I'm gonna do one thread for all the conference tournament picks... no point in doing one everyday.... The first week will be from today thru Sunday... I'll make a seperate one for next week.
All bets will be between 1 and 3 units...
First play:
- Gardner Webb +11 vs Coastal Carolina (2 Units- Medium Play)
I've seen alot of people on it, but it doesn't worry me one bit... Coastal Carolina is in a very bad spot coming into the tourney and at this point, I'd be making UNC Asheville the favorite to win it.
Coastal Carolina is a complete mess right now.... They have just 8 players available for tonights game, and just 7 scholarship players. Between injuries, suspensions and inegibilities, CCU is missing close to 30 ppg of production, not to mention the loss of Holmes earlier in the season. Holloway is the absolute biggest loss, and its unclear when his 18ppg will be able to play again. While they still hve a formidable lineup, they are not deep at all and if any of the top 3 players get in foul trouble (Gray, Gradnigo and Raffa), then it'll be lights out early once again for Coastal Carolina.
Gardner Webb is in a much better position then CCU... They come into the tournament playing there best ball of the season. After starting the season off 7-17, they finished winning 4 out of there last 7., including a surprising win AT Coastal Carolina just two weeks ago from today. The biggest improvement has been on the defensive end by far... They held there opponents to under 1 point per possession in 6 of the final 8 games.
Gardner Webb should have won both of the two meetings between the teams this year, but blew a lead in the first one. The Chandeliers had 30 TOs and hit just 6-23 from 3 in the two meetings.. As long as GWU is able to keep the score in the 50s or 60s, it should be an easy cover for them.. and the +475 ML is definitely worth a shot.
Coastal Carolina 65, Gardner Webb 61
Last edited by BrianLaverty; 03-01-11 at 05:26 PM.
Wisconsin-Green Bay +5.5 vs Wright State (2 Units)
Good spot here for Wisc GB to pull off an upset against a team that they played very well against in both meetings this year.
Both teams had difficult records over the last few weeks. Green Bay finished the year going 2-6, but 3 of the losses were lost in the last 15 seconds... They finished the year 5-0 ATS in the last 5 games.
Wright State on the other hand limp into the tourney going 1-4 the last 5 games, with two of the losses being two point losses.
In the two meetings this year, both games were tied with 10 seconds left.... In the first one, WSU hit a 3 in the closing seconds to win by 3 as 9 point favorites. In the last meeting, they won by 2 in overtime at Green Bay, after GB led by as many as 9 in the 2nd half. To say the teams were evenly matched would be an understatement.
Green Bay has been very good with holding on to the ball all year, but in the two matchups, they committed a combined 35 turnovers. As long as they can hold on to the ball more charcterstically, they should easily cover, and have a real oppurtunity at pulling the upset. GB will definitely have revenge on there minds from the two last second losses, and I expect them to pull out the upset in what should be another close one.
That was about as even a 1st half as you will ever see.... Nothing seperated the two, and I don't see anything changing in the 2nd half. Liberty came into this game losing 4 in a row, and it doesn't look like anything has changed. Should be a close game til the end.
Very unlucky night... Gardner Webb & Wisc GB both were covering for about the first 38 minutes but couldn't close it out.... Tough night... on to the next one
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BrianL's Conference Tournament Picks... Week 1
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