I'm just going to say that today's slate of games is pretty bad - but even worse, the lines are actually pretty strong. I'm not going to bother with the O/U angle - I barely like the under in all 3 games, with some uncertainty in the Phi/Ari game with that.

Seattle and Det might be good 10 point teaser plays, I actually favor that angle (with Ari in there, as well) - but that isn't exactly the path to victory - 3 road dogs. You're going to lose one, simple as that.

As for Philly... This one is puzzling to me. I'm sure most of you just read about McNabb being benched and only saw highlights. I watched the tape and I saw 2 things in that game, however, that make me even more puzzled with what the hell Andy Reid is doing.

1- BOTH defenses were LOCK DOWN solid. Neither offense could get ANYTHING going at all. The turnovers McNabb set up very very short drives for minimal scores. Philly's defense was amazingly brilliant in the first half.

2- Baltimore was playing a 'bail out' cover 2 type of scheme - with limited blitzing and definitly nothing exotic. They made McNabb throw the ball and they backed into a shell STARTING about 10 yards down the field, giving Philly only underneath stuff. However, the offensive packages Philly was putting out did not take advantage of this. They didn't run any screen/draw plays, they kept backs in to cover rather than get out and attack the flat - and they sent the TE verticle rather than short, leaving McNabb with nothing other than throwing into a couple receivers covered with inside/outside/over the top zone coverage.

Baltimore MADE McNabb throw the ball down the field and try to beat them this way. Ok, good job by Baltimore - but what the hell was Andy Reid doing? Philly is as good of a quick slant/screen/flat passing attack team as there is in the NFL - and they did NONE of it. Baltimore is VERY weak on the corner - yet there were no qucik outs or short curls. It was, in my estimation, the worst offensive game plan I've seen - sheesh, since Mike Martz in Detroit last year.

So that leaves me with how Philly will respond this week. I think McNabb is still very good, but their offensive play calling is horrendous (and has been much of the year). I think the Arizona defense has some playmakers, but overall, exploitable. Also, I expect Philly's defense to want to take out their frustration on a QB that was born to be exploited by it.
I'm just shocked Philly is favored by 3. I don't see them winning by all that much, if at all -there is a danger they could be flat. So where's the value?
Not much there at all - except with the under, perhaps, but even that is uncertain in a national night game.

As for the other 2 games - Ten is not the type of team that plays to blow you out. They let you hold the ball and move it slowly after they get a lead - then make you punt or kick field goals (or they pick it off). I really like what I've seen from Culpepper - but he is a turnover machine - making a 'pick 6' late very likely, but you don't bet banking on something like that. OK - so where's the value there? I don't see any.

For Dallas/Sea - Dallas is a 'front runner' team. They let one or two guys make all the plays and get a lead, THEN the rest of the team shows up and dances around and flexes like a bunch of classless twits. Can Seattle stay in the ball game? If they can score and keep it close in the first quarter - they will cover. But that's a lot to ask of an enemic offense and Sea's weak defense. So now you're banking on Dallas to control the game - how certain is that? Beating up on Sean Hill isn't very impressive. Beating up on a veteran like Matt Hasselback,who is playing for his career right now, is. You just can't do that to a veteran QB. I favor SEA and the points, but where's the value? Dallas, when they get rolling, generate big plays/turnovers - they could win by an asston. Is the value in the o/u? You'd have to expect Dallas to score a lot of points to like the over - SEA is mostly irrelevant in this number... 46 1/2 is a bit much - I like the U here, but still, it's very very uncertain.

In conclusion - not a good 'value' day for betting, in my eyes. Dogs and Unders seem to be my leans across the board - but as a bettor, you want to get your money in good, and I'm not seeing it this week.
GL to those of you that did and have a great Thanksgiving, everyone!