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My "Bettor Half": 2nd Half Trend Analysis
This is the article I wrote for my weekly column on The Sports Network. Hopefully you all will enjoy it.
My "Bettor Half": 2nd Half Trend Analysis
By: VegasJack
Week Seven of the NFL Season has arrived.
Gamblers tend to become emotional upon realizing the season is nearly half over. I, on the other hand, find elation in knowing a prosperous betting opportunity is still available for another two and a half months.
In the past few years back testing trends have become an essential part to many handicappers weekly regimen. Numerous websites now have public databases containing years upon years of opening and closing lines. However, the one thing these databases do not have is, historical documentation of second half lines.
According to Jason Thorpe, a bookmaker located in the Bahamas:
“An average second half line will add an additional 25-35% to a games handle. This is more than double what first half lines (15%) and props (8-10%) will add.”
Upon realizing how popular these wagers had become, and the value they possess, I was swift to begin documentation of my own. I have compiled halftime sides and totals from each football and basketball game played over the past two years, both professional and college.
This September began the third year of football documentation. November will begin the third year of basketball documentation.
I have done extensive back testing throughout each league and sport. After countless hours of work, I have developed dozens of profitable situational trends.
Hidden in those trends was a situational trend that turned out to be universal amongst all sports and leagues.
The trend is quick and simple.
Regardless of league or sport, if a game is tied at halftime, play along with the oddsmakers adjustments.
To better understand the trend, let’s take a look at an example from week one of the NFL season.
Week One: New York Giants @ Washington Redskins.
Full Game Line: New York -1
Halftime Line: Washington -1
The score is tied at halftime.
Oddsmakers have Washington listed as a 1 point favorite for the second half.
Since the game is tied, Washington is technically now -1 for the full game.
The public money always goes against the trend. Washington ended up closing at PK to start the 2nd half.
Final score: Washington 28 – New York 14 (Washington 14 – New York 0 2nd Half)
Win and Cover.
This NFL Season has produced six occasions where this trend was active. All six were winning wagers.
I believe this trend works consistently for a number of reasons:
- Halftime wagers put the Oddsmaker against the player in a direct head to head match-up. These lines are based fully on perception of events in the first half. However, Nine times out of ten, the oddsmaker sees events in a way the player does not.
- The betting window for these wagers is open for a very short time. There is next to no market manipulation.
- Volume is limited because many do not have access to a computer to place the wager in time.
- Those that are able to place a wager are likely looking to do one of two things. Double down on their full game wager, or hedge. There is next to no handicapping done by the player when betting second half lines. Nearly every bet placed is strictly impulsive.
- Unlike a full game bet, a second half bet is often ignored by bettors. A majority of the time, players are content with the wager they placed on the full game and see no need to add on, or hedge at halftime.
- These factors dramatically narrow down the audience the bookmaker must cater to. The more the bookmaker knows about the audience, the bigger the edge. Since this trend sides exclusively with the house, each wager placed is backed with a strong sense of confidence.
Please note: This is an exceptional start to the season and by no means do the past results predict the future. I simply am encouraging you to take this into consideration next time you are betting on a halftime line.
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Originally Posted by EPote14
