So going down my potential card for week 8 in the NFL - and looking over everything. I'm really having a hard time not to love chalk this week. Normally theres 2-3 dogs I love and 2-3 I think are pretty reasonable plays. The problem is, there's only 2 I really like, and to be honest - one feels 'trappish'.
The first being Tampa +2, not a big deal in terms of getting value with points - but I think Dallas is over-valued in this game slightly (just a few points). Ok, not a big limb I'm on there.
The second is Atlanta +9. I really like the Atlanta D. I've been riding them often and heavily and have done well with them when I feel it's a good situation. They are a decent 'meh' team with an absolute monster in John Abraham on D - and a couple of other studs. But something about this line bugs me...
Philly has been a very sexy team week in/out. They're a good team, not great. They've had some big wins and benefitted from some weak/stupid opponents. I know Andy Reid is 9-0 off the bye week, also. But laying 9 against a tough defense that is playing solid football every week? Is the public that much in love with Philly? I don't get it. I don't get it one bit. To be honest, there's about 3-5 points in value here in favor of Atlanta - I dunno, maybe I'm putting too much value on Atlanta. If the line was say Atl +6 - I'd feel safer with the points, weird, huh?
I guess some other prospects:
St Louis +7 - no value here. They're hot, on the road, should be getting another 3 IMO. I'm 90% sure Steven Jackson will not play - everything that is being said and he is saying says he will not play. NE's secondary is the issue here, though - if they get any kind of pressure, this game will be a blowout - and with no Jackson, they will get pressure.
Det +7 1/2 - About 7 points, IMO, undervalued - but at home, against a good football team. It's risky on that 7 line playing the favorite even with a crappy team like the lions, but they simply aren't getting enough to be worth it. 10, I'd think about real long and hard.
KC +13 - this is one I'm warming up to, if Huard starts. I havn't dug deep enough into this game to find out, though, yet. Laying almost 2 touchdowns is a big no no IMO, so have to find value in KC, and there really isn't much. In fact, they should be getting 1 1/2 more to be in the wheelhouse.
UPDATED: Tyler Thigpen is going and LJ, which I forgot to mention, is benched for the game. Great, MORE CHALK!
Ari +4 1/2 - Actually fair value here. The spread does favor Arizona in my eyes, but how confident can you bet on them on the road against a strong defense - and also missing Boldin. I dunno, all signs points to Carolina and all handicapping signs point to the Cards. I don't think I could go against Carolina in this spot... And I'll likely regret it.
Cinci +9 1/2 - Again, about a point shy of being a reasonable play. Houston is an underrated 'meh' team. They're 8-8 good and completely undervalued still IMO, although, they don't ever cover. So I'm clearly wrong on the Texans - and if I'm wrong, then why are they laying 9 1/2? Oh yeah, they're playing Cinci haha. Ugh - I don't have enough insight into whats going on in Bengal land right now, my tipsters havn't been available all week.
Sea +4 1/2 - This is actually a decent line. It's so decent, I want to take SF. SEA got mauled by the 9rs earlier and I have a feeling Gore will get the ball more - as Mike Singletary is taking over, and I think if Mike Martz is scared enough of ol Mikey boy - then he will listen and do the right thing and RUN GORE MORE. I think if anything, SF is the play here up to -6 1/2. Great - another chalk bet! ugh
I dunno - I'm missing something here in all these games and dangit, I'm not sleeping until I find the answers. It's rare I have so few dogs on my card at this point of the season - or is it just a chalkish kind of week?
After carefull contemplation and not sleeping all night - the only game I could see taking was the Raiders +8. I just have a feeling they will be tough... SO I faded myself and grabbed the Ravens, and I already feel sick about it. I didn't consider this game earlier - as I like to avoid teams like Oakland.
I worked hard looking at more angles in the Philly/Atlanta game - and I really feel more strongly that it's a trap - so I fell into it and took Atl +9.
I'm also sticking with Tampa and their running game. Dallas likely will be much improved, but I also don't expect Tampa to turn it over like St Louis did last week - the Boys will have to earn this game if they want to win it. I'm a bit concerned about Dunn's status for Tampa, however - if there's one thing I've seen lots of this year is that teams can pound it up the gut on the Cowboys. I've never seen their interior run D look so horrible... Heck, Zach Thomas just looks like a fraction of himself from last year, and he was down last year. It should be noted that their interior tackle play has been disgraceful. Just going over the tape from their game last week again - there was some really really really bad play going on. I'm not so sure they can correct it - and I think Tampa will exploit it.
The rest of my plays are chalk.
I do this every year 1 or 2 weeks... I feel like I did what I was supposed to do, put in a good solid week of working on angles and matchups - and looking for value... And then end up with lots of favorites. Usually this is my worst week of the year - and it straightens things out a bit. It's hard to play so few dogs... It's a lock for losing.
So... Here's to the favs and GL to everyone. It doesn't get any better than Sunday, does it?
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Scary thought - I like a lot of chalk this week
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