Live bet (3Q, 10-7 HOU, PIT ball @ HOU 22yd line)
PIT ML (-130) x2
 SBR Top-Rated Sportsbooks |
Best Sportsbooks List
|
|
| |||||
| #1 FanDuel | SBR rating 4.8/5 | Review | #6 BetRivers | SBR rating 4.1/5 | Review | #2 Caesars | SBR rating 4.7/5 | Review | #7 Fanatics | SBR rating 4.1/5 | Review |
| #3 DraftKings | SBR rating 4.7/5 | Review | #8 Betway | SBR rating 3.8/5 | Review | ||
| #4 BetMGM | SBR rating 4.6/5 | Review | #9 Borgata | SBR rating 3.5/5 | Review | ||
| #5 bet365 | SBR rating 4.6/5 | Review | #10 ClutchBet | SBR rating 2.9/5 | Review | ||
-
10-02-11 02:07 PM #36
Last edited by suicidekings; 10-02-11 at 02:11 PM.
-
10-02-11 02:30 PM #37
LIVE (17-10 HOU, 9:09 4Q, PIT ball at PIT 10yd line):
Originally Posted by suicidekings
PIT ML (+387) x0.5
Composite odds: PIT ML (+127) x2.5Last edited by suicidekings; 10-02-11 at 02:38 PM.
-
10-02-11 03:04 PM #38
Originally Posted by suicidekings
My faith in the Steelers is over. Because of their relatively easy schedule, I suspect they'll be good enough to make the post season, but when it comes down to a big matchup, I think this team is going to get slaughtered 8 out of 10 times. Originally Posted by suicidekings
Their offensive line is no longer providing the support the team needs to operate, making it a lot harder for the running backs to penetrate on the rush, and Ben is getting pressured far too regularly and sacked at a crazy rate. With even a moderately tough schedule, they'd be lucky to be over .500 this season.
10/2: 3-4 (+1.72u) Originally Posted by suicidekings
YTD: 12-19-2 (+3.35u)Last edited by suicidekings; 10-02-11 at 06:33 PM.
-
10-02-11 07:16 PM #39
SNF:
Jets +5.5 (-107) x2
-
10-03-11 07:42 PM #40
MNF
IND/TB Over 40 (-106) x2
Parlay: IND ML / Over 39.5 (+845) x0.2
-
10-04-11 01:38 AM #41
1-2 (-0.34u) Originally Posted by suicidekings
YTD: 13-21-2 (+3.01u)
-
10-05-11 12:47 AM #42
Week 5
Eagles ML (-133) x2
Colts ML (-125) x2
-
10-06-11 02:17 AM #43
Lions -4 (-113) x1 Originally Posted by suicidekings
-
10-07-11 12:24 AM #44
PIT -3 (-120) x1 Originally Posted by suicidekings
-
10-09-11 02:46 AM #45
ARI +3 (-102) x1 Originally Posted by suicidekings
CAR +6.5 (-108) x1
CIN/JAC UNDER 37 (-107) x1
The weather is Jacksonville is going to be awful tomorrow. Rainy and windy, which just adds to the value of the under.Last edited by suicidekings; 10-09-11 at 02:51 AM.
-
10-09-11 02:54 AM #46
big fan of yours...ncaaf and nfl.
respectfully, i got tenn teased to +10 (+9 now). pitt is REALLY beat up. Ben in cast, no harrison, really beat up O - line, mendenhall hurt, and u saw how houston ran on them (foster 155 yards)? CJ will run, balance attack. I know pitt at home and the represent there....just still it will be close.
Carolina, I again have NO (and teased with tenn). The only way i see car covering is bc they will be behind and force Cam to throw. You cover smith tight (yes, that is tough) rush cam, and blitz. Plus, car Rushing TD? NONE (except cam - and he he needs to stay in pocket, not rush)
This is all meant for discussion...not trying to be a troll. I look forward to a discussion
-
10-09-11 11:34 AM #47
I've watched 3 of Pittsburgh's games this season and I don't disagree that injuries are an issue for them, however their biggest problem so far has simply been a failure to execute on bigger plays (both offensively and defensively) and they've been turning the ball over a LOT (-10 TO margin). PIT has been weak on rush defense while strong on pass defense (ranked #1), and that makes Tennessee a good matchup as they don't have much of a ground game (TEN is ranked #32, HOU is ranked #4) and rely heavily on the pass to score (82% of their total yards come from passing vs the league average of 70%). I think Pittsburgh is going to control Tennessee's passing game and the Titans are going to have a hard time getting their offense going today. Originally Posted by shooms79
As for NO/CAR, I'm huge on the Saints this year. I've been paying close attention to them and felt that they were very undervalued from the start this season. That being said, their pass defense is below average at this point and they have a tendency to give up big passing plays while being strong on ground defense. This is not a good tendency vs Carolina because Cam actually can stay in the pocket and spread the field, occasionally taking off to run to keep the NO defense honest. Carolina is #4 in yards per pass attempt and #2 in yards per completion. At the other end, Carolina is actually #1 in the league in passing completions allowed (14.5) and passing 1st downs allowed (7) per game. They have such a bad rap from last season for being a terrible team, but their problems last year were largely on offense while they actually featured a solid defense. They're weaker vs the running game, so Sproles will probably cause problems for them however when playing New Orleans I would much rather have a stronger handle on Brees while forcing them to march down the field than let Brees drop bombs on me.
