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Wait a minute, you can't possibly be counting those as three separate wins in your quest for 18-5?? You teased them all 10 points ffs. Anyone could do that. Even if was a 3 way parlay I still would call it questionable as a counter for your 18-5. To really do it you should be betting straight spreads and totals (or props), basically anything that runs about -110.
For guys like you, someone could show 60% over 300 picks and you'd still call it small sample size. That's what is so weak about these boards sometimes, people always change the goal posts. They have decided that "you can't beat this game" so nothing is good enough.
Eh, so be it.
I didn't
I didn't, currently my wins have been NO -8.5, Pit/Cle under 40, that last teaser, and NYG is pending ...Originally Posted by grizzlies1
(as for your -110 point, I agree, it's just that my challengers said I could use teasers so I did today --- I most likely will not go back to them after that winner today)
Nice, thanks for clearing that up. Best of Luck.
Grizz, you seem to be a straight thinker/shooter. Do you think an 18-5 run or better when calling for/on it is legitimate/nonrandom/impressive?
Not at all bud. I stand behind my original comments. If you do accomplish it, it will be cool and less of a random result based on your previous record. I will definitely give you your props
However, I know you are not saying that 23 plays added onto your previous 40 plays really represents a statistically relevant sample size....right? We both know that is not the case.
Plus, we all know your so-called "quest" doesn't mean anything. I still don't get it, just trying to figure out what you are trying to prove. I think it's great if you do it and I'm rooting for ya, but what does it prove?
And I'm not trying to diminish your hot start, don't say that dude. I was just pointing out that actual plays posted in this thread was 3-0, not 4-0. You started the thread out with a win that was never posted in this thread. That's not a bad or good thing, just a fact.
I'm rooting for ya, hopefully you get this Giants game (and it goes over).
Interesting question. It definitely is random i.e why 18-5? It's definitely impressive, perhaps a few times in a lifetime impressive. I hit a 14-0 streak in Febuary, not intentional just an incredible run and doubt it will ever happen again. I think you have a legitimate shot at it judging by your start and your previous comeback thread which I followed a bit.
You mean like the time I laid 23 units on Iowa State earlier this season, ignored line movement and got killed?haha - its worked for 5 weeks?
i know...have seen you thumping your chest a lot lately.
i love you nocoin - one day hopefully you'll realize that its ok to take a "square" play sometimes.
can you please stop with the capping games stuff? all you ever say is "i dont see the angle", yet you never mention what type of angles you look at. you look at line changes, and public %'s....there is nothing wrong with that, just admit it. thats why you get so much shit from people on here.
How in the f\*\*k do you know how I cap and select games? You don't know me. You see the plays I make but have no idea what goes into my selections. Just because I don't post a 20 paragraph analysis of my plays doesn't mean I'm making picks based on line movement only. If I did, I wouldn't make any bets -- or even leans for that matter -- until 5 minutes before kickoff, first pitch or tip. Correct me if I'm wrong, but I post leans on plays that cash earlier than most on this site. That has nothing to do with line movement, public % or anything else.
Do I pay close attention to line movement? Of course. Is that a big part of my capping process? Of course. But if that's all I did, I'd be broke by now. You can't just read lines and nothing else, just like you can't just cap games and ignore line movement. If you did, you'd be out of this game in a hurry. Thanks for giving me credit for being nothing more than that.
Your condescension can be really fvcking annoying sometimes.
I posted that play before half time of the NO game, when the play could have lost. I already had the play on record. I can prove it on my emails. I thought the story would prove to be interesting, so I made a thread about it.Not at all bud. I stand behind my original comments. If you do accomplish it, it will be cool and less of a random result based on your previous record. I will definitely give you your props
However, I know you are not saying that 23 plays added onto your previous 40 plays really represents a statistically relevant sample size....right? We both know that is not the case.
Plus, we all know your so-called "quest" doesn't mean anything. I still don't get it, just trying to figure out what you are trying to prove. I think it's great if you do it and I'm rooting for ya, but what does it prove?
And I'm not trying to diminish your hot start, don't say that dude. I was just pointing out that actual plays posted in this thread was 3-0, not 4-0. You started the thread out with a win that was never posted in this thread. That's not a bad or good thing, just a fact.
I'm rooting for ya, hopefully you get this Giants game (and it goes over).
After this I won't bother in "proving" anything to anyone. I know my NFL record for the last 10 years. It's very very good, believe it or not. You can decide.
so can you coming into my thread to point out how a huge wager of mine was made at a poor # earlier in the week.
like i was really going to add more then 5u i had on the giants at +3.5 when the line went to 4.5.
I don't mind a nice back and forth conversation but please don't hijack the thread.
Line movement should not influence your handicapping of the game. I know this is a somewhat picky point but it must be said --- it should affect your wagering on the game. Big difference.
Cappin' comes first, then projected cover % based on line, price, etc. which ultimately leads you to how much you put on it
Movement can be valuable, but mostly when you don't know AS much about the teams playing, for whatever reason. If I knew little about NFL or analyzing it, I would use this (if I felt I had to bet or just loved betting for entertainment) method.
Now you've got it! Exactly. You didn't need to prove anything to anyone in the first place. As long as you are a historically profitable capper, then that's all that counts. You just posted this thread trying to prove something to people who either never doubted you or don't care. The only thing that matters is that you believe in your abilities and are profitable. Nothing else matters, especially "proving" something in an online forum.
Agree 100%
kool
you had the saints play posted pre-game in your other thread. did you forget? lol
I referred to that.
Keep up the good work man I've got a corner of my bankroll following your plays.
I can't be denied right now.
relax.....we can still lose on a TD in regulation or OT...I can't be denied right now.
LET'S DRINK SUCKKAAAASSSS
Anything for tomorrow?I can't be denied right now.
Nice call SG.
In the end, Dallas did what Dallas does best.
Let's not get greedy.
This is gonna last.
Fair enough. I thought about it after I posted, no point in rushing things. On to next week!
and FOR ONCE IT WASNT ROMO'S FAULT..... AMAZING
Oh, by the way ... 4-0.
And I love this week's slate.
Whats the play tonight???
This is the conundrum I'm trying to tell people I'm in:
You'll see more variation week by week if you bet more frequently. Thus, my good but not great performance when pressured to make plays. When disciplined and not urged to make anything but top plays, my NFL expertise truly comes out.
I think in the long run what you've seen from me in sparing, but higher advantage plays is worth more than the constant action that you may want (but leads to lesser results).
That said, I'm still analyzing tonight's game and may play it. As I've told others, I'll have at least 2 and probably 3 plays this weekend, which I really like.
Any hints on who those plays are or do you prefer to wait?
Regardless, you do a good job on here and one of the few posters who do it in a respectable manner. GL
That's one of the marks of a good handicapper dude, not forcing plays. I'll check back in Sunday for some tips!
23-13 Falcons.
MJD keeps that clock moving tonight....get some
I agree, I cannot and will not play the Jaguars, but I have a feeling Atlanta wins by 10-13 ... but I might have a teaser including tonight's game.
You like that, Dex?
If I release that, I might as well include the other games I really like this week.
The winners are coming.
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