[cocknocker]

I like the Chargers to blow off the Cheifs in an ugly affair that will have the locals yelling at their players. Of all the games on the board, I think this one is the biggest mismatch. The Chargers score, but they have been having hard luck in their losses. The Cheifs have only had one home loss of less than a touchdown. Clearly a sign of a team that is in trouble, playing against a perennial playoff team with a bad record.

Chargers-5 whatever it ends up being. but i will stp it at 6.5


I love the way that the Niners are playing right now and you just can't give them a touchdown when guys are flying around the field the way that they are for Coach Singletary. he's really got it working out there, and it shows in their play. They are one upgrade in quarterback away from doing it for real. Miami is a good team, but they have a way of making things closer than it should be, allowing for close games. i say the Niners keep it close.

Niners+6.5

Titans/Texans over 45. This is a play based purely upon the trends for the games in Houston between these two teams. The Titans have been going berzerk scoring. That won't change. But Houston is scoring too. So we'll see how it goes. i give the slight nod to Houston to get the cover as the Titans have some players that will take more plays off than ususal, and so on. Teams always let up off the gas somewhat when they clinch early. Texans haven't been a home dog to the Titans since 2003.

Texans/Titans over 45
Texans+3.5


Dallas Cowboys-3 (PC Play)

All that I can say is that I won't go too crazy over the early games in preparation for this one. The Giants got exposed by Philly, and now that the film is hot, everyone knows the secret. Dallas played tough with Pittsburgh and didn't back down one iota, losing on costly turnovers. Tashard Choice has a big play every game that he is in there and rookies always play well at home. I have to go with the homies on this one and take the Cowboys to end the Giant's hex!


Monday Night,

Cleveland Browns in this one. Every time that the Browns have been under the lights they have covered. Which means that they play well in big games. Even against Tennessee last weekend, they played tough enough for me to be sweating for three quarters and some change before giving in to the demands of the Titans late. All of the money in the entire free world will be on Philly, but the Browns find a way to cover this one. Teams that beat the champions from the previous year are just 43% a good point spread play in the following game since 1980. that's al the wiggle room I need.

Browns+14.5 (buying the hook)

[nick2060]

like the chargers, their playing good right now, kind of too late but oh well.
Liking san fran too, i got a question for you though ck, what secret are you referring to about the giants? Personally i think philly is peaking and the giants bus pulled an indianapolis by peaking way too early.

[cocknocker]

nick2060

Philly is peaking but they aren't 14 points better than any team spread-wise. It's not a gimmie for Philly in that game. And I know that without even looking at the consensus numbers, especially after beating the Giants. I'll take my chances with the 14.5.

[cocknocker]

nick2060,

The secret has to do with film study. The Eagles attacked the Giants offense with multiple blitz packages that upset the timing between Eli and his receivers. The Cowboys are number 2 in the league in 3rd down sacks. I look for that tend to continue in this game. The Cowboys are fresh with no injuries to report, so the G-Men will get the full arsenal, including Marion Barber, who was issued a challenge by owner Jerry Jones publicly to get his act together and run hard. I see this as a hotly contested game with the Cowboys winning in the end by 4 points 27-23. Which of course means that i also llike the over 44 too but i am not playing it other than on parlay material.

Back to the point. Teams study film to gain knowledge of their upcoming opponent and use the same schemes and so on to acheive a similar result. All things being equal, the Cowboys defnsive line ramks up there with the best of them. Obviously they can move the ball against the Steelers, then they can move the ball against any team. So I give the nod to their offense against the Giants defense. T.O. scores twice in this game and barber once coupled with a few field goals.

[cocknocker]

Consensus time:

The Texans despit only having 22% of bettors on their side had the line drop from Tennessee-3.5 to Tennessee-3, which makes this a great play already.

The over/under for that game dipped slightly to 44.

The 49ers have 45% of bettors on their side, and the line has stayed stiff as a rock. I like my chances in that one. Miami is due for a straight up loss. Who better than the Niners? They are 4-1 ats in recent form, and Miami is 1-4 ats in recent form. Plus the Dolphins are 1-5 ats when playing against the Niners!

The Chargers are 82% with bettors versus Kansas City, and i think that the line will rise with numbers like that. But i feel that the spread was made t 4 to have wiggle room all the way up to 6.5 anyway.

The Cowboys are 45% with bettors and the line of course is stiff, as the linemaker is getting exactly what he wants...money on both sides of the fence.

So I like all of my plays so far. I will check the lines again on Thursday to see what they are doing then.

