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***PEACHdog*** MAJOR SUPERBOWL official writeup / annual edition
Before you take your pick, setup this read and let this help your final decission on what play to make.
It's the anual PEACHdog superbowl pick. Were on a roll, and there is a reason. We know football! and we know how to play the superbowl lines.
The ML is +210 for Arizona, at a -6.5 average -105 what? the ML should be closer to +290 than anything, but why is it only +210? EASY ANSWER.
Las Vegas linemakers have been told not to worry about who they think is going to win, and the books have demanded their managers to run a BASE LINE. Bettors will spit the spread, and the ML won't even be a play at most books.
They very well understand what happened last season. The books lost millions on the GIANTS win. Why? cause line consultants made a big mistake, and the book managers screwed up taking a big hit on the line. This season they have to screw the value for the bettor, and allow the spread to do it's work for the books.
The Las Vegas book Drapers have been settling for low ML value all NFL playoffs to get a feel for what Superbowl betting will be.
Nobody has EVER mentioned this during the playoffs, but believe me, PEOPLE HAVE BEEN TALKING ABOUT THIS in Las Vegas, and the LARGE PLAYERS around the world. They saw it coming late December, and they were prepared for it.
Remember this extremely well when placing your bet and looking at the lines. The lines are not legit!
------------------ LOOK AT THE GAME-------------------
The Pittsburgh Steelers are favoured. WHY? 2 months ago, everybody called out the Steelers. Ben Roethlisbeger is overrated, blah blah blah. What happened? Easy road to the Superbowl? possibly. Look at the superbowl road for both teams. Not even close is it?
The STEELERS have a big advantage on defense no question, but they haven't faced an offense like this all season. When facing a decent offense, they have struggled(COLTS, COWBOYS)
The STEELERS defense will have troubles with the Cardinals multiple receiver formation. Lebeau and Tomlin have stated that they are vulnerable in a 3-4 defense when forced to take a LB late in the presnap and roll him outside. They have adjusted, and they contain Woodley to the inside, and allow Foote, or Farrior to actually play 2-3 yards off strong side circle and get them into coverage. GOOD IDEA! but- you have to be carefull with Warners' release. Boldin can have a field day with quick catches and allow him to run up field.
The STEELERS offense is not that good. They are very vulnerable when blitzed, and extremely weak when put into 3rd down with long yardage to go. Why? Because the setups are BASE with motion receivers. They need 4 step drop protection, and they need Big Ben to step UP into the pocked not once, maybe twice to allow Ward, or Washington to break free. This will not work with Cardinals secondary extremely good at playing side to side.
*BIG GAME BREAK*
Something that gives teams problems when facing the STEELERS is when Big Ben changes the play before the snap. Most times it's a 5 yard pass to the first down sticks. What makes this so effective? It forces oponents to take steps away from their coverage spots. With the Steelers motioning RB/FB and possibly a TE, the Cardinals are going to have to move their LB's around, and which ever opposite side the defense is not on BLOCK END coverage, it usually forces that secondary player to press/bump, because they have to wait for Big Ben to make the first read- why? - Cause the FS becomes 3/4 zone back and by the time he recovers from his read, it will be too late to get to the receiver(Santonio Holmes situation) This why The Cardinals will have troubles with the Steelers short passing game if Big Ben recognizes when to call the plays, and makes the correct reads. HE WILL DO IT, and HE WILL BE EFFECTIVE.
The above situation will very crucial for the Steelers to attack the Cardinals. Maybe the biggest aspect of scouting the Steelers will reveal that Roethlisbergers short passing game attacking this area of the field will move the ball in possesion, and possibly break a receiver open for a long yardage gain.
The Arizona Cardinals are for real. Yes they were 9-7 but lets forget about the experts calling the Cardinals overrated, and try to understand how far the Cardinals have come as a football franchise. The past 5 seasons the Cardinals have played contending teams very well, and struggled against weaker oponents. This season it happened on many occasions, but the road to the superbowl for the Cardinals has been about winning the must-win games. Road or Home! They've achieved the result the past 3 weeks.
*BIG GAME BREAK*
The Arizona Cardinals motor runs on the offensive gameplan. The passing attack. The weakest aspect of the Cardinals offense the past 3 seasons is that no coaching staff has been able to complement the passing game with a running game. This season Ken Whisenhunt and Todd Haley focused on attacking the sidelines with the pass/run. They've been able to move their interior OL to the LB level very well this season and that allows for pulling G, or T and get FB blocking wider from the OL sets rather than congesting the OL box. This has allowed for Tim Hightower to use his ability to break outside and get 1 on 1 blocking from Boldin/Fitzgerald. The Steelers are going to have a very difficult time trying to contain these plays because in a 3-4 drop area protect coverage. Ryan Clark the safety has to allow the playside OLB to make contact with an offensive player first, then as the play develops the Steelers will have to escape the protection, and this is when Ryan Clark and the playside CB needs to make the decission which side to contain. The weakness for the Steelers comes if the Cardinals protect and get the block from the receiver, the Steelers will be too digested to break the blocks, and won't have the yardage to contain the over-zone coverage they got themselves into before the Cardinals running back breaks it to the sidelines and then up field. Now granted if the Steelers linebackers bulldoze every Cardinals player then they won't have to worry about over zone coverage, and Troy Polamalu will just make every single tackle behind LOS. But that won't happen unless the Cardinals make fiscal mistakes.
The Arizona Cardinals defense is very capable of containing the Steelers offense. No question the Cardinals secondary is top 10 in the NFL, and they may be the difference maker in this game. Rogers-Cromartie/Rolle make an outstanding tandem. They can cover, they can bump and protect, and they can run off routes which they have done extremely well the past 3 games. INT anyone? Don't be surprised one of the big 3 secondary players for the Cardinals take a INT a long way more than once.
Linebackers have always been the model block for the Arizona Cardinals the past 20 years. This season they have formed one of the most gifted LB's in Arizona Cardinals history. These guys are fast, outstanding tacklers, and they can cover the entire field.
The weakness for the Cardinals is the interior DL. Darnell Dockett is capable of making plays, but he is quite undersized in his role. He makes plays when the play is over pursued by the OL, and finds a lane to the RB/QB. The Steelers are going to try to run the ball, and run often. If Arizona is scoring can they do this for 60 minutes and even wish to keep pace with the Cardinals time of possession? good question.
I will make my PREDICTION, and BET TO MAKE shortly.
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Originally Posted by jaymac82980
aNnUaL SUPERBOWL PICK ----------} revealed 
