[Illusion]

Who do you guys like for Saturday?

I will track everybodies plays, so please make sure you post a line.

Also, I don't mind if you post parlays, teasers, or round robins, but these plays will not be reflected in the standings.

[moses millsap]

2* WLADIMIR KLITSCHKO +155

[LVHerbie]

the only bet I've made for Saturday so far...

Hawaii +2 (2 units)...

I'm sick to say I saw this line at the stardust at +3 late sunday night and didn't jump on it.. I hadn't look at the offshores lines before going down there (big mistake - will have print out in hand next week) and decided to go home and try to get +3 with reduced juice offshores....

anyhow the game was 52-21 last year and, even considering Hawaii is on the road, Hawaii losing alot of talent (4 returning starters on offense) and Idaho hanging with a couple mid-level teams this year I still can't see Hawaii not pulling this one out... I think I would probably make a small bet on this game at pick 'em and will begruntly take the +2 (for two units) now since the margin seems to be continuing to shrink...

The other two openings I wished I would have jump on are Arizona St. -4.5 (stardust) and USC -19.5 (offshores)... I don't think I'm going to take either game now sitting at -6.5 and -21.5 respectfully...

[Senator7]

For Saturday, 1 Unit Each On:

Bowling Green +7.5 (Wednesday Night)
Utah -7 (Thursday Night)
Maryland +3
West Virginia -21
Miami -14
So. Miss. -1.5
LSU -6.5
Wisconsin +3
Hawaii +2

Senator 7

[Razz]

Last weekend was an complete fluke, as we lost about 25* in college football, where everything went wrong, and won about 25* in the NFL, where everything pretty much went right. Here are the college football plays for Saturday:

NCAA Football Overall (29-35-0, -27.30*)
NCAAF Sides (20-27, -29.00*)

7* Illinois +10.5 vs. Michigan St.
Teams coming off an upset of Notre Dame are just 3-17-1 ATS as favorites in their next game. Michigan St. has more history of letdowns recently than any team in the nation. They are 9-1 against Top 10 teams since 1997. They have lost every game after each of those wins, not including a win over Florida in a bowl game. Also, they have Michigan and Ohio St. coming up. Despite the 3-0 start, Michigan St.’s defense has been less than stellar, giving up 6.1 yards per play last week. Illinois has been a team searching for an identity, but Ron Zook has been the answer, bringing a renewed sense of optimism and dedication to the program. The results have already been evident, as the Illini have covered all three games they have played this season.
Prediction: Illinois 37, Michigan St. 35

6* Virginia Tech -11 vs. Georgia Tech
Georgia Tech QB Ball is probably out. He may have picked a good week to miss, as the Hokie defense has been swarming the past two weeks, pitching consecutive shutouts. Without Ball, Virginia Tech will gang up on the running game, which will lead to multiple turnovers and mistakes. VT will almost certainly put at least one defensive or special teams TD on the board. Offensively, the Hokies are starting to click on all cylinders now that QB Marcus Vick has a couple games under his belt.
Prediction: Virginia Tech 31, Georgia Tech 6

5* Mississippi -2 vs. Wyoming
We like Wyoming’s team and head coach a lot, but have to go against them this week. This is a perfect set-up for a big Ole Miss victory. The Rebels proved themselves the better team last season despite a narrow loss in Laramie, gaining 11 more first downs than the Cowboys, and outgaining them by over 170 yards.
Wyoming, not a deep team to begin with, is coming in off an emotionally and physically draining win at their rival and conference foe Air Force. Now they make the long trip to SEC country, which they have already done once this season. With the novelty worn off, and their conference home opener on deck, there is no reason to believe the Cowboys will be inspired to show up.
On the other hand, Mississippi has every reason in the world to play well. They have 37-32 revenge from last year, not the result of being outplayed, but instead the result of five turnovers. Also, this is not only the home opener for the Rebels, but their first home game under new HC Orgeron, and their first home game since Hurricane Katrina decimated that region. Basically, we have a disinterested road opponent only getting two points at a motivated opponent with revenge.
Prediction: Ole Miss 42, Wyoming 31

5* WVU -21 vs. East Carolina
We normally would not like West Virginia here, in a sandwich situation between Maryland and Virginia Tech. However, ECU gave up 407 rushing yards to Wake Forest last week, but got the fluky cover because the Deacs quit playing defense in the fourth quarter. The Mountaineers won’t cede late points as easily; they’ve only given up 26 points in their three games this season. WVU has rushed for 478 and 361 yards the last two times against the Pirates.
Prediction: WVU 45, ECU 14