[Rio DiNero]

Chargers look good, but I think the safer play in that game is OVER. I watched the last game between these two a couple weeks ago,and although the final was 20-19, there was over 750 yards of total offense as both teams moved up and down the feild on each other. This game should go OVER easily!

[tee401]

CK , First of all i would like to say thank you, i have learn alot from you! about the idea and all stuffs. (^.^) Keep write up!! Thank agian!!!

What do you think about N.E - 7 , Jets -7 and Baltimore -2? Jets has lost 2 games in the row and they play at home againt Bill, which is bad offense, and i also like Baltimore Coz i believe Defence always win the game and they play at home againt Pit. which is big win againt Dallas last week.. 2 teams have a good D! but i have to take Home team advantage!! any thought from you?

[cocknocker]

tee401

I don't like new England laying those kinds of points, and the Jets defense may inhibit them from getting the cover aginst the Bills. The Bills have lost too many games in a row to go against them if that sounds right. Baltimore is playing in a big game against the Steelers. the teelers are more used to paying in big games and should get the cover in that one.

[cocknocker]

A game of significance that is starting to make sense to me is the Broncos getting a scrub spread against the Panthers. No way should the Panthers be this big of a favorite over the Broncos in this game, especially when a Denver win would clinch the AFC west crown. They have all of the momentum going into this game, and they should never be given that kind of points. Shanahan is a Super Bowl quality coach.

[IrwinFletcher]

Damn dude.. What's the saying.. Great minds...

Anyway, SF.. my pick of the week.. Also love the under 41.5. Singletary has instilled his tough, defensive intensity into this team. They will be well prepared for the Wildcat and force Chad and the Phins into a one dimensional offense.. 6.5 pts is just too much.. Niner's proved in Buffalo that they can travel east and get it done.

You know what happens with the NFC East.. WLWLWLWL Home/Away.. It happens year after year. Whoever and where ever the first team wins.. you often see the opposite in the second matchup and this being a must win for the Cowboys, you better believe they will be prepared. Whitten and Romo will both learn and bounce back from the costly mistakes in Pitt. Giants will rest Jacobs and without Plax, Dallas' DB's matchup much better. I really love the new blitz packages that Bum Jr. has put into the D scheme and D Ware and J Ratliff are playing out of their heads.

I agree that the Iggles should not be laying 14+ to anyone, especially on the MNF stage with the Redskins up next. Also like the Broncos layin' 7 to CAR after a huge MNF win on a short week. Look for Cutler to have a big day but the Panthers' two headed monster of a running attack is rollin'..

As far as SD goes. I just can't play on Norv Turner. His clock management and staff's play calling are some of the worst in the league when the game is on the line in crunch time. Time and time again he finds a way to **** things up calling time outs, not calling time outs.. just stupid shit that has cost them at least 2 ball games that I have seen.

Other leans....

IND first half..
ATL -3 I look for the NFC south home trend to continue and CAR was able to expose the left side of that D-line that the Falcons with Turner will capitalize on. Also a big revenge game here and a must win if they want to contend for the wild card. Tampa hasn't impressed me at all this year. They don't stretch the field early enough in ball games to be able to take advantage of it.

BAL -1 weather pending

More later

[wangichu]

tee401
Baltimore is playing in a big game against the Steelers. the steelers are more used to paying in big games and should get the cover in that one.

I don't know if i would agree with that statement. The core of Baltimore's defense is pretty much the same as it has been for the last half decade, some of which date back to that super bowl win (esp ray lewis). They were in the playoffs a few years ago and even this year, they covered in pitt losing by only 3 points. Imho, they are on fire right now and this being a divisional game, will be ready for the steelers. The biggest thing that I've noticed is that teams that either blitz the quarterback a lot or have quality d-linemen and keep pressure on him have given the steelers problems this year, as their O-line has struggled (they really miss pro-bowl guard alan faneca). For example, Philly and the giants are (next to the ravens and steelers of course) the best two (if not two of the best) squads at blitzing/pressuring the quarterback. The steelers have really been terrible at pass blocking, and the ravens defense is great at stopping the run. I will try to look up the numbers and rankings, but i know that philly (outside of some terrible games) and new york also are great at stopping the run, just like the ravens. Again off the top of my head, if i'm not mistaken, baltimore is also in the top 5 (or 3) at run defense. Add to this that big ben has thrown more picks this year than flacco (meaning the turnover battle favors baltimore) and really, the game looks like baltimore may have the edge. And if you don't believe me, despite almost perfectly even money (i'm showing 53% on pitt), the spread moved from BAL -1 to BAL -2

Again back to the eagles, I really think their defense is almost the same as the ravens, except the ravens have a big edge with ray lewis in the middle (who keeps them from having off nights in the run defense like the eagles are prone to) and a slight edge at safety with ed reed (reed IS the best in the game imho, but brian dawkins can hardly be described as worse than any other safety).

this is easily one of my favorite picks as i have been waiting for this game since pittsburgh squeaked one out at home. I had a long discussion with my steeler fan friend (a non-capper, but very knowledgeable for what it's worth) back in week 4, and he speculated (without my commenting) that the game in baltimore would be the one in division game the steelers would lose.