In general, I've been bad about scaling up my plays on a smaller number of games this season because that's how I bet in other sports, but I don't think that's the optimal strategy for the NFL where the best and worst teams aren't that far apart. So I'm spreading out my action across a broader number of plays this week. One or both of these plays might not have made the top 3 for me this week, but I like them both and feel confident enough to wager a unit on each. If you have both TEN & NO teased, then let's hope for the middle so we both win
-
10-09-11 11:47 AM #48
Jaguars -1 (+134) x1 Originally Posted by suicidekings
TEASER (6tm, 7pt)
Cardinals +10.5
Jaguars +8
Seahawks +17
Bucs +9.5
Jets +14.5
Broncos +10.5
Risking 0.4u to win 2uLast edited by suicidekings; 10-09-11 at 11:51 AM.
-
10-09-11 01:32 PM #49
PIT 2H ML (+120) x0.5
Bengals 2H -1 (-123) x2
NO/CAR 2H O25.5 (-101) x0.5
HOU 2H -2.5 (-108) x0.5
The Jags benefited from an interception and sacked Dalton twice and still have nothing to show for it. The Bengals have been very strong in scoring in the 2H of games, and CIN's defense has already clamped down on the Jags, holding them to only FGs since their TD early in the 1Q. Bengals win this game.Last edited by suicidekings; 10-09-11 at 01:44 PM.
-
10-09-11 02:17 PM #50
Adding live (28-14 BUF, 3Q) Originally Posted by suicidekings
PHI ML (+420) x0.5
Total: 3.16u to win 4.1u
Composite Line: PHI ML (+130) x3.16
-
10-09-11 03:44 PM #51
Early Games: 4-8 (-5.55u) Originally Posted by suicidekings
-
10-09-11 07:15 PM #52
Sunday Night Football
Falcons +6 (+100) x1
Falcons ML (+230) x0.5
-
10-09-11 07:19 PM #53
Week 6
Redskins -1 (+100) x1
Giants -3 (-110) x1
-
10-09-11 07:20 PM #54
GL tonight SK. I'm on the same plays.....just throw in .5x on ML +235
-
10-09-11 07:26 PM #55
Originally Posted by darkenergy
GL tonight SK. I'm on the same plays.....just throw in .5x on ML +235
-
10-09-11 08:37 PM #56
LIVE BET (2Q 14-3 ATL, GB ball) Originally Posted by suicidekings
Falcons TT O24.5 (-115) x1
-
10-09-11 10:45 PM #57
0-3 (-2.65u) Originally Posted by suicidekings
-
10-09-11 10:45 PM #58
Saints -4 (-105) x3 Originally Posted by suicidekings
Panthers +5.5 (-104) x1Last edited by suicidekings; 10-09-11 at 10:55 PM.
-
10-09-11 11:44 PM #59
sorry bout SNF. But good call on pitt. that cost me a little, not as much at nyg. GL next week
-
10-10-11 11:12 PM #60
WEEK 5: 5-11 (-7.2u) Originally Posted by suicidekings
YTD: 17-30-2 (-3.85u)
-
10-10-11 11:57 PM #61
Added 3u to the Saints play for a total of x6 (original -4 (-105) x3; added -4 (-107) x3). Tampa has a lot of fundamental problems right now as demonstrated by their embarrassing loss to SF. I think it's asking way too much for them to reverse their fortune in one week, facing the New Orleans Saints, who could very well be 5-0 right now if they didn't have the misfortune of running into the Packers in Week 1. Originally Posted by suicidekings
Tampa has been letting subpar passing teams put up above average numbers for each of the last 4 weeks. On the surface, their numbers aren't terrible, but when you consider they allow 254 passing yards on only 19 completions per game (A QB putting up 13.4 yards per completion would be ranked fifth in the league), it's clear they've been plagued by big passing plays recently, and Drew Brees is not the QB you want to be facing while trying to correct that issue. Additionally, the Vikings and 49ers absolutely shredded the Bucs run defense, allowing 186 & 213 rushing yards, and the Saints are very capable of running the ball. The Bucs have also failed to perform in the passing department, putting up 4 subpar performances in a row against 4 below average passing defenses.
