If you are just looking for the pick, you are going to have do a little scrolling. If you want to learn about winning at preseason NFL read on…
At first glance this article may appear to be just one of dozens, hundreds, or even thousands of articles you will see this time of the year. The difference here is we will not only point out some of the tips in betting the NFL’s pre-season but we will apply the practices and show that picking your spots in August can be profitable!
Before we go there, let’s talk about betting the NFL as a whole and acknowledge that in American football the NFL is by far the toughest to handicap. The parity, salary caps, and free agency has made the NFL more difficult to not only predict the winner of a game but also who cover the spread. The college ranks bring far more value from a betting perspective then the NFL but that’s another topic we will take on later. This brings me to the point that the pre-season can be easier to predict then the regular season.
Talent differential will apply more in the pre-season then any other point in the year and you have to take advantage of this fact. I am not talking about the starters either, who will see extremely limited action until game 3 or 4 and then… will only play the first half. Some teams are thin of the offensive side of the ball and some are thin on the defensive side. It is imperative to review the entire roster of all 30 NFL teams (yes, know the entire roster) and look for the match ups that bring a strong second or third team offense against a thin defense or vice versa. The obvious spot to look at is the QB position. A strong second and third team QB will make drives in the later stages of a pre-season game. An opportunity exists if you can find a team that has two QB’s that are fighting for the number one spot. The other key positions I recommend taking a close look at is the defensive back and running back positions because a talented running back will rip through a weak secondary. The per-season line rarely reflects the talent gap of the second and third string players.
Emotions play a big part in the pre-season and this often gets overlooked. Coaches and Players will circle some games and will make all out efforts to win a pre-season game. Matching up a game that is important to one team and not the other usually spells blowout. If the game is important to the starters they will jack up the second and third team players all week in practice and during the game the starters will be involved on the sidelines throughout. This is especially true for home games and we will talk more about that later.
Coaching and coaching changes is the next category I scout when looking at pre-season match-ups. A new coach usually means new offensive schemes. It takes time to gel as an offensive unit in the NFL. We typically see lower scoring games in early August as the defenses have advantages in the first games played; this is even truer when a new coach or offensive coordinator is taking on an established defensive unit. Coaches also have tendencies in the pre-season as some coaches want to win all their games and others only want to escape injury free.
The prime example is Tony Dungy who publicly admits he just wants to get through the pre-season with as few injuries as possible.
Schedules can be you best friend when trying to handicap a pre-season game and I urge you review each teams schedule paying close attention to their home games and their records when playing at home. Here are a couple examples of scheduling and some things to look for. The Philadelphia Eagles opened the season in the Hall of Fame game on Sunday night and play their 2nd pre-season on Thursday night just 4 days later. Track the team’s performance, wins, and losses. A team that plays its first game at home and then plays 2 on the road is more likely to put a greater effort in this first game.
Injuries have to be reviewed for all games and all teams!
Trends are the last thing I target in pre-season foots and I look at them for a different reason. In the pre-season I look for the trend that is changing and making a swing back the other way. For example, the Indianapolis Colts were 0 – 5 in preseason last year but over the last 5 years they are 12 – 12. The Colts were 12 – 7 entering last pre-season. The more Tony Dungy tells us that he just wants out of the pre-season with limited injuries the more I believe him. Let’s take a look at the NY Jets who were decimated by injuries last season and enter this year with a new coach and huge questions on both sides of the ball. It just so happens that the Jets are 10 – 2 straight up in home pre-season games over the last 5 years, now that is a trend worth watching!
Now, let’s put this into action and look at the August 11th game between the Atlanta Falcons and the New England Patriots.
NFL Pick: August 11th, 2006 8:00 PM EST NFL Pre-Season NE Patriots at Atlanta Falcons
Let’s look first at the QB position and all agree that Belichick is not going to risk Tom Brady. Brady will be one and done.
The Pats back up QB’s are Matt Cassell, Corey Bramlett and Todd Mortensen. Who?
Atlanta brings Matt Schaub and D.J Shockley to the table and in my opinion, Matt would be a starter on half of the NFL teams out there. D. J might just bring some problems with his ability to scramble.
Advantage to Atlanta.
In the coaching department no one will argue that Bill is one of, if not the, best out there. However, this is a huge match for Mora as the Falcons went 2 – 6 in their L8 games and Mora is under pressure. Combine this with the schedule, and this game means even more to Mora. After this opener the Falcons do not return home until their last pre-season game. That just about covers emotions and schedules angles. The injuries have hit the Patriots TE and receiving core as Deion Branch is a hold out, Troy Brown and Chad Jackson are missing practice time, and Daniel Graham is not practicing at all.
The only trend I really looked at here is the fact that home teams are wining pre-season openers more and more each year. Take the Falcons.
Play: Atlanta -3
By the way, you better grab that 3 while you can as this line will only move up!
Last edited by SBRforum Staff; 08-08-06 at 09:48 AM.
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Preseason NFL Play and Advice from Mark "The Shark" Miller
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