That being said, i'm liking the texans, broncos, and 49ers as well so my early play card looks like ...

HOU +3.5
DEN +7.5
SF +7
BAL -2

also, the way the public is pounding the falcons to no line movement, i have to think there's a chance the bucs bounce back. I know they had homecourt advantage earlier in the year, but their run D was almost impenetrable until the panthers made a mockery of them. i can't see that happening again. Also, ronde barber has a way of getting to QBs that usually don't throw picks. still holding on this one, but early lean is TB +3

[cocknocker]

You know what Wang, it's funny but i was coming over ere to say that i like the Ravens in that game too. No need in me expanding upon it. the line movement is correct. They are playing some of the best football in the NFL right now. The Steelers offense is struggling behind their less than stellar offensive line. Anytime the Steelers have numbers like they do this year running the ball, you know that their line is not good. that's their identity. Pound the rock!


Updated card for Sunday

49ers+7.5 (buying a point)
Bucs+3.5 (They win and they're in)
Baltimore-2.5
Cowboys-2.5 (buying a hook off of it) PC Play



I have converted the Texans, and Texans, over into parlay material that i will combine with the plays above. A nice 7-way risking $25.00 (a fun bet) I am dropping the Chargers as the line is not doing what it should do.

[LUNT101]

The Cowboys offense couldn't move the ball against Pittsburgh, despite a good game from Choice. Word on the street is that Barber can run forward but can't cut. He will 'try and give it a go' this week but even if he does get the start I can't see him having any impact whatsoever. The Giants D is going to be amped up after getting embarrassed against Philadelphia. Cowboys defense is not as good as they played last week...the Steelers offense has been inconsistent all season. The Giants offense, even without Jacobs, will be back with a vengeance this week. A few dropped passes away from turning that whole Philly game around. Don't forget, these are the SAME GIANTS that have been dominating this whole season. I don't care what you say about the Plaxico Burress situation, they have been winning without him all season and that was not the reason the G-men lost on Sunday. This is the ultimate statement game for the Giants. Look for more of the balanced attack we have become accustomed to seeing from NY this season. Derrick Ward 105 yds, 1TD; Eli Manning 15-25 220 yds 2 TD. Giants D will stop the run and force Romo to make the plays. For Romo, instead of going out and trying to find the open man, he's got the T.O. situation hovering over his head every time he drops back. Romo is 1-9 ATS as a starter after November and his Sept-Nov numbers compared to his Dec-Jan numbers are remarkable. Giants win this game.

[wangichu]

yeah, as far as the cowboys game... PC or no, I can't touch that game. I am a die hard eagles fan and just can't bet against something that I desparately want to happen. I have been laughing and loving all the TO drama these last few days, hearing him moan and whine about romo and witten's secret play club that doesn't include TO. I've heard a lot of comments from the team about how annoying or selfish TO is, and i know some people know he just thinks he can help the team win, but he's a straight nut job who can't keep his psycho insecurities to himself. Believe me, I know, and it is soooo gratifying to see him tear that team's chemistry apart just like he tried to do in philly. I just can't help but think that they are just having too many issues to play at the top of their game, and with the giants really wanting to bounce back after being subdued by the eagles, i'm almost tempted to take them just as much as i would to take the boys. All in all, i'd rather not risk money on this game so i can just watch and pull for the giants to give us the leg up on the boys and hope that dallas just fades into the distance.

[Mr Handicapable]

Arizona -3/Minnesota 3 stars
Jets -8/Buffalo 3 stars
49ers +7/Miami 2 stars

Arizona is 5-1 SU at home! Tav Jackson is Tav Jackson, Jared Allen took a cheap shot (well deserved) last week and hasn't practiced & won't be 100% either...he's pretty much their entire pass rush!

The Jets line dropped to 8 and I can't understand why?? Buffalo has scored 3 points in each of their last 2 games at home!! The Jets smashed the Titans on the road and probably thought that they were better than they are and they were punished for it! Here comes a Buffalo team with NO offense whatsoever to help them back on track. The Jets D is a little soft but a 2 game losing streak will have them ready and their offense has all the pieces! I can't see this being less than a 2 TD game??

