1. 03-01-11 09:27 AM #1
    FR3SH like UgHH
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    Horizon League Championship Rd 1:Loyola-CHI@Det(pick-write up & info)

    As we get this going here, let me say Detroit is a very talented team and i have backed them b4(last time was getting 7@wright st & winning str8 up by 10) and i've also went against them when they were @butler catching 9)...so far so good w/ det games 2-0...

    ...anyways moving on 2night we have Round 1 of the Horizon tourney w/ the #5 Detroit seed @ home to face the #8 seed Loyola Chicago. Now while Detroit is a 'not so average' 10-4 @ home, Loyola is only an almost even 7-6 on the road...

    Now, Detroit has won and covered the last 4 games against Loyola by a margrin 10 pts. or more in every match up....so here why are they only laying 5 pts again against this 'not so tough road team' who every1 expects to be out in the 1st round? HaHa, you tell me! Because the way i see it, this game will be close and might even have the makings of a small upset!

    To have a good chance "MAYBE IT'S HOW YOU START":
    "Since the outset of the 2005-06 season Loyola has compiled an 81-16 (.835) record in games in which it has held the lead at halftime including a 13-1 mark in 2010-11. A loss to Saint Peter's on Feb. 18 was the Ramblers' first when holding a halftime lead since a 63-61 setback to Milwaukee on Feb. 25, 2010."

    Now also, you should know that Detroit had the #1 ranked Offense in the Horizon League this yr...But when Loyola scores 70+ they were 12-4 this yr. and have WON their last 37 out of 47 games...

    DEFENSE IS KEY:
    "Loyola has tightened up its defense at precisely the right time - heading into the League tournament. Last week, the Ramblers held Valparaiso and Butler to a collective 55.5 ppg and 38 percent (43-for-112) shooting from the field and a paltry 22 percent (11-for-49) from three-point territory. In the previous seven games however, the Ramblers had yielded 71.9 ppg and 48 percent (183-for-381) from the field, including 40 percent (48-for-120) from long distance. In fact, the 48 points Loyola limited Valparaiso to were its lowest since managing 44 points at Kansas in the second game of the season."

    FUN FACT: The Detroit Mercy are 0-5 Against The Spread after playing @Wright St. the last 5 years!

    With the line, @-5 probably staying put all day, everybody is eating up the small-lined home fav. in Det who has won L4 by bigger #'s than this as stated above.

    THE PICK: Loyola-Chicago +5(BIG PLAY)
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  2. 03-01-11 09:31 AM #2
    agharah1
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    UD is a one man team with Ray McCallum and a bunch of low-major talent. All they do is layups, this team almost never takes 3 pointers.
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  3. 03-01-11 09:40 AM #3
    jjgolf
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    the last time they played loyola at detroit they were 4.5 underdog now only getting 5 mmmmm you got to think trap
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    Jag44 gave jjgolf 2 SBR Point(s) for this post.
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  4. 03-01-11 09:55 AM #4
    BiffTFinancial
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    nice write-up, i like the over.
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  5. 03-01-11 10:46 AM #5
    ThingsFallApart
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    I don't see this, like Detroit ML even. You were completely off on your writeup about FAU so I have to disagree with this one.
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  6. 03-01-11 10:56 AM #6
    ebbearsfb1
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    Guys solid... so what one bad pick... everything he said was accurate... what have you contributed to the forum?
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  7. 03-01-11 10:57 AM #7
    FR3SH like UgHH
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    Quote Originally Posted by ThingsFallApart View Post
    I don't see this, like Detroit ML even. You were completely off on your writeup about FAU so I have to disagree with this one.
    you live, you learn, your right, your wrong, you win, you lose....lol i could go on forever....

    new day, new game, new pick, new money...

    on to the next 1....

    i really like this play...
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  8. 03-01-11 11:04 AM #8
    ThingsFallApart
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    Quote Originally Posted by FR3SH like UgHH View Post
    you live, you learn, your right, your wrong, you win, you lose....lol i could go on forever.... new day, new game, new pick, new money... on to the next 1.... i really like this play...
    I agree. Hey I wasn't saying youre a f+*%ing idiot or anything, just that I disagree with this one. I like Detroit ML, I'm not really sure what ATS after playing a separate team has to do with this. Looking over Loyola it just looks like either they can beat a team or they can't, their players dont seem to have some hidden talent that the coach just couldnt unlock(like maybe a major conference team), they just simply arent that good.

    I like Detroit ML on this one, but I have also vowed off picking these god awful teams as they are so mediocre theyre frustrating to cap.
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  9. 03-01-11 11:15 AM #9
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    ^ just #'s, info, situation's i factor in when making my pick, like all others.