5* Oregon +22 vs. USC
Oregon trailed 17-0 last week at home, and gave up 530 yards, but still was able to do enough offensively to win by three (If you sense angst, its because we had a 6* on Fresno +2.5). We don’t like going against someone with the recent track record that USC has, but it’s almost impossible to avoid taking over three touchdowns with Oregon in Autzen Stadium. Despite the offensive dominance this year, USC’s defense has shown some flaws, and they will likely be without three defensive starters this weekend. Also, there are an abundance of trends backing this play up. USC was only 1-3 ATS on road in Pac-10 last year. Mike Belotti is 16-6 as a dog since 2000. The Ducks have only lost three home games in their history by more than 20 points, and they are 53-6 in Autzen Stadium recently.
Prediction: USC 42, Oregon 31

4* Alabama -15 vs. Arkansas
Mike Shula has the same number of SEC victories in Tuscaloosa as Phil Fulmer and Tommy Tuberville. Still, we are starting to feel this could be his team’s breakout season. Check 470-199 and 489-252 yard advantages their past two weeks, versus decent defenses in Southern Miss and South Carolina. If Bama were to run the ball every play of this game they would have no choice but to cover. With Croyle back, and a rejuvenated passing attack, they have plenty of extra weapons to make this one ugly. Meanwhile, the Tide defense is among the best in the nation, returning nine starters from last year. Arkansas is sorely missing the 14 starters from last season that are no longer on the team, as evidenced by their failure to cover by 14.5 and 21 points in their first two lined games. And don’t worry about a look ahead to Florida next week; the Tide have double revenge, including a 17-point loss at Arkansas last season.
Prediction: Alabama 37, Arkansas 6

4* SMU +4 vs. Tulane
We’ve seen this before. SMU gets blown out on the road, and comes home to get an upset win. No reason why it won’t happen again this week, especially against a Tulane team that has been traveling across the southeast. Before getting annihilated in the second half last week, the Ponies, who have more returning starters than anyone in the nation, actually moved the ball against the A&M secondary. SMU offense has two solid QBs and a freshman running back who scored three touchdowns on 118 yards his last home game. Tulane has a nice QB, but little else offensively.
Prediction: SMU 27, Tulane 24

3* Florida Atlantic -7.5 vs. LA-Monroe (Thursday)
Monroe is bad offensively and worse defensively. Florida Atlantic has played a ridiculous schedule so far (Kansas, Oklahoma St., Minnesota), but playing a downtrodden opponent is the perfect cure for an 0-3 start. FAU played their first two opponents close, but failed to get any victories, because of turnovers and penalties. Now, they come home to beat up on a team that is winless, despite playing a Division-II team.
Prediction: Florida Atlantic 27, LA-Monroe 10

2* Wisconsin +3 vs. Michigan
In a battled of overrated teams, we prefer the home team getting points. Michigan’s run defense allowed Northern Illinois’ RB Wolfe to rush for 148 in opener, and Wisky RB Calhoun has been running over everybody, having already scored eight touchdowns this season. After giving up 35 points in first half against loaded Bowling Green offense, the Badgers have only given up 10 offensive points in 10 quarters. Camp Randall makes the difference.
Prediction: Wisconsin 20, Michigan 17

2* South Carolina -20 vs. Troy
Steve Spurrier has a history of pounding inferior opponents after a loss. The Gamecocks will be coming out firing against a Troy squad that was blistered last week. The embarrassed South Carolina defense will make a point of holding the Trojans down. South Carolina actually moved the ball fairly well against dominant Bama defense, and this week will seem much easier.
Prediction: South Carolina 38, Troy 10

2* Colorado St. -18 vs. Nevada
Why not? Nevada hasn’t covered any of their last eight road games. Colorado St. has had a week to rest up for their home opener after two road losses to quality Colorado and Minnesota teams. QB Holland and the rest of the Rams offense should move the ball with ease against the Wolfpack defense, which has given up 226 rush yards per game.
Prediction: CSU 45, Nevada 17

2* Purdue +4 vs. Minnesota
Purdue has the best rushing defense in the nation so far, and that is an absolute necessary against this loaded Minnesota rushing attack. We always like taking the vaunted defense against the potent offense. As far as the Boilers offense is concerned, Joe Tiller has churned out another successful QB in Kirsch, and RB Jerod Void also a big plus against a weak Gopher defense. Purdue has won seven straight in this series, and covered six of those games.
Prediction: Purdue 30, Minnesota 27

