[Sports Cruncher]

Hey SBR, I posted some here in year's past, but have been out of public forums the last two years. I have a proven track record in the regular season with my stats based capping, but have not tried capping the preseason much, so keep that in mind if you want to throw a grain of salt on this analysis, lol. Feel free to jump in with any comments or differing analysis.

Pats @ Bucs: The Bucs' starting cornerbacks are injured and didn't practice Monday. The Bucs signed CB Ashton Youboty off the street. “Hey Youboty, wanna' suit up and play versus Tom Brady this week? Come on down!” That's all bad news facing a Pats team with the best offensive output in NFLx week #1 without even putting Tom Brady and almost all of their biggest stars on the field. Looking at the Pat's secondary, there is serious competition for a starting safety position between 2 time Pro-Bowler B. Merriweather and S. Brown, prompting Belichick to leave the first teamers (Merriweather & Chung) in the entire 1st half versus Jax to work on their communication. Expect the Pat's secondary to once again be tougher than usual for a preseason game.


The Pat's RB Ridley left practice Monday with a muscle pull in his, leaving them a little thin at the position. The Pats had a near even split in pass and run plays in week #1, in spite of a 19-9 halftime lead that ballooned to a blowout in the second half, so expect coach Belichick to continue running a normal offense regardless of the score, adding value to both the Over and the Pats side.


Belichick wanted to see how well his 2nd-stringers would perform by allowing them to get into the flow of an entire game, claiming fear of injuries had nothing to do with his decision. The 2nd preseason game traditionally sees field time split between the starters in the first half and the backups in the second. His starters will have to see SOME action in the preseason, so I'd expect them to go an entire half for this game, perhaps a little more in the 3rd game, while reverting to backups only for the 4th game, which is traditional for most teams anyway. You can't expect the starters to be as fired up for a preseason game as the subs, but I'm not sure any player would feel comfortable not playing hard with coach Belichick watching on the sidelines.


The Bucs' 25-0 drubbing of the Chiefs in the first preseason game is a bit misleading, as the Chiefs have taken things incredibly slow since the lockout ended, treating the opener versus the Bucs as just another part of training camp. The key offensive players for the Chiefs didn't play at all, so the Bucs' banged-up secondary wasn't tested nearly as much as it will be versus the Pats.


The Bucs will have the motivational edge in this game facing a Pats team that always has a target on their back, while also playing their first home game of the preseason. If you look at last season, the Pats won their home opener in week #1 then played at Atlanta in week #2. The result? A 28-10 win versus a good Falcons team who'd also won in week #1, and who didn't make the playoffs in the prior season.


The Patriots could easily get out to a fast start this game while also contributing points in the 2nd half, just like last week. The Bucs have two big-play Qbs getting the majority of the snaps in this game. While the Bucs may keep it close at times during this game, it's still just a preseason game, so don't expect them to make any sacrifices in the 4th quarter to win at all costs, as that's not the objective.


Final score prediction: Patriots 27 – Bucs 17


The Over 36.5 is of definite value as are any plays on the Pats, especially any first half bet that has them as any kind of dog at -110 or better, as well as the game ML and Team Total Over. ***Update, took NE Team Total Over 17 (-120) -- my favorite play on the board after capping the first 7 games.

[Sports Cruncher]

PHI @ PIT, NLFx Week #2, 2011


PIT comes into this game still stirring a very large pot holding their offensive line, trying to find the right placement of personnel for the big beef stew. Consistency up front is the key to offensive success, so while the Steelers may have not found it yet, they are likely to let what they hope to be their starting 5 play deeper into the game than the Eagles do.


PIT has some competition for the bottom receiver spots, and now with newly signed Jerricho Cotchery trying to crack one of the top four spots, expect the PIT receivers to play hard in this game. If there's anyone that PIT might be worried about playing hard, it's 3rd string (maybe 4th now) QB D. Dixon, who wanted out of PIT during the offseason, unhappy to grow old watching Big Ben start every game when healthy. Dixon was only 1 of 10 for 29 yards versus WAS in the opener. I do not know where his head is at now, but it looks to be a little off given the circumstances and his play.


Defensively PIT has no real questions to answer heading toward the regular season, but they do have multiple injuries at cornerback, including top CB Ike Taylor who broke his thumb and is out for the rest of the preseason. With preseason defenses throwing fewer blitzes at opposing teams, expect the Philly passing game to have decent success versus the hampered PIT secondary.


