Originally Posted by
suicidekings
The hostility in this thread is funny.
The one point I'd add regarding SF's defense is that their big strength is in their ability to stop the running game (They're ranked #1 in rushing defense). Their strength against powerful passing attacks is not nearly as robust. Romo put up 345 yards against them, playing half the game with a broken rib. Vick threw for 416 yards. Several others managed 300+ yard days despite multiple sacks & interceptions cutting their production. Seeing as SF's path right now would likely be the Saints, then the Packers (and then potentially the Patriots), they have virtually no chance of running all the way to the Superbowl.
That being said, Brees is the best QB they will face this season, to date, who is defended by one of the best Offensive Lines in the NFL (NO is ranked #1 at Football Outsiders), and throwing to one of the deepest and most talented receiving corps around. SF has particular trouble with RBs receiving out of the backfield (Sproles) and has a much harder time with QBs who spread the ball around to multiple receivers rather than focusing on their top #1/2 options.
SF is a good team, but they don't have the firepower to win a shootout. They should have some success in containing the NO running game (although NO is loaded at the RB position as well) but when it comes down to stopping Brees and the NO passing game, I find it hard to believe that SF is going to be very successful. Detroit has a better secondary than SF and the Saints ripped it apart tonight, simply because Brees had as much time as he needed to sit in the pocket and wait for his receivers to find space for him. The mismatch between SF's pass rush and NO's pass protection is just as extreme as the one we saw tonight (SF is ranked #22 in pass rushing).
I'm not in a huge hurry to bet the Saints because I have futures on them already, but I like them at -3 and will watch the price to get the best deal possible. Anyone taking the Niners on the premise that "defense wins championships" or "home dogs have value" is going to be disappointed because this game really comes down to the matchup issues listed above. IMO, the Niners dream season is over.