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Spladle08' Mini-Write Ups/Picks
Having trouble focusing with NCAAF going on so sorry these are so short and lack much thought (and sorry for all typos I rushed through this) but trying to get straight to the point.
STL vs GB: GB -14***
STL (11/28) 0-4 SU, 0-4 ATS 2-1-1 Over/Under
GB (34/22) 5-0 SU, 4-1ATS, 3-2 Over/Under
Not much to write about here, Rams are missing both starting CB’s, have the worst road record in the NFL over the past 4 seasons 4-21 (While the packers have won 7 straight at home and are on an 11 game streak), are only putting up 11pts a game, been outscored 113-46 this season, and with a slew of injuries will have to rely heavily on Jackson running the ball against a D that ranks 3rd against the run. STL doesn’t stand a chance, they lost their first 3 games by 12+ each and the Pack has an 11-3 record ATS over the last 3 seasons against teams with a losing record. 14 is a lot but not for this game. Take Pack, -14
Jags vs Pit: Un 40.5**
Pit (20/17) 3-2 SU and 2-3 ATS
Jack (11/23) 1-4 SU and 1-4 ATS**
Pitt is coming off a crushing of Tennessee (38-17) while Jacksonville just hasn’t been good, giving up 17 to CIncy in the 4th last week to give the game away. Not a lot to say here, in recent history they have had half the games over half under, no team owns a significant number of wins over the other Against the spread, and are actually, 5-5 in the last 10 games played in Pitt. The Jags have lost 3 times this year including a 32-3 pasting by the Jets, but I’m just not sold on Pitt covering 12.5 (if I had to bet I would choose the steelers to cover before the Jags) I like the Under here more. Pitt can score, but has only averaged 20 a game, while the Jags have a young QB and depend heavily on Jones-Drew but don’t expect a ton of production out of him as the Steelers have been solid against the run in recent games, and held Chris Johnson to only 51yrds last week, and for a team only averaging 11 pts a contest, that spells trouble. 7 of 10 games (combined) have gone under this year
Phil vs Wash: Phil -2.5**
This is a spot where several things point to Washington but I have to side Philly
Phil (25/26) 1-4 SU 1-4 ATS 3-1-1 O/U
Wash (20/15) 3-1 SU 3-1 ATS 1-3 O/U
Obviously the Eagles 1-4 record has them motivated to do better. Turnovers will be the main determining factor in this game. Some things working against the Eagles are Washington’s solid D with a great pass rush, The Redskins coming off a Bye-week, and obviously their 1-4 record…Some things that should work in their favor: The fact they pasted this Redskins team a year ago, Deangelo Hall shouldn’t play, Haven’t dropped 5 consecutive games since 98’, and their terrible record (motivation). The Eagles have the talent and could easily be 4-1 but turnovers have plagued them. This is a MUST WIN look for them to rebound and win this one by 2 scores. They also need to STOP THE RUSH!
49’rs vs Det: Det-4.5*, OV 46 ****
SFO (28/15) 4-1 SU 4-0-1 ATS, 4-1 O/U
DET (31/17) 5-0 SU, 4-0-1 ATS, 4-1 O/U
Some key factors for me are: Josh Morgan being out for the Niners putting added pressure on Gore, they are also coming off that huge game against the Bucs and could come out flat against Detroit, traveling from the West could be an issue. They have a stout run D allowing only 76pts per, but the pass D isn’t as stellar giving up 264 per, and I think Stafford-Johnson will add to that. The only thing that stands out as a negative from the Lions perspective is the short week. I think they are still the play here -4.5 but I think the OV 46 is a much stronger play with the 2 teams going over in 8 of 10 games.
Falcons vs Panthers: Panthers +4.5****, OV ***
Falcons (20/26) 2-3 SU 1-4 ATS 3-2 O/U
Panthers (23/26) 1-4 SU 4-1 ATS 4-1 O/U
I liked Falcons at a glance but Carolina has played 5 game this year all decided by 7pts or fewer so the +4.5 is a nice cushion. For ATL, Matt Ryan has been sub-par throwing the 3rd most passes in the NFL but only averaging 239 passing yard per game, and 6INTs this year. He will be without Julio Jones, and with RB Turner being relatively quiet, don’t look for their offense to put up any blow-out numbers, Carolina does have a porous D allowing 26/Game but so does ATL, and with the Newton-Smith connection going on, as well as the various other weapon on the Carolina offense, I look for the Panthers to win this game SU. But with the points, its almost a sure thing. Carolina is 7 of 10 (combined) games have gone over this year. This one should make it over 50 but that depends on ATL’s offense. Panthers +4.5 is a 4 star play while the Over gets 3
Cincy vs Indy: Cincy -7*, OV 40***** LOCKSVILLE
Colts: (17/27) 0-5 SU, 2-3 ATS, 4-1 O/U
Cincy: (22/18) 3-2 SU 4-1 ATS, 4-1 O/U
8 of 10 have gone over. This is a short story; Painter can’t play a complete game but has looked like the best QB in the NFL for a stretch in each of the last 2 games but just can’t keep it up. I thought the Colts were back on track last week vs. the chiefs but they proved me wrong looking like garbage in the second half. The Bengals have the top defense in the NFL allowing 279yrds per game and an average of 18pts. The Bengals also have AJ Green and an improving Dalton vs a weak Indy Secondary and I think Cincy will get their points but the last 4 losses for the Colts have come by an average of 5.5pts per, so Im not thrilled about the 7pt spread, but I am about the OV 40… only 1 game this year of the 10 played between the 2… has gone under 40pts. And that was an 8-13 loss by Cincy to SFO. Over is locksville.
