[mikmak]

Hi all. I'm new to SBR. I've been doing a bit of lurking the past couple days and it seems like we have some very knowledgeable people on the board. I'm a casual bettor for the most part. I usually come out ahead on the year but I am very much a feel bettor that also relies on statistical mismatches and situation plays. I play NFL, CFB, and CBB and win at a 52-53% clip normally with some good seasons and some not so good seasons. So basically, I win enough of the time to have the vig eat up most of my potential profits. I'm not necessarily looking to quit my job and cap full time but I don't mind putting in the work to be a better player.

What I'm looking for is some type of tutorial to get me started in coming up with a power rating system for teams and then apply that to a system to handicap my lines ahead of time as apposed to looking at my book's lines and doing my reactionary analysis from there. I'm not a math genius but I'm a computer tech and am certainly good with math and I'm not afraid of learning knew things. I just don't know where to start and I want to do this "the right way", if there is such a thing.

Any input from some of the veterans to help this casual bettor become more of an intermediate capper and possibly a sharp at some point down the road would be greatly appreciated.

[statnerds]

1. welcome to SBR

2. you need to decide which camp you are in. i am in the camp that subscribes to EMT. Efficient Market Theory. Basically just about 100% of knowable information about an event (any game) is known and baked into the price. Everyone has access to the same information you do. Unless you are going to use a novel or unique approach, you are wasting time trying to cap games.

3. i love your approach of seeking to get better.

GL

[SBR Annie]

Hi all. I'm new to SBR. I've been doing a bit of lurking the past couple days and it seems like we have some very knowledgeable people on the board. I'm a casual bettor for the most part. I usually come out ahead on the year but I am very much a feel bettor that also relies on statistical mismatches and situation plays. I play NFL, CFB, and CBB and win at a 52-53% clip normally with some good seasons and some not so good seasons. So basically, I win enough of the time to have the vig eat up most of my potential profits. I'm not necessarily looking to quit my job and cap full time but I don't mind putting in the work to be a better player.

What I'm looking for is some type of tutorial to get me started in coming up with a power rating system for teams and then apply that to a system to handicap my lines ahead of time as apposed to looking at my book's lines and doing my reactionary analysis from there. I'm not a math genius but I'm a computer tech and am certainly good with math and I'm not afraid of learning knew things. I just don't know where to start and I want to do this "the right way", if there is such a thing.

Any input from some of the veterans to help this casual bettor become more of an intermediate capper and possibly a sharp at some point down the road would be greatly appreciated.

Welcome to SBR mikmak!If there is anything we can do to assist you , please don't hesitate to ask

[mikmak]

Thanks Annie. Will do.

Also, thank you StatNerds for your reply. So in regards to EMT, you are saying that every game is simply a coin toss as all known info is taken into account when vegas makes the lines? What about public opinion? Certainly there have to be people on this site that have a much better system than myself for using this known information to determine what lines represent value. Isn't the casual bettor and public opinon the variable that creates value in some lines or are the sharps simply putting enough money on the games to counteract this? I have to think there are some things I can do to eek out a few more %.

[mikmak]

Any books out there that aren't complete garbage?

[shevabets]

1. welcome to SBR

2. you need to decide which camp you are in. i am in the camp that subscribes to EMT. Efficient Market Theory. Basically just about 100% of knowable information about an event (any game) is known and baked into the price. Everyone has access to the same information you do. Unless you are going to use a novel or unique approach, you are wasting time trying to cap games.

3. i love your approach of seeking to get better.

GL

True for volume bettors. May not be entirely true if you do your homework daily but wager, say, once a week or 2-3 times a month. Then again, I think this qualifies as 'novel or unique approach' since 99.5% gamblers can't keep their hands away from a betting windows on a daily basis especially now with all the online options. If you have money to bet but are able to stay away because you think there will be an even better opportunity tomorrow (next week, next season) - you definitely have a chance to beat the game.

[Noleafclover]

Statnerds - so why are you here then? And would the efficient market price be the opener, or closer, or something thats unable to be determined by anyone ever?

mikmak - 1) watch sports. 2) look at lines. 3) do homework on the ones that jump out at you. 4) be selective.