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My NFL 2011 money line plays.
This is my 3rd season capping. Since I'm average at ATS, I'll make SU plays.
My own important rules for gambling:
#1. Money management / Bankroll management is extremely important. Use a money management system and stick with it religiously. Give yourself a limit per week and know when to quit. You should be using 1% to 10% of your bankroll for each bet.
#2 Bet because you can win. Never bet for the action or just because it's your favorite team. Be selective. Pick your spots and wait for the right opportunity.
#3. Pay attention to the lines all the way to the end of the week, try to make profit off the line. Always shop for the best line, Always! You should have an account in multiple books.
#4. Know that you are making profits off of other gamblers, you are not making profit off of the casinos and line makers. That's why they adjust the lines and value accordingly.
#5. Stay emotionless all the time. Bet like a robot. There's no place for emotions in this profession.
#6. Patience & Discipline is the key. Develop these skills.
#7. Pay attention to injuries to important players, it can effect the outcome of a game.
Here are betting styles I took from someone on the internet:
1. Establish a base line for the game to determine value when a line is more or less than your number. You can do this by using power ratings and weekly adjustment charts to update each team's power rating weekly.
2. Situational handicapping- look for things like revenge, maybe a player is shooting his mouth off, key injuries. Note; linemakers are sharp and generally build the line to compensate for the injury, it's when the public overbets the injury to look at playing the otherside.
3.Statistical handicapping- does a team have a top ranked rushing or passing game going against a low ranked defense. Turnovers?
4. Fundemental handicapping- are their any strong trends or coaching advantages. How well do they play on the road? What is their red zone %, are they able to run the clock out with a lead, etc...
I am sure the Steelers will defeat the Ravens. Joe Flacco has not defeated Big Ben at center for the Steelers in the past 3 seasons. Not only that, the Ravens traded Todd Heap TE and Derrick Mason WR, the Steelers have more weapons than the Ravens.
The Cardinals defense is very strong, the defense stopped and defeated the Saints and Broncos last season. With Cam Newton at center for the Panthers with no OTAs because of the lock out. The Panthers offense will stuggle.
The divisional Rivalry between the Patriots and Dolphins, the away team wins most of the time. The Patriots dominated the Dolphins with Chad Henne at center for the Dolphins last season. The Patriots will defeat the Dolphins.
The Broncos have not lost an opening game for 14 seasons. I am not sure if I should play this or not. The Broncos needs a solid run defense against Raider's Darren McFadden or the Raiders will dominate them again.
Week 1 plays:
Pittsburgh ML (1 unit to win 2.1 unit) +110
Arizona ML (1 unit to win 1.3 unit) -330
New England ML (1 unit)
Denver ML (1 unit)
2011 YTD record: 0-0 (0 units)
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Originally Posted by GunShard
1.25 is not a unit. It is a "factor". You are confusing people when you say 1 unit to win 1.25.