Singletary has the 49ers playing hard and Shaun Hill gives them a future...a TD is too much although the 49ers still need alot of work!

GL

[LUNT101]

wang,

Don't worry, Cowboys will lose...But I still think the Eagles are gonna have a hard time making the playoffs. They are good, but is it too little too late? You guys started off the season nicely but then disappeared while Westbrook couldn't stay on the field...You're gonna need alot of things to go your way.

Take the Gmen.

[cocknocker]

The Cowboys have gotten too much bad press for me to lay off of them. The media would have you to believe that they are team turmoil right now, but I beg to differ. I think that they get the job done. i am buying a hook, because I think that this game will be decided by a field goal. 61% of bettors are on the G-Men, yet the line has not shifted whatsoever. I have to take my chances with a line like that.

I also like the Vikes+3.5 against the Cards. With only a meager 18% of bettors on their side, the line has not budged, and we are at Saturday. That would give me an odd amount of games, which is always good considering the fact. All of the picks I have made hve the kind of movement that I like. I am still waiting to hear abut the Garcia injury though. The Bucs are deep at quarterback, so they should be alright. but I would like to have a full compliment of players to make my wager with though.

[wangichu]

wang,

Don't worry, Cowboys will lose...But I still think the Eagles are gonna have a hard time making the playoffs. They are good, but is it too little too late? You guys started off the season nicely but then disappeared while Westbrook couldn't stay on the field...You're gonna need alot of things to go your way.

Take the Gmen.

honestly, all we need is a falcons loss and to win out, something surprising feasible at this point. Last week is what put us in this position, and honestly, for whatever reason, the eagles play their best ball with their backs against the wall. We will beat the skins because they are fading away. Their early season success was predicated on total domination of turnover battles and as the season has gone on, other teams have figured out zorn's playbook and have done a better job at making it harder for them to do their thing. I really think they lack the kind of team to impose their will on other teams, and that their success requires perfection. Obviously, we will then have to handle our business against the cowboys in the season finale, but we control our own destiny so long as we can catch one loss from the falcons, a realistic possibility with the bucs and vikes, but if it doesn't happen in the next two weeks i cannot imagine them losing to the rams. I believe, I just really need the bucs and or vikes to come through for me.... all i can do is sit back and cross my fingers... i generally don't bet on the boys though, i just hate winning money on a team i hate so much.

[Robust]

I am with you on all your plays except Ten/Hou over.. not saying it will not go over, just that I have not done the math... Good luck to you!!!

Robust

[mmaddness08]

Hey CK and the mafia, thanks for the great write ups once again. Love the PC play and I'm with you on the Cowboys. Romo will bounce back in a big way here, although TO is brewing controversy, Romo is a different character then Garcia and McNabb and is the kind of leader that this won't effect personally. I see him making an effort to get TO going today, and all will be happy in Big D. The media is only making a big deal out of Dallas drama, but the Giants have their own problems. Dallas in a must win at home and very much like them. Todays card lots of leans, but 3 games I really like, with one being upset of the day.

I'm telling you take Houston today to win outright over Tennessee. One thing you can give Houston credit for is, even when they are bad, they have character and always play hard. Many factors here on Houston as my play of the day. First 4 out 5 bets are going on Tennessee, but the sharp money is on Houston, hence you see the line dropped to Tennessee -3. Also Houston is a very good Home Team and gotta like them getting a Field goal. They went 6-2 at home last year and they always play well. Matt Schaub is also back and this is a big game for him as Titans have been his Kryptonite. Schaub has a great QB rating, his problem has been injuries. Van Den Bosch is out today, which will give him a break today. Texans have momentum with a 3 game winning streak and have never won 4 in a row. Titans, and especially Albert Haynesworth have bullied Texans in past, but since D. Robinson has been put back into the starting lineup, Houston Defense has stepped up and Def Coord. R. Smith has starting taking more risk with blitz packages where he was not with best corner out earlier in season. Houston is coming together, and this is a team on rise to lookout to finally make the playoffs next season. Teams usually with a 2 game or better lead in their division win games, but don't cover as often, Vegas has not judged Tenn well this season, and they have won lots of money for many that have played them. But I think the Book is catching up with them, and this is Texans playoff game today for them. They also are carrying the Big Mo after a big road game at the Frozen Tundra last week. Houston has shown to be a prolific offense ranking 3rd in AFC. Although record is only 6-7, this is not a bad team. Look for Houston to make there statement today.

Houston +3.5
Baltimore ML
Dallas -3

Good Luck to all

[irishdude]

jets play of the day buffalo banged up all over jets need this win

[innovator]

i seriously wouldn't bet against the giants this year..i think philly caught em off gaurd.