PHI is pretty set after all of it's major free agent signings. Vick was strong versus BAL in the opener, while Kafka and Young behind him did an okay job. They figure to do about the same versus the PIT defense. Coach Reid says he's looking forward to the challenge of playing against a tough opponent like BAL, but I'm not really buying it. Rest assured that PHI is extremely happy that back to back games versus BAL and PIT are taking place in the preseason. Reid has announced he's playing his starters the entire first half, but I can't see him fielding any good players in the 2nd half of this contest. This is a road game for a team with nothing to prove in the preseason – a team still slowly adding playing time to star players either signed late or dealing with injuries.


I think the only preseason game remaining that Philly cares about winning is the main tune-up game in week #3 vs. CLE, which is also their only remaining home game. PIT, after dropping their opening contest versus the “hungry for any scraps” Shanahan-led Redskins, on the road, would definitely like to play hard and try to win their next two games, which are at home, especially in light of the offensive issues they're trying to figure out, even if they are the returning AFC champs.. I don't know that Tomlin has ever had a losing record in a preseason.


With more to figure out and more motivation to win, I think that PIT gets it done at home this week versus a PHI team that might be content to run some clock in the 2nd half and go home, saving their energy and marquee players for the following week. PHI has a rookie kicker who made both attempts in week #1, but struggled mightily in practice afterward, so that's a wildcard not in PHI's favor.


I guess that the image of two scary defenses paired with not a lot of offensive points in the first game has kept this one of the lower totals on the board this week. The truth is, both teams played against what should have been pretty hapless offenses last week. PIT gave up 16 to the quarterbackless Redskins, making Grossman and Clemens look like viable NFL qbs. The Redskins seriously underperformed in yards per point, too, racking up 452 yards with an impressive 5.8 yards per play. PHI gave up only six points to the Ravens, but looking at that game, Flacco only attempted 6 passes (completing 3 for a high 60 yards), while rookie Tyrod Taylor played the rest of the game, and he had a decent completion rate and yards per pass, but his two interceptions ultimately cost BAL the game, as they had near identical yards gained to PHI, 313 to 320, and actually had a higher yards per play average of 5.1 to 4.8. The Ravens also had a dismal yards per point ratio.


As long as yards per point returns to something normal this week, I think this game goes easily Over the total.


Final Score Prediction: PIT 23 – PHI 17 after PHI's kicker misses a field goal at some point, giving PIT the cover.


Best bets for the game: Any Over 33.5 is good, there are still some available as of this writing. After some new analysis I think the Steelers will really be in this one to win, but the Eagles won't. In spite of my prediction of a PIT win, there is a high level of uncertainty because I'm not sure who's going to play QB in the 2nd half – Leftwich or Dixon, or whether they'll have equal attempts like they did in game #1.. Dixon is bound to play better than last week, though, and he's still dangerous with his feet. Any PHI Team Total 1st half Over any number less than 10 would be a good option, as Vick will be going up against back up cornerbacks the entire half, the same secondary that gave up over 300 yards of passing to Grossman and Clemens. PHI should play strong for the first half,

[bobbyk1133]

Great in-depth analysis. I will say that deciphering anything meaningful out of week 1 preseason stats in a post-lockout season is sketchy at best though. I disagree about PIT being more motivated than PHI, but I'm not going to knock the write-ups. It's a welcome sight on these boards. Lately its all been glory-hunters and haters.

Good luck with your picks. 'OVER's have been a solid play so far...

[PUDS]

nice write up man ! looking to read more of your analysis
keep it up !

[odog11]

Excellent write ups. Think I may do a small parlay Patriots + 2.5 and over 36.5.

[golfrulz]

thx for the write ups.

[shopbar picks]

Agreed good write ups thanx

[slim dog]

SC,
Is there any way you can rate your plays with units? Is the over tonight on Pats the top play this week?
Thanks for the info! Good stuff!

[hankcream]

Great info & insight Mr. Cruncher, are you a professional?

[odog11]

Thx, all. Slim - in the regular season I'm all about units and super accurate record keeping, not so much in the preseason. Pats' Team Total Over 17 is my favorite bet so far (still plenty of games left to cap). The Pats' played the most uptempo offense of any team in week #1, even when comfortably ahead. They'll be up against a banged-up secondary, so yeah, really like this play. The Pats did it all without their starters, so they could put 17 on the board in either half tonight. Other than the Pats eveything else is a little on the small side, as things will still tend to be more random than the regular season here. Small/refillable NFL only bankrolls, 3-5% a play, large bankrolls 1% or less for the regular plays still.

Seeing some movement on this, Pats total going to 17.5 and total to 38 at one book, if you want the Pats total get it in quick. I am on them for over 7.5 for the first half, good luck all, little bit of extra juice, but really like the play.

