1. 03-20-10 02:21 PM #1
    superjeff24
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    Beating MLB spreads

    Beating MLB spreads. As the title says, I want to know what ways to come out ahead on mlb games. It's my favourite sport, and the sport that I know best. However, most of the money I make comes from NCAA hoops and NBA, sports I like but haven't learned as in depth.

    That being said, the site I bet on offers (-110) for each side, and doesn't allow me to buy points to get (-102 or -105 etc.)

    What other ways/methods do people use to surpass this? If there are any sites or general Tips where I can learn to improve my baseball bets I'd be glad to know.

    Thanks
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  2. 03-20-10 03:55 PM #2
    Dunder
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    I certainly can't give you much here, baseball is not my forte.
    Juice on baseball lines does tend to be a bit higher than other US Sports.

    I would suggest you hang around the Baseball Handicapping forum, there are some decent 'cappers there.
    http://www.sportsbookreview.com/forum/baseball-handicapping/
    Last edited by Dunder; 03-20-10 at 08:59 PM.
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  3. 03-20-10 04:40 PM #3
    PatrickBateman
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    Play the dogs!
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  4. 03-20-10 07:56 PM #4
    superjeff24
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    is it profitable to place bets and keep doubling up when a team loses? maybe it's a stupid question, but if done with enough money it should be profitable over a long period right?
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  5. 03-20-10 08:38 PM #5
    Dunder
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    Quote Originally Posted by superjeff24 View Post
    is it profitable to place bets and keep doubling up when a team loses? maybe it's a stupid question, but if done with enough money it should be profitable over a long period right?
    This type of "chase" is not advisable. It is little different to doubling-up (Martingale) in a game like roulette. Eventually you will hit that 8-9 losses in a row which results in a catastrophic loss.

    In the long run, you can only beat the books by hitting a win rate which exceeds the juice (52.5% at -110). If you can do that you will win, if not, you won't.

    Chase systems (of which doubling-up on losses is only one) may mask a lower win rate for a while but ultimately the results would be almost identical, indeed once you become familiar with the concept of utility, the results would be worse.
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  6. 03-20-10 09:44 PM #6
    dcb11
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    Quote Originally Posted by superjeff24 View Post
    is it profitable to place bets and keep doubling up when a team loses? maybe it's a stupid question, but if done with enough money it should be profitable over a long period right?

    Would not advise this method
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  7. 03-20-10 10:43 PM #7
    superjeff24
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    what about betting ML on dogs? if you are consistently risking 100 to win 140 (for example) is this likely to produce strong long-term results?
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  8. 03-21-10 06:57 AM #8
    Dunder
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    Quote Originally Posted by superjeff24 View Post
    what about betting ML on dogs? if you are consistently risking 100 to win 140 (for example) is this likely to produce strong long-term results?
    Unfortunately there are no quick fixes. Blindly betting every dog in MLB over the last 5 years would have been loss making, as would blindly betting every favourite.
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  9. 03-21-10 02:29 PM #9
    superjeff24
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    Granted, betting the Pirates vs Philly on the road is probably -EV, but wouldn't there be some happy medium since you have to win much less than 50% in order to gain a profit.

    One more question: If I am betting 100 bucks on a (150) ML, and I win, does the sports book take any of that profit? I have heard that some sites charge you 3% of your winnings, which would greatly cut into possible profits. Is this accurate?
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  10. 03-21-10 03:01 PM #10
    Dunder
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    Quote Originally Posted by superjeff24 View Post
    Granted, betting the Pirates vs Philly on the road is probably -EV, but wouldn't there be some happy medium since you have to win much less than 50% in order to gain a profit.

