Early bird, value play
5* 1H Bowling Green +3.5 (adding 3* making full 1H play)
4* Ov 132.5
I just got a funny feeling about this one. Miami Oh is coming off of 2 road losses, and returning home. Playing a revenge game, but this isn't the same BGSU team anymore. Since beating the Redhawks, BGSU has gone 5-6 and lost the last 4 games. But somethin inside me is telling me to fade the Redhawks 1H and take the points. And looking @ the #s it doesn't seem that bad. I guess @ somepoint we gotta take the coinflip, and i think this is one of those that will work towards our advantage. If BGSU wins 1H, then i will get better value with the Redhawks for the game. WHich of course i have them covering. But if i'm getting better odds why not? The Redhawks ARE a 2H team. Very often they trail in the 1H only to come storming back and kick some tail.
L3 Road games, BGSU leads @ the half by an avg. of 3.3ppg
L3 Home games, Mia OH trails @ the half by an avg. of 2.3ppg (vs better teams then BGSU IMO) but this is just to give u a rough idea of how they perform 1H's.
BoL lets take 1H BGSU AND Mia-OH for the game to the bank!
-vai
Last edited by Vaioice; 02-26-11 at 07:21 AM.
Reason: laid off on miami-Oh, really think will get better value @ half.
The Tigers know that the team they're facing today isn't the same team they beat handidly a lil over a month ago, even so i don't know if thats gonna make any difference. K-St has been playing with a different swagger, after 2 consecutive losses @IAST, and @Col the team has come together to pull off an impressive victory over the Jayhawks. and they pulled out a win @Nebraska, not an easy task. With their backs against the wall, they gotta go all out. Can't hold back if u have nothing to lose. Mizzou is just 2-5 on the road, while the Wildcats are 14-1 @home.
Tigers are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games as an underdog.
Tigers are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.
Wildcats are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 home games.
Wildcats are 9-2-1 ATS in their last 12 games as a home favorite of 0.5-6.5.
H2H Trends
Favorite is 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings.
Home team is 10-1 ATS in the last 11 meetings.
Tigers are 0-6 ATS in the last 6 meetings in Kansas St..
Over is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings in Kansas St..
Over is 8-3 in the last 11 meetings.
Even with those trends, i think the value is in the 1H. K-St will want to come out and send a message, that this isn't the same team, and they'd want to return the beating they got a month back. 1H K-St -2, take it to the bank!
Bad spot for the Eagles, catching the Cavs when they're playing best ball they have all season. With revenge on their mind, i see the Cavs come out ready to go. Not sure if BC has recooped from the beating @home by the Canes. Anyhow, don't see -1 as a problem for the Cavs. They are undervalued in this situation as bettors are so used to seeing them blown out.
think NE is a bit overvalued here cause they played GMason so close on the road, and tehy've already beaten NC-Wil in NC-Wil. NE always pulls away in 1H and somehow lets opp. back into game. Lets hope its the same today.
Huskies are 0-4-1 ATS in their last 5 games vs. a team with a losing S.U. record.
Huskies are 0-7-1 ATS in their last 8 games as a home favorite of 0.5-6.5.
Over is 7-0 in Huskies last 7 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400.
Over is 6-0 in Huskies last 6 games as a home favorite of 0.5-6.5.
Over is 5-0 in Huskies last 5 games following a S.U. loss.
Over is 3-0-1 in Seahawks last 4 games following a ATS loss.
Over is 4-0 in Seahawks last 4 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.
that first half ks cover is just unbelievable. i really didnt think we would hit it tbh watching the end of the half.
and the toss up at the last 5 seconds came with inchs
the way they it slipped away when Pullen was on the bench i thought we were done. This was a HUGE play for me. bettter lucky than good i'll take it anyday.
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i'll take it anyday.