[cocknocker]

So far I really like the

Buffalo Bills-1.

They look vulnerable right now, and Miami looks strong. Bettors have taken that stance and are pounding the Dolphins 72% to only 28% for the Bills. However, the line is going up on some books to the Bills-1.5, which is reverse movement. The Dophins have always had problems playing in cold weather, so hopefully there will be some snow out there in western New York.

Rams/Cardinals over 48.5

The Cardinals after two straight up losses are poised fr a big scoring day against the Rams, one of the NFL. The Rams give up 30 points on average and the Cardinals give up 26.2 points on average. That's 56.2 points added up altogether. The Rams will get their 2 touchdowns and a field goal, and the Cardinals will get 38 points with ease, as they need to start playing with a sense of urgency after the losses. The Rams give up 12.4 yards per pass play. Not good when facing the Cardinals who average 303 passing yards a game and 11.1 yards per pass play. The over is 4-2 in the last 6 games between these two teams.

[jerseydave77]

The bills game is not in new york. It is being played in the dome in toronto. I have miami +1 in consideration of this as my #3 play this week.

Bills look like they've quit.

[cocknocker]

Oh yeah, that's right! Good information, jerseydave77. So Miami has even further to fly. I like the Bills even better now, as the Toronto crowd will be more for the Bills than the Dolphins by far. And it is already cold in Toronto.

[jerseydave77]

The Flight doesn't bug me - the distance between Toronto and Buffalo is minimal by plane - it is definitely a home game for the Bills though (approx 2.5 hours by car). I imagine a lot of folks will be more than happy to get out of the cold and in to that dome to cheer on the Bills.

What this does mean is that the cold is not a huge factor.

It is hard for me to get behind the Bills after losing to a west coast team at home in the cold. And especially a west coast team like the 49ers that they should rip. It feels like they've given in to a disappointing season.

Miami is on the cusp of a playoff slot - they too are coming off a crummy game even if they did win it.

The more I look at this the more I think it is a no-play on my end.

I wish you the best of luck this week.

[cocknocker]

jerseydave77, it's always best to play a team when their stock is low. And the stock is low for the Bills at this point, and the consensus of this wager doesn't lie. 62% of bettors are on Miami

[bigp69]

I'm from Toronto and the fans will be 90 percent bills fans so yes it is a home game. It is a sold out game and the crow is going to be wild.

I like the Bills here for sure

[cweh]

for some odd reason, I feel like outside of Seattle +4.5 all the Favs are going to cover this week... am I hellucinating???

Maybe Atlanta too +3.5

[wangichu]

i'll probably be refining my play card, but on my initial look, i like

CHI -6.5

Jags have mailed it in and could care less, while the bears still have playoff hopes on the line

GB - 6

technically, green bay is still alive, and with the texans coming off an emotional win at home, where they play much better, and the pack coming off a crushing loss at home, the packers are in a good position to handle their business

NO -3

New Orleans at home is a way different beast than they are on the road... at home, interdivisional revenge game, atlanta has won a few on the road lately and are due to get back to sub .500 road play... breesy won't be takin' it easy after that tough road loss to the "can't kick the extra field goal" bucs.

PHI +7

philly seems to love waiting until the end of the season to turn it on and after seeing vintage mcnabb last week, i have to think that was really the only thing missing from some of their tight losses this year. Outside of the baltimore meltdown, philly has not lost a game by more than a touchdown. Philly's slim playoff hopes would require them to win out AND get some help, so they know that this is it, and that's usually where they are at there best. Add to that the fact that philly has dropped 4 straight to the g-men and you have more motivation to go with the fact that the g-men are normally better on the road too.

also on the bills -1... fade them when they lay more than an FG, play them with less. plus divisional vengence and come on... dolphins on the road against a team looking to turn things back around and get vengence.

[wangichu]

for some odd reason, I feel like outside of Seattle +4.5 all the Favs are going to cover this week... am I hellucinating???

Maybe Atlanta too +3.5

i think that after the majority of the roadies won last week (including a LOT of dogs) the way football always goes, their should be a lot of home covers. I like philly more than atlanta to cover though... guess we'll see

[cocknocker]

wang, now that you have mentioned valid points I like the Eagles too. As far as Green Bay, I like the over in that game, as both teams average giving up around 25 points or so. I may leave that one alone altogether, as the Texans have only 21% of bettors on their side, yet the line went down from 6.5 to 6. It should be a solid 7 by Sunday. If so then i will play it at -6 with a point buy, But I must see the line get to 7 with all of that money on the Packers.

[Bills365]

Well being a huge bills fan this game is scary. Trent Edwards is a game time decision so we might be seeing J.P. Losman who will be sacked atleast three times and good for atleast a pick or two. you seen what porter did to Edwards in the first matchup it will be twice as worse if losman plays. On another note as far as ive heard schoebel will be out again for this one which equals no pass rush whats so ever. i would stay away from this one as badly as i would love for the bills to win.

[cocknocker]

The Titans can clinch their division with a win against the lowly Browns, who are down to their 3rd string quarterback. They were forced to sign Bruce Gradkowski this week just to have a back up. Wow! I don't see how they can hang in there against the Titans with that kind of motivation. I think that they win this game by 47 points and start to rest some players at key positions. The Browns were already having problems moving the ball to begin with. the Browns have scored no touchdowns n their last two games. The Titans give up just 15 points per game and less than 300 yards of total offense. they will want to seal the deal in front of their home fans this weekend. They show no mercy on their opponents (see Thanksgiving Day Massacre)

I am also liking the Ravens in the late game to do a number on the Redskins, as the Skins are doing their usual slide, and the Ravens appear to be headed toward the top of their division. The Skins are averaging under 18 points per contest,and Baltimore is up to their usual shut down defense giving up just under 17 points per game and only 262 yads per game. They are hot going 5-1 in their last 6 games.