    One more question: If I am betting 100 bucks on a (150) ML, and I win, does the sports book take any of that profit? I have heard that some sites charge you 3% of your winnings, which would greatly cut into possible profits. Is this accurate?
    If you bet on the dog money lines, yes you need to win less games to reach break even but, of course less will win. Using the example of +150, you would need to hit at 40% to break even.
    In the long run winning means finding plays where the win likelihood exceeds the implied probability of the odds you bet at. Only over time will you know whether you have the handicapping (or modeling) skills to do this but it is fair to say that those who bet based on instinct only tend to lose.

    With the exception of betting exchanges which apply commissions, no sportsbook I know of will apply any form of deductions to the amount that you win.
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  11. 03-22-10 10:50 PM #11
    TodaysAction
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    M.L.B. is about the match-ups (pitchers vs batters). Find a pitcher who does well against the opposition's normal starters, add in other factors that you like and make your informed choice.
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  12. 03-24-10 09:17 AM #12
    therber2
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    One way to get good dog lines is often to fade the hype. A line is often jacked up high because a slick starting pitcher is in or it is something like the NYY playing the Nats...most of the time the Nats are going to be the dogs. A number of factors could come into play, but I'll give one hypothetical where it might be a good deal to take the dog:
    -slick SP for NYY is in a 3day/game slump but he has a high career ERA and WHIP
    -the bats are dry for the NYY but long term they are good
    -the bullpen is all texting their girlfriends on their cell phones
    -the Nats pitcher is either underrated or he is on a hot streak
    -the bats are hot
    the Nats are dogs of +130 to EV at home after a successful road trip (made up positive trend). There is a good site out there the comes up with these wacky trends that seem to magically work out every now and then. Not sure if I can link it. PM if you would like.
    -last, for some good reason the Nats just want to win a whole lot more than the NYY. Maybe they like to finish up the week well. Maybe NYY won most of their games for the week and are thinking about some party they want to attend on a Friday.
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  13. 03-24-10 09:22 AM #13
    TheLock
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    Betting on baseball can not be summed up in a nice tidy paragraph. Dunder is doing his best to offer advice but some of you guys are being really naive.
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  14. 03-24-10 09:43 AM #14
    Bankroll$10
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    I agree that there are WAY to many factors when betting on baseball, some having a greater affect than others, to say that these are the factors to look for when betting on baseball. These factors can range from a variety of things such as the weather or events happening in one's personal life that the betting community is oblivious to. When it comes down to it, any bet you win in baseball is lucky.
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  15. 03-24-10 03:18 PM #15
    GoldenState78
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    gotta love the hot dogs at the game though!
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  16. 03-25-10 01:35 AM #16
    Extra Innings
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    Well your talking ML. There is value in the RunLine Spread @ times especially when couple with a chalky ML
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  17. 03-25-10 07:59 AM #17
    TheLock
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    Quote Originally Posted by TheLock View Post
    Betting on baseball can not be summed up in a nice tidy paragraph. Dunder is doing his best to offer advice but some of you guys are being really naive.
    I did not realize this was the newbie forum. My naive comment was pretty dumb.


    Carry on gentleman.
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  18. 03-31-10 02:25 AM #18
    THE PROFIT
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    Quote Originally Posted by TheLock View Post
    I did not realize this was the newbie forum. My naive comment was pretty dumb.


    Carry on gentleman.


    This is like talkin bettin' with my brothers kids or somethin'! Nerve rackin' sons a bitches
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  19. 04-03-10 11:25 AM #19
    haps247
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    better off tailing a good capper
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  20. 04-09-10 06:39 PM #20
    dwTaxes
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    At risk of being the kitten in your crosshairs haps what's a 'capper'...I'm as noob as they come. Looking to save some taxes by betting on sports rather than stocks. Gotta love Canada tax law.
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  21. 04-09-10 07:38 PM #21
    Dunder
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    Quote Originally Posted by dwTaxes View Post
    At risk of being the kitten in your crosshairs haps what's a 'capper'...I'm as noob as they come. Looking to save some taxes by betting on sports rather than stocks. Gotta love Canada tax law.
    capper = handicapper = bettor who makes selections based on data/statistics.
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