[BarkingToad]

Great stuff! Thanks for your in depth analysis. BOL this season and look forward to seeing your future write ups.

[JAKEPEAVY21]

nice analysis, gl cruncher

[odog11]

Good work, got in on the Saints before it moves anymore. Also going to be watching for that Atlanta 1st half total. At what point would you say it is too high to be a good bet?

[Jive]

Watch out for the Colts tonight, even with no Manning. The Redskins will be sitting at least 6 defensive starters (including 3/4 of the secondary), Beck has been off in practice following his injury, and the Redskins have some guy kicking for them who they just pulled in off the street because the regular kicker's wife had a baby last night. I suspect the Redskins will play the offensive starters the entire first half and they will likely throw a lot of passes to evaluate Beck. That could mean a lot of points for Washington but just as likely it will mean a lot of punts and possessions for the Colts.

[BarkingToad]

Good stuff, Jive. I get it Indy sux in preseason and never wins but I always get concerned when EVERYBODY plays that angle the whole world now knows about. In the past the point spreads were within a field goal, now the line was a high as 6 but down to 5 and 4.5. Everyone seems to be playing the technical angle at much higher price than in the past and may be overlooking the fundamental which Jive explained.

Betting on Washington strictly on the technicals possibly

[hoku808pc]

Damn bro... So far for pre season, you looking damn good... Love the write ups... Keep up the good work...

You gonna be posting the whole season??? If you are, Ill be keeping a good eye on your threads...

Aloha

[shopbar picks]

Very inpressive. Love write ups. Thanx for posting this stuff

[Pete0]

Great writeups !!

[odog11]

OAK@SF_NLFx_Week #2_2011 The SF offense looks destined to struggle this entire preseason. New coach Harbaugh might have the weakest stable of qbs in the league. With 3 rookies behind projected starter Smith SF just signed Josh McCown to a 1 year deal, adding a veteran back up. Their offensive line doesn't look ready to help much, either. NO blitzed constantly early in the game, bucking the usual preseason vanilla D. trend for a scoop of Rocky Road, resulting in constant pressure, hits and sacks on both Smith and 2nd stringer Kaepernick. Guess which other team was uncharacteristically aggressive rushing the passer last week? Yup, this week's opponent, OAK, so SF will be seeing phantom pass-rushers whether they materialize or not. Round #1 of unintentional mind games goes to OAK. Expectations are high for OAK this year, and the offense seems poised to deliver. They were still the Silver & Flagged in week #1, so big talk has failed to turn that around yet, but hey, it's early. Future roster castoffs surrendered a lot of big plays to ARI, so it's up to SF to block and execute well enough to get the ball down the field throughout this game. SF coach Harbaugh is on a mission to cure WR in-game boredom, but maybe that's just deep cover for keeping newly acquired Braylon Edwards interested between the 2 or 3 long balls that rate to come his way this season. With new head coaches this rates to be a high intensity game, compounded by both teams having lost last week. OAK is ahead on offense, SF on defense, but OAK's defensive struggles may not be as present when more starters are on the field, which is not the case for SF's offense. OAK will have a better quarterback in the game at all times, giving them the slight winning edge on the road (if you consider packing up the minivan and crossing the Bay Bridge being “on the road.” Probably fails any Kerouac-litmus test.) Final Score Prediction: OAK 16 – SF 13 Best bets: The Bridge Raiders and Under 34

Thinking of taking the Raiders 1st half +.5. as it should be low scorin and a tie score seems fairly likely?

[firehoyt]

What's your record so far with preseason?

[bobbyk1133]

SD 1st half is great bet. Turner said he's going to play the 1st half like a regular season game. GL to us.

[Winning oasis]

Heres your "juicy middle" I hope they DONT SCORE ANYMORE in the second half.

[Moosark]

Good luck with your picks today!!

[bobbyk1133]

SD 1st half is great bet. Turner said he's going to play the 1st half like a regular season game. GL to us.

Thanks for the share, bobby. Let's hope that line stays where it is.

Cashed. One of the easiest bets of the week.

[VTranX]

I have 2 on the NYG and 2 on the under. GL guys.

[shopbar picks]

nice call on the giants. Thanx

[odog11]

Good work so far and don't abandon us entirely here man. There is no way the regular season can be as easy as this pre-season has been so far, we will need the help!

[BarkingToad]

What a tease. Adios, krispy crunch.

[Pete0]

classic tout marketing strategies.

[VTranX]

Best write ups on SBR. thanx for your time here.