Play card update homes

Tennessee-14
Buffalo-1
Eagles+7.5
Rams/Cardinals over
Cardinals 1st half

[wangichu]

definitely feeling you on the ravens... i think i'm dropping the packers and likely the bears if for no other reason, that's such a weak division and i don't like them going against teams that may suck but are used to tougher opponents...

as far as the ravens go, i've always felt like the skins were the softest, most finess team in the NFC east and that's just not going to do it against a hard hitting D like baltimore's. Furthermore, as you said with the late season collapse that the skins do, they were playing virtually mistake free football early in the year, and still just getting the job done... now that campbell and co. are no longer perfect, wins haven't been falling into their lap... i will fade them here and against the eagles for sure, those two teams just have too much defensive strength (and eagles are going to blaze a revenge trail imho). anyways... still loving the saints... ppl just keep jocking the falcons and really they are too susceptible outside of their house, just as the saints are really only formidible at home.... so far i'm on...

PHI +7.5
BAL -5
BUF -1
NO -3

just can't pull the trigger on the titans though, as right as you look, teams just don't cover ATS in their next game following a lions beatdown, partly because of line inflation and partly post-blowout syndrom

[NYCKEV]

CK fall back from any action against my Gmen baby! They are a scoring and cover machine. If I'm not mistaken they are 10-2 this season.

[NYCKEV]

Jets -3.5, Giants -6.5 and Atl +3.5 for me. Gl all

[walbjj]

ck, do u mean take the -7.5 cardinals 1st half play?

[showtime2000]

Here's some info,

Chicago at home over the last 3 years their games have gone over 18-5. They are averaging 27 points per game at home and giving up 26. In all games they score 23 and give up 22 on average. JAcksonville has been averaging 20 and giving up 22 in all games this season. On the road, they score on average 21 and give up 20. With the O/U set at 40 this makes strong consideration for an over play. Not sure what weathers like tomorrow, can someone confirm?

Just to add, Bears averaged 27 in their first 8 games but managed only 14 or less average in their last 4. Jack have allowed 84 points in last 3 games. I can see Chicago's offense getting back on track.

[cocknocker]

Update of my plays homies:

Titans-14
Broncos-9.5 (PC Play)
Bills-1
Cardinals 1st half -8.5
Ravens-5.5


Anyway the PC's and I did a Party Call and we have decided upon Denver-9.5 against the Cheifs tomorrow. The Chefs pulled off the outright upset in one of the first games i gave the thread as a pick.This time they won't be so lucky. This is the time of year that the dominant teams establish themselves to their home crowds. Denver is the class of the AFC West handsdown, and will look to take one step closer to capturing the division crown on Sunday. the Chefs are in the way.Just as the Cheifs have the raiders number, the Broncos have the Cheifs number at home, going 5-0 straight up and 4-1 ats. The Chefis come in high off the win against the hapless Raiders. The Broncos just beat the Jets. So what do we have now? The Broncos are not the Raiders. And the Cheifs are just as bad as the Raiders. It's time to wrap things up.

[peterpan19]

ck why did you drop the eagles ?

[johnny baseballs]

My Best Bet

Panthers Ml (-170)
Panthers Are Home Gonna Look To Get Revenge After Tampa Beat Them In There Last Meeting...tampa Might Have Only 1 Starter Going On The D-line To A Solid Run Game Of D.williams And J.stewart Who Been Very Solid...key Thing Panthers Are Home Bucs Not A Great Road Team...warrick Dunn Yea Hes Been Good But Come On You Think Him And Cadiliac Are Gonna Do Anything There Fore Garica Playing Behind Against A Solid Secondary Dont Think So...

Panthers Win This One 27-10 (50 Units)

Jets Ml (-200)

Im A 49ers Fan Its Been A Terrible Year Again Jets Are Really Solid They Will Bounce Back After There Bad Home Defeat Favre Will Look His Old Self When He Use To Own The 49ers When He Was A Packer Key Injury Nate Clements Will Miss His 1st Game To Snap His Injury Streak Jets Will Throw And Thow
On A Very Weak Secondary

Jets Win This One 31-17 (25 Units)

Ne & Sea Over 43 (-115)

Matt Cassell And Senaca Wallace Will Both Have Big Days I See This Game Being A 35-28 Type Game Cassell Will Have A Huge Day And Senaca Wallace Will Have A Big Day Against A Weak Secondary Bobby Engram Should Find His 1st Touchdown Of The Year And Big Games For Carlson And Branch Should Be A Fun Game To Watch High Scoring Shootout

New England Wins This Probally 31-28

So I Like The Over @ (25 Units)

[zackattack]

Oh yeah, that's right! Good information, jerseydave77. So Miami has even further to fly. I like the Bills even better now, as the Toronto crowd will be more for the Bills than the Dolphins by far. And it is already cold in Toronto.

i plan on winning big with these picks boys
arizona -14
denver -8.5
jaguars + 6
vikes -10
pats -7
ravens -5
at least 4-2 here!

[Cougar Bait]

What's with all these people posting their plays in your thread?

[fatman81]

Hey for you folks with SportsInsights accounts, can you give a noob a piece of advice? Do you usually look at the recommended sports book play on Smart $, or do you typically look at the percentages on the Live Odds page that the public is going with? The two are very often inverses of each other. Makes it difficult for a noob like me to make a decision.