Bills vs Gmen: OV 50****, Bills +3***
Bills (32/24) 4-1 SU 3-2 ATS, 5-0 O/U
Gmen (25/24) 3-2 SU, 3-2 ATS, 4-1 O/U
Obviously 9 of 10 have gone Over. Bills have one it on the ground and through the air, Giants have been heros and zeros, should be an interesting matchup. Bills have beat Oak/Pats/Eagles and look to continue their dominance over big named teams. The Giants have a poor rush D, and will be without Justin Tuck. This will not help with stopping Bills RB (3rd in NFL w/96yrds per) Jackson. The giants do lead the NFL with 18 sacks but the Bills have allowed a league low 4. The Giants have had trouble running the ball so look for them to go to the air but watch out, the Bills have a league high 12 INTs, we all know of Mannings bi-polar performances, so if he is off this one could get ugly, I think the Bills +3 is a steal but the Over is probably the better bet. Goodluck.
Houston vs Bal: Bal -8***, Ov 45 isn’t a bad play either
Bal (25/19) 3-2 SU, 3-2 ATS, 1-4 O/U
Houston (29/14) 3-1 SU, 3-1ATS, 4-0 O/U
Bal has never lost to Houston. Bal is coming off a bye week, Lee Evans is playing, Houston is without Mario, Williams or Andre Johnson Schaub is hurt, Houston will run the ball with Arian Foster more but Baltimore has the 2nd toughest run D in the NFL. This one should be easy with all those factors adding up to a beating. Side note Balt has scored 34+ is 3 of 4 games and is over in all 4, so that might be a play as well.
Clev vs Oak. Clev +7* or Over 44.5***
Oak (27/26) 3-2 SU 4-1 ATS 2-2-1 O/U
Clev (18/23) 2-2 SU 1-3 ATS 3-1 O/U
Yeah yeah yeah another Over, Oak is playing at home for the first time since owner Al Davis passed. Plus they are playing a D that’s 25th against the run so expect Darren McFadden to put on a show. The Browns will be missing both their D end and a starting corner so look for Oakland to put up points. Despite having a great O, Oakland has a terrible D, so Cleveland may be able to put up some points. I would normally lean the way of Oakland to cover but Cleveland has covered the spread in 7 of the last 8 games so I can’t pull the trigger. Going with Clev +7 for 1 star or the Over-3 stars.
NE vs Dallas: NE -6.5** and OV 55.5***** LOCKSVILLE
NE(33/23) 4-1 SU 4-1 ATS 4-1 O/U
Dallas (24/25) 2-2 SU 1-2-1 ATS 3-1 0/U
I’ll just get this one out of the way quickly. Miles Austin+Dez Bryant+ Romo only being sacked once….. playing against the league’s worst pass D = big points. Tom Brady & Company = Big Points. 7 of 9 have gone over. Meh Lock it up OVER 55.5. I’m only siding with the Pats as far as the spread goes because they are 4-1 against. And have won the last 3 meetings with the Boys.
NO vs Tampa Bay: NO -4.5****; UNDER**
NO (31/25) 4-1 SU, 3-2 ATS, 3-2 O/U
TB( 17/25) 3-2 SU, 2-3 ATS, 4-1 O/U
NO has won the last 2 meetings @ TB 31-6 and 38-7, 4 of 4 in the series has gone UNDER the total. Freeman has thrown 6INT’s this year but shouldn’t be a problem as the Saints only have 4 take aways. What should matter for the Bucs is the absence of Blunt and Gerald McCoy. Obviously the Saints are pass first, but look for Sproles to have a big game as well. The Bucs are also coming out of a thrashing at the hands of San Fran so look for them to lack confidence.
Minny vs Chicago: minny +3***
Minny (22/21) 1-4 SU, 2-2-1 ATS, 2-3 O/U
Bears ( 21/24) 2-3 SU, 1-4 ATS, 2-3 O/U
Minny has led every game by double digits at some point, they are second in the league with 16 sacks, and the bears have allowed the 3rd most sacks at 18, the Bears Defense also owns an NFL worst average allowing 5.7yards per carry. With Peterson on a mission to get his team heading back in the right direction watch out for a big game here. McNabb has been terrible but the Bears D has trouble getting to the QB and Julius Peppers won’t be playing so that should help. Take Minny +3 should win easy. 3 stars.
Miami vs Jets: Miami +7 **
Miami ( 17/26) 0-4 SU 1-3 ATS and 1-3 O/U
NYJ (24/25) 2-3 SU 1-4 ATS and 4-1 O/UMiami is coming off a bye-week, they have won 4 of the last 5 vs. the Jets straight up. The Jets have had a terrible offense so far this year so it’s tough to take the laying 7points to anyone. Matt Moore is taking over for Henne but I don’t see that as a positive or Negative. Meh NYJs are 1-6 ATS when they are home favs of 3.5-7pts. Convincing trend, take Miami and the points. 2 Stars
MY Ticket, 2U on each.
Dallas/NE Ov 55
Bills/Giants OV 50
Colts/Bengals OV 40
Det/SF Ov 46
Green Bay -14
New Orleans -4.5
Baltimore -8
Phil -2.5
Buffalo +3
Carolina +4.5
Minnesota +3
11 plays 2 in one game… boom.
morri1962 gave spladle08 2 SBR Point(s) for this post.
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Originally Posted by whatdafuxup
good luck friend
Spladle is the best
) and as far as me playing a lot. 1.) I'm an action junkie. 2.) I hate having a strong feeling on a game an opting not to play it only to see it hit. I try to stick to 10 plays but sometimes I just cant help myself 
BOL... WIN BIG