[Huego]

I grabbed 49ers +3800 at 5dimes on October 12th. Feel very good about the bet.

They have a very good chance of finishing second in the NFC. SF has only played 1 divisional game so far. They still have to play the seahawks, cardinals twice and rams twice.

At the price I got, there will be plenty of opportunity to hedge in the playoffs. Grabbing it now at +1000 doesn't have much value. Let's say the niners finish second, their road to the superbowl will be like this:

Divisional Home Game vs a team like Saints/Gaints line will be niners -3/PK
Conference Championship road game vs Packers line will be -7/8 (ML -300+)
Superbowl against AFC line will be AFC -6/7

It's safe to say they'll win the first game at home, but probably lose to Packers in GB. At that point, I would definitely hedge with GB moneyline which will be around -300. This is a steep price to pay only if you're getting +1000 with niners. Not to mention everything has to go perfect for them to even reach that point.

[GunShard]

This isn't MLB and Hockey where the underdogs have a good chance of winning the championship.

The NFL is a skilled sport, the favorites are most likely win each season.

I have the Green Bay Packers projected to repeat the Super Bowl.

[k13]

This isn't the NBA and MLB where the underdogs have a good chance of winning the championship.

The NFL is a skilled sport, the favorites are most likely win each season.

I have the Green Bay Packers projected to repeat the Super Bowl.

Laughable post.

Complete opposite, NBA is the true skill sport with a 7 game series with the fewest upsets. Always the same teams winning the championship.

NFL is ONE game, anything can happen in one game. Couple bad deflections/bounces, QB gets hurt, game over.

Last year people had NE/ATL locked into the super bowl, how did that turn out? Yeah after Atl lost the Packers bandwagon got bigger...


The last 10 years, only like ONE #1 seed has won the Super Bowl.

[k13]

Before the year 2000 the NFL was a game of skill where real teams dominated and won. Things have changed.

[slacker00]

Before the year 2000 the NFL was a game of skill where real teams dominated and won. Things have changed.

Rams won it all in 1999 and they came out of nowhere to do it. The salary cap era, which began in 1994, is really where to draw that line. Granted, existing power franchises like Dallas front loaded the big contracts before the salary cap officially took effect so there was a little bit of lag with SF winning it all in 1994 & Dallas it all winning in 1995. After that, I think we see a lot more parity in the NFL and more teams coming out of nowhere to be competitive (Jax & Car were both in their respective championship game in 1996 in only their 2nd year of existence in the NFL).

[milwaukee mike]

Your numbers are funnier than omar's "16.1%". You really should be arguing directly with him, not me.

omar's numbers were hypothetical, mine were based on what the money lines would be at this point.

do you really think the packers would be less than 7 point favorites against the 49ers at lambeau?

[slacker00]

omar's numbers were hypothetical, mine were based on what the money lines would be at this point.

do you really think the packers would be less than 7 point favorites against the 49ers at lambeau?

Your analysis assumes the 49ers will be going to Lambeau. That's one of my many disagreements. SF is only 1 game behind GB and GB's schedule looking foward is much tougher than SF's. Is very realistic that GB would travel to SF in that possible matchup and GB may not even make it that far if they continue playing like a sieve on defense and get caught flat by a hot team @ Lambeau.

I'm not on the SF bandwagon, FWIW. Giants should give SF a reality check and if one likes SF this will be the test.