I think this is a bad matchup for the Bucs in an even worse spot, with their team in disarray beyond what one week of practices can repair. The Saints are playing well right now and I expect them to be way too much for Tampa Bay here.
-
10-16-11 09:12 AM #62
What do u think of no -6, as opposed to -4?
-
10-16-11 09:54 AM #63
I feel like the Saints are going to steamroll the Bucs here, however if I was stuck with -6 I would make it a much smaller play. Originally Posted by DanzeM
-
10-16-11 10:19 AM #64
Week 6 Power Ratings
#1: GB (117.7), SOS RANK: #10 (102.9)
#2: NO (117.4), SOS RANK: #7 (103.9)
#3: NE (115.1), SOS RANK: #4 (104.9)
#4: BAL (113.9), SOS RANK: #21 (99.2)
#5: OAK (113.9), SOS RANK: #1 (108.1)
#6: NYJ (113.7), SOS RANK: #2 (107.8)
#7: SF (111.2), SOS RANK: #25 (98.1)
#8: TEN (110.5), SOS RANK: #16 (100.6)
#9: HOU (109.1), SOS RANK: #17 (99.9)
#10: BUF (108.3), SOS RANK: #22 (99.1)
#11: CIN (107.8), SOS RANK: #20 (99.3)
#12: DET (106.9), SOS RANK: #32 (94.2)
#13: DAL (106), SOS RANK: #9 (103.2)
#14: CHI (105.6), SOS RANK: #5 (104.7)
#15: WAS (105.4), SOS RANK: #31 (94.3)
#16: PHI (103.9), SOS RANK: #23 (98.8)
#17: PIT (103.6), SOS RANK: #13 (102)
#18: SD (103.3), SOS RANK: #26 (97.6)
#19: DEN (99.9), SOS RANK: #3 (105.8)
#20: SEA (99.3), SOS RANK: #18 (99.8)
#21: MIA (99.1), SOS RANK: #15 (101.4)
#22: CAR (99), SOS RANK: #12 (102.6)
#23: MIN (98.7), SOS RANK: #29 (95.2)
#24: ATL (98.3), SOS RANK: #11 (102.7)
#25: NYG (97.5), SOS RANK: #28 (95.8)
#26: TB (96), SOS RANK: #19 (99.6)
#27: JAC (95.6), SOS RANK: #6 (104.4)
#28: ARI (94.5), SOS RANK: #27 (96.2)
#29: CLE (94.4), SOS RANK: #24 (98.8)
#30: STL (87.4), SOS RANK: #8 (103.4)
#31: KC (86.3), SOS RANK: #14 (102)
#32: IND (86.1), SOS RANK: #30 (94.5)
To calculate the power ratings I grade each game played, factoring in the outcome of the game, the relative strength of the team they played in the week they played them, and home/away. Winning percentage is not a factor at all. There are a couple of numbers that I'm not 100% sure I agree with, but in general I'm happy with how the teams are ranked. I'm still refining them from week to week but I thought I'd post them before the games today.
In particular, I'm pretty sure Oakland and the Jets should be a bit lower but have been elevated a bit because of their tough schedules so far. Detroit is all the way down in #12 because their schedule has been cake so far. San Francisco is undoubtedly a bit higher than they should be as well, due to the blowout last week, however all of these nuances will even out every week as more data is available.Last edited by suicidekings; 10-16-11 at 10:23 AM.
-
10-16-11 11:43 AM #65
SF +6 (-110) x1
-
10-16-11 01:28 PM #66
Bengals 2H -1.5 (-110) x1
Steelers 2H -4.5 (-115) x0.5
Last edited by suicidekings; 10-16-11 at 01:33 PM.
-
10-16-11 01:44 PM #67
Niners 2H ML (+181) x0.5
-
10-16-11 03:04 PM #68
Raiders -6.5 (-110) x1
-
10-16-11 03:49 PM #69
Patriots -6.5 (+105) x1
-
10-16-11 04:09 PM #70
Live (7-7, 4:38 2Q): Ravens -4.5 (-115) x1
Reply With Quote