2* Idaho -1 vs. Hawaii
Hawaii has the worst road ATS record in recent seasons, 1-9 last 2+ seasons. Not only has Hawaii not won a game on the mainland since 2003, every loss during that timeframe was by double digits. Idaho looked very bad last week in loss at Washington, probably the result of three demanding games away from home. They already proved their mettle by hanging with Washington St., and returning home for a comfortable win is the solution. The passing combination of QB Wichman and WR Smith should doom the miserable Rainbow secondary. The Vandals are ready for this rematch, as they felt insulted at the end of last meeting when Hawaii continued running their offense with a late 45-21 lead, and scored with only 23 seconds remaining. Now the tables turn, with Idaho being not only the better team, but at home.
Prediction: Idaho 42, Hawaii 31

2* BYU -3.5 vs. TCU
Rested BYU looking to win their first game against a Division-I team. TCU comes in off an emotional win, that was basically handed to them by the officials. BYU has sufficient defense, especially against the run, to keep the Horned Frogs down, and they will be able to do enough offensively, with QB Beck settling into the Cougars offensive system.
Prediction: BYU 24, TCU 13

2* North Carolina St. -10 vs. North Carolina
This North Carolina St. team is absolutely baffling. Despite having outgained their last 13 opponents (including a dominant performance against Virginia Tech in the opener, outgaining the Hokies by over 200 yards), they are only 6-7 in those games. Last year’s meeting in this rivalry saw NC St. outgain the Tar Heels 577-356, but commit the only three turnovers of the game on their way to a controversial 30-24 loss (RB MCClendon clearly scored what would have been game-winning TD, but officials blew call). The Wolfpack had Eastern Kentucky last week and have a bye next week, so their full concentration will be on this game. Meanwhile, North Carolina comes in off difficult losses to physical Georgia Tech and Wisconsin teams. This is a battle of a fresh favorite with plenty of motivation and a tired underdog that lacks the personnel to keep it close. We’ll ignore the trends in this one, and call for revenge.
NC St. 27, UNC 7

2* Oregon St. +7 vs. Arizona St.
In the NFL, one of our premium strategies is to go against a team that looked impressive playing a team that looked terrible the week before. We have the same scenario here at the college level, and the general public is making the all-too common mistake of overvaluing last week’s results. The Beavers are 8-1 ATS in the first of BB home games and the host in this series is 16-2 ATS with seven straight wins. Oregon St. is 13-3 ATS recently in conference home games with revenge. Arizona St. has USC coming up next week, and could find themselves in a quick hole if they are thinking about anything other than winning this week. This could be a shootout, as both teams’ pass defenses are porous, and QB’s Moore and Keller will have open targets all day.
Prediction: Oregon St. 41, Arizona St. 38

1* Notre Dame -13.5 @ Washington
Notre Dame travels to Washington to meet the least talented team they will play this season. Luckily, they have the added incentive of meeting their former coach, and will not be flat in this game. Charlie Weis will attempt to correct the defensive lapses that led to the Irish’s downfall last season, while QB Quinn will have a huge day against the helpless, and injured, Husky secondary. This one could be even uglier than last year’s 38-3 Notre Dame rout.
Prediction: ND 45, Washington 14

1* Tennessee +7 @ LSU
LSU will have several different emotions flowing through them after the hurricane, new head coach, and home opener. Whether this works in their favor is yet to be seen. Their defense gave up plenty of points and yards to Arizona St., but we aren’t sure how much the Vols can capitalize on that, as they have been struggling to put points on the board. This is a small play because of the questions, but the Vols are 6-3 recently as a road dog, and we think they at least keep this close with their stifling defense.
Prediction: LSU 17, Tennessee 14


NCAAF Totals (9-8-0, +1.70*)

3* Iowa @ Ohio St. Under 41.0
2* Eastern Michigan @ Central Michigan Over 57.5
2* Michigan @ Wisconsin Under 49.0
2* New Mexico @ UTEP Over 56.5
2* UNC @ NC St. Under 44.5
1* Iowa St. @ Army Under 46
1* Tennessee @ LSU Under 42.5
1* Arkansas @ Alabama Under 48.5

[BuddyBear]

Been super busy with school and grading papers all of a sudden and the dreaded wedding #2 is this weekend so life is becoming miserable very quickly. I haven't had much time to post since this past Monday night. I'll post as much as I can but might only be posting plays for now till I can get this difficult stretch of the semester out of the way.

Going to start posting the plays that I have already put in and I'll keep updating it as the week goes on so if you are interested just check back in later.

As always, plays are for 1 unit and almost all plays are against the public. Line value and line forecasting are very important in my betting strategy so sometimes a bet on Monday morning is better than a bet on Saturday afternoon if you can predict public reaction. I'll try to stick to 5-7 games a week as I've told myself but it could be less, could be more depends on the quality of the games.

