last time.
For some reason, NE tends to start out slow. They will be gunning this time, knowing they have to absolutely crush Denver early to set the tone. The problem is that their defense relative to Denver is not that good, and Denver can control the ball, especially since they believe so much in Tebow and all of the running options. Clearly, if they can pressure him enough back on his side of the field, it could be a long day on the road. No doubt. But I see Tebow spreading it wide, running, and making enough throws in a John Fox formula to make Brady sweat a little bit. I'm predicting Denver being VERY close at the half or leading, even. Ultimately, I think New England squeaks it out in a very tight one, possibly on a 2 minute drill by TB, 27-24.
Recommend wagers:
1H Denver +7.5
Denver +13.5
Houston at Baltimore
Baltimore, a significant favorite in this game, comes home with a good defense and a schizophrenic offense. Houston comes off a good home win with a rookie QB going on the road with a tendency to push the run with Arian Foster, for better or worse. Baltimore scoring or Houston pressuring them early to get a lead is paramount: We've seen Baltimore abandon Ray Rice all too much with surprising upset defeats when Flacco is "forced" (though not sure why, Coach Harbaugh) to throw earlier than desired. Wade Phillips is one of the best defensive minds in the game. The teams played earlier this year and have some idea of what they want to do, and as I've said, the start of this game is probably more important to both teams than any other game apart from DEN/NE. I still think the beginnings to this are more important. Ultimately, I see it as 20-17 either way, let's say Houston 20, Baltimore 17.
Recommended wagers:
Houston +8
New York Giants at Green Bay
What a game to finish the weekend! Green Bay is healthy, with Jennings, Bulaga and Clifton back in the mix, and feeling good at home. The Giants can, and will, run the ball with their two head monster, of which Bradshaw sticks out as a bruiser/game breaker. The game will be decided on how much pressure each team can get on the QBs (as it is in every NFL game, I know) but it is far more important for the Giants with their front four and relatively injured secondary. The Green Bay linebackers (Hawk and Bishop) who weren't in the lineup last time will return, and this should set up a different scenario for Dom Capers' scheme against Eli Manning, who has a healthy WR core. God knows that the Packers are high risk/reward against the pass, and will aim to turn Eli over to pressure each offensive series on the road this time. In the end, Green Bay's offense, big play capability, and home field edge will be enough ... I think the public's love of the G-men is overrated and even though GB's offensive edge is reflected in the line, the GB corners are going to come up big enough to bring back the "Manning face" in a tough scenario for Eli on the road. Of all the games, I see this one as the most probable as a double digit difference: Green Bay 31, New York 20.
Recommended wagers:
Green Bay -7.5
Additionally, I love the 4 team 13 point teaser:
NO/SF UNDER 60
Denver +26.5
Houston +21
Green Bay +5.5
Best of luck to all this weekend. Let's get that green.
Stackin'Green
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Originally Posted by Nivas the guru
