Best Bets (1-2)(-3.60 units)
Strong Plays (0-2)(-4.40 units)
Regular Plays (1-3)(-2.30 units)
Overall (2-7)(-10.30 units)
FOR THE SEASON
Best Bets (11-15)(-16.50 units)
Strong Plays (20-14)(+9.20 units)
Regular Plays (36-25)(+8.50 units)
Overall (67-54)(+1.20 units)
NFL WEEK 15
Another horrible week in week 14 for me. I have pretty much blown my entire season last week dropping 10.30 units. I was horrible. I have been horrible for 3 to 4 weeks now. I guess the only way to look at it is that I am still plus units (barely) and I am due for a good week, although my confidence is destroyed at the moment. Oh well, that is gambling. You might want to start fading me in the NFL the rest of the way.
Thursday, December 11th
Chicago -3 vs Saints (regular play) ..As much as I love the Saints, Brees and their offense, I have to go with the Bears in this one. As much as Brees and his passing game wins games, when he is off, he makes mistakes and costs his team games. I imagine there is a pretty good chance the weather is Chicago tonight will not be ideal and that greatly favors the Bears as it should wreck havoc with the Saints offense. I really feel this line should be more like six, so in my eyes I am getting some value here. If it were not for the weather, I would probably be all over the over as well, but I will have to take a pass on that one tonight. I generally suck at totals anyway. I was going to make this a strong play rather than a regular play, but I have not had much luck when I play any Saints game this year, for or against.
Sunday, December 14th
San Fran +6 ½ vs Miami (best bet) This is the time of year where everybody thinks because you have to or need to win a game, that you do. If that was the case we would have most of the league make the playoffs. 49ers have a ton of confidence after beating the Jets last week. Miami has been winning, but winning ugly. Even though Miami is the better team, I just have the feeling they are way over due for a loss to a team like this. If Miami gets lucky and wins again .it will be ugly and they will not get the cover. I really think the niners have a pretty good shot at coming out on top of this one straight up.
Houston +3 vs Tennessee (best bet) ..Last week was definitely the case where if it looked to good to be true it was. I know I fell for all those sucker bets and I wont do it again this week. Nothing special about Houston at all, while Tennessee has been amazing, yet they are only giving them three points? Not falling for it this week. Take Houston as they win outright.
Arizona -3 vs Minnesota (strong play) ..Arizona continues to be one of the better home teams in football and you just never know what you get with the Vikings. Vikings seems like a team ready to just fall apart and it might easily happen at Arizona. Vikings either shock everybody and win outright or they will get blown out. I dont think this game will be close. Zona by at least 17 points.
Atlanta -3 vs Tampa Bay (strong play) ..Despite the loss last week which was on the road, Atlanta and QB Matt Ryan continue to impress me. Nothing but home teams have covered in this division all season long, so why should it change now. Atlanta has been amazing at home, it is on the road where they have problems. I love getting the Falcons at home and only having to lay three points. They should win by at least seven.
Jets -8 vs Buffalo (regular play) .Buffalo has really fallen apart, especially on the offensive side of the ball. On the other hand, the Jets all of a sudden have something to prove. I look for an extreme effort from the Jets this week and I think they will blowout the Bills. On the other hand, both teams are goofy enough that the bills could win outright. The NFL is a crazy game. Jets should, I said should kill them, but I am only making this a small one unit play because I dont trust either team right now.
Baltimore -2 vs Pittsburgh (regular play) I really like the Ravens in this spot, but I am not crazy enough to go against the Steelers defense for more than a regular one unit play. Pittsburgh was outplayed at home for three quarters last week and should have lost to Dallas. Pittsburgh is almost unbeatable at home, but they are very vulnerable on the road. Baltimore will really be sky high for this one and they will figure out a way to score enough points and beat those hated Steelers. Feels like the over/under for this one should be about twenty.
Dallas -3 vs Giants (regular play) Wow! The Giants are human after all. This is a statement game for the Cowboys. Hopefully the same team that showed up for three quarters at Pittsburgh shows up in Dallas on Sunday night. Giants have shown they are human and are bleeding right now (at least one guys leg anyway) and the Cowboys can smell it and will take advantage and play their best game of the year and get a much needed win and stay alive in the playoff race.
Denver +7 ½ vs Carolina (regular play) ..Only reason I am taking this is because Denver did not look very good last week and Carolina looked great. Usually the following week we see the opposite happen. Denver will find a way and score enough points to get at least a cover.
Monday, December 15th
Cleveland at Philly .You have to be insane to play this game. Never said I was sane, did I? Give me the Browns +14 as a regular one unit play.
Hopefully I am still on the plus side after this week. I miss college football already.
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