Thursday Night Football Trends, Angles and My Play...
Here are the angles and trends (the good and the bad) that I looked at to make my decision:
*Indy has not beat anyone on the road by more than 4 points all season.
*Indy is without Marvin Harrison for the game.
*Until the Green Bay Stinkers came to town Jax had lost by 6 or more points at home in the last three games, clearly indicating that Jax has given up.
*Jax will be without Fred Taylor, Rasheed Mathias, and basically their whole offensive line (as it has been nearly all season).
*Jax beat Indy 23-21 in Indy Week 3.
*Indy will be getting back Addai and Sanders (or so it sounds).
*Indy needs to win this game to stay in the hunt for a playoff spot.
*Jax purposefully overspent on defense last offseason with the focus on beating Peyton Manning and the Colts.
*This might be Jack Del Rio's last game as a Jaguar.
*This is Jax's last home game.
*Indy has won 7 straight games.
*Jax has won 2 games during that same stretch.
*During Indy's 7 game win streak there does not appear to be a consistent trend of Indy being up by a field goal or more or down by a point or more after the first half (meaning it was basically 50/50).
What does all that mean? Not really sure because the trends are not giving a strong indication one way or the other. Therefore, I have to with the angles and my gut. I think that Indy has more to play for and will be by a TD or more. Therefore my play is:
Indy -6
No play on the total but if I did I would tease Indy to a pk and the over 38.