    also note: Loyola-CHI has double revenge against a team that put up 80 points on them and shot better than 50% in both meetings.
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  10. 03-01-11 11:22 AM #10
    theboatt
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    The line is 4.5 now on the greek, and Detroit is getting a fairly high percent of the bets! ive already got loyola at +5 so im liking this now!
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  11. 03-01-11 11:58 AM #11
    chunk
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    I would lean to Loyola here, but they are playing their 3rd away in 6 days vs better competition. Just enough to put me on the sidelines, but doesn't mean that they can't do this. It is tourney time after all. Good luck to you.
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  12. 03-01-11 12:16 PM #12
    Small Timer
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    I like Detroit, but you're throwing up some interesting numbers. Loyola's win at Valpo makes me think they obviously have a chance at beating Detroit straight up, but I think the Titans have their number this season. Detroit already had this line and covered, so this one could either be a gift or a trap. I'm hoping for a gift.
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  13. 03-01-11 12:19 PM #13
    TPowell
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    Detroit much better on boards and have owned them in both games by double digits for a REASON
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  14. 03-01-11 12:23 PM #14
    IAMWINNER
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    Quote Originally Posted by TPowell View Post
    Detroit much better on boards and have owned them in both games by double digits for a REASON
    And I'm sure Detroit will key on shutting down McCammon as he combined for 33 points in the last two games against Detroit.
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  15. 03-01-11 12:53 PM #15
    chunk
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    Quote Originally Posted by IAMWINNER View Post
    And I'm sure Detroit will key on shutting down McCammon as he combined for 33 points in the last two games against Detroit.
    Detroit playing defense?
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  16. 03-01-11 12:56 PM #16
    IAMWINNER
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    Quote Originally Posted by chunk View Post
    Detroit playing defense?
    Does detroit suck at defense. I haven't really looked at this game.
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  17. 03-01-11 01:01 PM #17
    chunk
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    Ya, they like to outscore you. Previous 2 with Loyola won by Detroit 83-71 and 81-71. That being said, Loyola may want to dictate tempo if possible and keep this lower scoring contest.
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  18. 03-01-11 01:03 PM #18
    IAMWINNER
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    Quote Originally Posted by chunk View Post
    Ya, they like to outscore you. Previous 2 with Loyola won by Detroit 83-71 and 81-71. That being said, Loyola may want to dictate tempo if possible and keep this lower scoring contest.
    They really are similar in numbers except SOS. Detroit in conference SOS is 113 and Loyola is 205 and the game is at Detroit.
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  19. 03-01-11 01:05 PM #19
    zephyr
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    Thanks for the writeup Ughh. I like your thinking here. And the line and the line movement seem to confirm. Loyola or no play. Good luck with your play.
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  20. 03-01-11 01:12 PM #20
    chunk
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    Line down to 4 at most shops. Fr3sh moving lines.
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  21. 03-01-11 01:35 PM #21
    Regul8er
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    I was coming to create a thread, but it seems Fr3sh already took care of it. This line seems way off base. I was expecting to see Detroit as about a 7 or 8 point favorite, especially since they won both meeting with Loyola by double digits this year.

    Something fishy is up!
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  22. 03-01-11 01:40 PM #22
    FR3SH like UgHH
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    good thing i locked it in early! @+5! it's down to 4 @ most places.

    i was looking at this game all night after the 'nova debacle...

    why would the line go down if Det. is getting pounded?

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  23. 03-01-11 01:44 PM #23
    zephyr
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    Quote Originally Posted by FR3SH like UgHH View Post
    why would the line go down if Det. is getting pounded?

    Because the bigger (i.e. sharper) bets are on Loyola.
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  24. 03-01-11 01:45 PM #24
    IAMWINNER
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    Quote Originally Posted by zephyr View Post
    Because the bigger (i.e. sharper) bets are on Loyola.
    How do you know what size the bets are.
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  25. 03-01-11 01:51 PM #25
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    Quote Originally Posted by zephyr View Post
    Because the bigger (i.e. sharper) bets are on Loyola.
    sort of a rhetorical question.....

    lol
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  26. 03-01-11 01:54 PM #26
    zephyr
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    Quote Originally Posted by IAMWINNER View Post
    How do you know what size the bets are.
    We get info on the number of bets being placed on each side; we don't get info on the amount of money going down on each side. I personally believe that the books are interested in keeping the money fairly balanced between the sides (I tend not to believe that they are interested in gambling against the players much.) So, if you think about it, what we see as reverse line movement (the line seemingly moving in the wrong way) can be attributed to a smaller number of larger bets going on one side and a larger number of smaller bets going on the other side. That's my view anyway. I'm sure there are smart people who disagree.

    Oh, yes, and I make an assumption that the larger bets are made by the sharper players. Some may disagree with that assumption too.
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  27. 03-01-11 02:00 PM #27
    pizzaboyrick
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    73% on Detroit yet the line has moved to 4, Love Loyola!!!
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  28. 03-01-11 02:12 PM #28
    chunk
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    I would not base plays on line movement alone, but I must admit that I do pay attention to it more than I used to. I tend to believe that players are sharper nowadays and there are more of them. It would be interesting to see if anyone has accurately tracked so called reverse line movement for any significant period of time. I'm not sure where the accurate info on wagers placed would come from though.
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  29. 03-01-11 02:26 PM #29
    TPowell
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    still like Detroit, screw RLM
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  30. 03-01-11 02:31 PM #30
    beefcake
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    Good luck man
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  31. 03-01-11 02:37 PM #31
    HR Paperstacks
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    Quote Originally Posted by TPowell View Post
    still like Detroit, screw RLM
    Yeah RLM's have been killing people lately it seems.
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  32. 03-01-11 02:39 PM #32
    IAMWINNER
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    Quote Originally Posted by HR Paperstacks View Post
    Yeah RLM's have been killing people lately it seems.
    I bet St Louis vs St Bonaventure -3, line goes to -2.5 and everyone thinks its some RLM. St Bonnies covered with ease. RLM is total BS.
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  33. 03-01-11 02:39 PM #33
    Small Timer
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    Quote Originally Posted by TPowell View Post
    still like Detroit, screw RLM
    Glad you do, because I'm on Detroit. I just think that Wright State was a nice victory and they'll carry a bit of momentum into the conference tournament.
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  34. 03-01-11 02:45 PM #34
    TPowell
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    eventually RLM sucks the life out of the line value anyway. Love only laying 3.5 or 4 instead of 5
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  35. 03-01-11 03:07 PM #35
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    i haven't mentioned RLM once, just liked the value grabbing it @5 early, figured it would go down .5 not 1 pt.....

    i like that i got the +5 early.
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