Because I am picking games knowing that the square in me was involved in some of the the decision making...
New York Jets -7.5 -yes I got the line at this price, and I really could not help but hit it. Dig NYJ, they seem to be improving every week and Rams are on the downturn again. Stephen Jackson seems to be iffy injury wise
Baltimore Ravens ML +105 -solid team, dig their defense, Texans are playing a decent backup (I can't see any backup doing well against Baltimore though)
Jacksonville Jags -6.5 - I feel there is going to be an over reaction to them losing to the Bengals, but I think the Jags have it in them to come back this week and take it out on the Lions. The Lions have no QB... starting Culpepper is seriously in option and he doesn't know anything about the playbook. I believe in Del Rio.
Buff Bills +4 - Feel like this is the smart play, what can I say. Like Edwards, think he will do well against NE secondary.
Miami Dolphins -8 - Now this is where I feel the square in me went with this play. I have indeed been tantalized by Pennington's efficiency and Browns running. Hate laying all these points. Really pisses me off, except that damn angle that Seattle is going as far as any team can in the NFL (West to East Coast early morning thing) This is my gut (which is probably square) Seattle just really blows this year, and I think Pennington will just make his way down the field and score on them.
in case you didn't see the injury report for the Seattle game..........
SEATTLE SEAHAWKS - *Tackle Floyd Womack (11/7, foot) is questionable for
Sunday's game against Miami. *Wide receiver Koren Robinson (11/7, knee) is
probable for Sunday's game against Miami. *Linebacker David Hawthorne (11/7,
calf) will miss Sunday's game against Miami. *Defensive tackle Red Bryant
(11/7, ankle) will miss Sunday's game against Miami. *Linebacker Lofa Tatupu
(11/7, groin) is probable for Sunday's game against Miami. *Running back
Leonard Weaver (11/7, foot) is probable for Sunday's game against Miami.
Defensive end Patrick Kerney (11/4, shoulder) is out indefinitely. *Tight end
Will Heller (11/7, knee) is questionable for Sunday's game against Miami.
*Quarterback Matt Hasselbeck (11/7, back) will miss Sunday's game against
Miami. Wide receiver Logan Payne (9/17, knee) is on injured reserve. Guard
Rob Sims (9/10, pectoral) is on injured reserve. Wide receiver Nate Burleson
(9/9, knee) is on injured reserve. Defensive tackle Chris Cooper (8/30, knee)
is on injured reserve. Wide receiver Ben Obomanu (8/30, clavicle) is on
injured reserve. Cornerback DeMichael Dizer (8/4, knee) is on injured
reserve. Long snapper Tyler Schmitt (8/26, back) is on injured reserve.
Tackle William Robinson (8/26, ankle) is on injured reserve. Linebacker Wesly
Mallard (8/6, hamstring) is on injured reserve. *Wide receiver Deion Branch
(11/7, heel) is questionable for Sunday's game against Miami.
MIAMI DOLPHINS - *Guard Justin Smiley (11/7, shoulder) is probable for
Sunday's game against Seattle. Defensive Back Michael Lehan (10/24,
hamstring/ankle) is on injured reserve. Guard Donald Thomas (9/9, foot) is on
injured reserve.
I know of that west coast to east coast trend as well. didn't like the line, but then i seen the injury report. i know, some people don't look at these reports, but i read them every week, and i don't see how miami doesn't just walk up and down the field like you said earlier. joey porter should have minimum 2 sacks by the end of this game. i mean look at seattles injuries, granted half have been on the IR for awhile, but even with the walking wounded they have played, is hard enough.
as far as Buffalo, since DE/LB Schobel has gone down with an injury, Buffalo hasn't played well at all. Buffalo also has 2 starter in the secondary out for this game. NE has the injuries we all know of and are still playing to their potential. Buffalo hasn't reached this type of potential, and the injuries are depleting their ability to compete. NE had to compete from week 1 and are doing a half ass decent job with what they have.
I'm taking Detriot, only out of the sole reason that it's a "law of the averages" kinda deal. sooner or later they'll win, and why wouldn't they win against a team that just gave the Bengals their first win, with a backup QB. also, if you are taking miami because of the west coast to east coast trend, then you have to take this trend into consideration......Detriot is 9-1 ATS after 7+ straight up losses. Now, that's a strong trend considering that Detriot has lost 7+ for how many years now.
the other two i like as well. st louis outdoors doesn't work. and baltimore should be able to rock Sage the Choker.
Yes I look at the injury report for sure for sure. I agree with you in that it's super important.
Regarding the Jaguars game... The Bengals, I feel are a better team than Detroit. The backup Fitzy isn't horrendous or anything, but as I said, Detroit has no legitimate QB option at the moment. On a side note, I don't really believe in using the transitive property when capping games. I think that the two theories you mentioned are not relevant at all. Be very careful with Data Mining error (Detroit of 3+ years ago has pretty much nothing to do with the Lions team of today other than the fact that they are/were lousy teams) Also the law of averages is not a viable reason for picking Detroit. Ex. If I throw a coin and I get heads 9 times, there is still a 50/50 chance I get heads/tails on my next toss, even though tails is "due".
Regarding Bills game... Part of the reason I chose this game is because of the reverse line movement that has been coming in on this game. That is what really put me over the edge. The Bills are a legit team and have impressed me. I have been impressed with their play (even in their losses) and impressed with QB play. My feeling is that the Bills have become under rated while NE has become a bit overrated (that Monday night game against Denver made them look like last years Pats).
I appreciate the dialogue and BOL this week! Those are my thoughts hopefully I don't go 0-4 and make a donkey out of myself.
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Why not say my picks this week?
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