NCAAF: 12-8 (+3.46 units)

Bowling Green/Boise St Over 75.5 (-104 @Pinnacle)
Air Force/Utah Under 55 (-110 @Canbet)
New Mexico St +30 (-110 @SIA)
Northwestern +7.5 (-103 @Pinnacle)
Iowa +8 (+105 @Pinnacle)
Kentucky +23 (-105 @SIA)
Oregon St +7 (+100 @SIA)
Oregon +21 (-110 @SIA)









Good luck to everyone this weekend! :0000016:

[bigpig19]

Total Football for year (-1.8*)
Total Football w/consensus partner (+6.1*)

no right ups again because of lack of time

7* Va Tech -11
4* Wisconsin +3
3* Tennessee+7
3* Notre Dame -13'
2* Oregon +21'
2* Oregon St. +6'

Totals
2* Georgia/Miss. St. under 42'
2*Maryland/Wake Forest under 47'
1* Va. Tech/Georgia Tech under 40
1* B.C/Clemson over 42

[Razz]

Upgrades:
Colorado St. -18 is now a 4*
South Carolina -20 is now a 3*

Adding:
3* Penn St. -7.5 vs. N'western

[DancingNancie]

Clemson -3 (EVEN)
Maryland +3 (-125)
Louisville -21 (-105)
Arizona State -7 (-105)
Michigan -3 (EVEN)
Northern Illinois -7 (-105)

well what do you guys think

andrew

[kalmikrazy]

colorado +14 20*
K state -24 20*
Northwestern +8 15*

[freebie]

Hey Razz,
Was looking forward to your MLB picks. All 3 of them cashed in yesterday!

[stump]

Illinois + 10.5
Ga Tech / Va Tech over 40
Miss State + 15
Kentucky / Fla over 51.5
WVU/East Carolina over 53
Wyoming + 2.5
Wyoming/Miss over 47

ytd 7 - 5

[Razz]

Freebie, thanks for the support. Unfortunately, tomorrow's baseball card looks pretty weak. I think I'll just watch and come back with something Sunday. If you want to play something, I think the Yankees are laying way too much with Wright against Downs.

[LVHerbie]

My saturday card (so far)... also for simplicity and ease in posting I'm only going to post the current line at Pinnacle (actually placed all but one of these bets there anyhow)... it goes without saying shop around (as I did)

Hawaii +2 - 2 units (posted ealier - best line I see right now is +1 -107)

New Mexico +2.5 +101 (1 unit)
San Diego St -14 +102 (2 units)
Marshall -3.5 -101 (1 unit)
Tulane -3.5 -101 (2 units)

[moses millsap]

My early slate:

Michigan State -10 (-110)
Western Michigan -3 (-110)
Iowa +7.5 (-112)
Georgia Tech +12 (-113)
Purdue +3 (-102)
Northwestern +10 (-115)
Boston College/Clemson Under 42.5 (-110)
TCU +3.5 (-116)
Miami -14 (-108)

All for a unit. Big play on Northern Illinois, but will wait to see what price I can get at 6.5

[aceking]

Anyone bet soccer ? Unbeaten Chelsea will win again -450

[Emmdoubleu]

Hey Razz,
Was looking forward to your MLB picks. All 3 of them cashed in yesterday!

Razz is the man...especially on MLB. Careful..dude will turn you into a Brewer fan.

[Emmdoubleu]

Everyone that posted on the Cal game last night was posting -30. I had a three teamer for a dime with Angels R/L, Rangers and Cal -28. Never have two points meant so much to me

[LVHerbie]

a few more games today - all lines from pinnacle unless noted

UNLV - m/l -152 (1 unit)
Kentucky +23.5 -110 (1 unit - bodog)
BYU -3.5 +108 (1 unit)
Purdue +3.5 -105 (1 unit - bodog)

the last play I made today I stole from SBR John ;-)

Mich/Wisc. over 47 +100 (2 units - bodog)

[BigD]

Alabama -15 (1unit)
Purdue +3 (1unit)
MLB Blue Jays +227 (2units)

[moses millsap]

Adding:

2* Miami-Fla Over 29 points (-115)

[Todd]

West Virginia -21
Purdue +3.5
Ohio State -7
Penn State -8
ASU -6.5
S Carolina -20
Colorado State -18

[MAB]

2* Virginia Tech -11 (-103)
2* Illinois +10.5 (-101)
2* Notre Dame -12 (-112)
1* Alabama -15 (+100)

Good luck this week to all!

[kdmfox]

Boston College (ML) +125
Purdue (ML) +120
Georgia -14.5 (-110)
Northwestern +7.5 (-110)

[moses millsap]

5* Northern Illinois -7 (-120)

[newb411breaker19]

mich/wisc U46.5 -110 1 UNIT
White sox/Twins O8.5 -106 1 UNIT