1. 02-26-11 12:51 AM #1
    FR3SH like UgHH
    FR3SH like UgHH's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 04-27-10
    Posts: 1,464
    Betpoints: 1194

    Mizzou @ K-State(12pm Early Play, Write up & info inside)

    THE PLAY: K-State/Mizzou Over 149


    Let me start off and say, last time these 2 played, K-State had not had it together yet, were having issue's with chemistry and playing together as a team....since then they have been going on a winning streak, putting up way better #'s and shooting percentages....while we all know Mizzou can run the floor and score at will with their guard play....

    First off let's take a step back and look into what HISTORY tells us...

    Since 2004 the game K-State plays b4 going against Texas the OVER comes in 5 times to 1....(they know they need to get going, sort of like a warm-up b4 they play a sharp defensive team)

    in those games the results were:

    153o/u @col 87-81
    153o/u @mizz 88-72
    158o/u @bay 86-92
    151o/u mizz 80-73
    136o/u kan 65-74

    1 loss @ col 72-60 total was 141.5

    Also note:

    Since 2004 K-State has never had less than 10 overs during the regular season.

    Now as far as Mizzou, they have a little trend in them as well, that benefits us as they go through what i call their 'UNDER FAZE':

    Every year since 05 Mizz has a time during that they go thru 3 unders in a row, its never happend twice in one season.

    -This has already happened ONCE this year where they went thru a stretch of playing K-State, Iowa State and Texas.

    Good thing for us here is Mizzou is comming off of 2 str8 UNDERS....

    Note: Mizz on road is 5-2 for the over


    KEY POINT
    k State has to start off fast and put up more than 40 in 1h....usually it's a key # for their games to go over....yet it doesn't even have to be by them(although i like K-State to win it's a no bet) it could be Mizzou with the quick start....either way I still like the chances if they don't but it would make the play a hell of a lot easier....
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  2. 02-26-11 01:42 AM #2
    Vaioice
    Update your status
    Vaioice's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 06-04-10
    Posts: 780
    Betpoints: 24

    Other way around IMO. K-State will control the tempo. They don't wanna run n gun /w Mizzou.

    -vai
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  3. 02-26-11 02:11 AM #3
    BOBBYW
    BOBBYW's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 08-09-10
    Posts: 198
    Betpoints: 7198

    Thanx...
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  4. 02-26-11 02:11 AM #4
    Tower
    Tower's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 04-15-10
    Posts: 1,331
    Betpoints: 4571

    First I would like to state that I enjoy your write ups and have made money off your last couple threads and insights. BUT I really have no idea how you see value in using trends and stats from '04 and '05?!?!?! Those teams are completely different and have no relevance to this game. I could care less what the KSU team did in 2004, that was SEVEN years ago. Maybe I'm way off, but how in the hell would it matter how many TOs they had then??? I just don't see how anyone could argue that it shows any sort of trend for this game.....
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  5. 02-26-11 07:10 AM #5
    sweethook
    sweethook's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 11-21-07
    Posts: 12,657
    Betpoints: 10488

    very nice pen , gl
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  6. 02-26-11 07:14 AM #6
    ND25
    ND25's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 05-02-10
    Posts: 249
    Betpoints: 0

    I like this play. K State is much better offensively now than they were earlier this year.
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  7. 02-26-11 07:16 AM #7
    korbal29
    korbal29's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 10-25-09
    Posts: 751
    Betpoints: 65

    great write up and insight still think k state will run away with the game
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  8. 02-26-11 08:24 AM #8
    FR3SH like UgHH
    FR3SH like UgHH's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 04-27-10
    Posts: 1,464
    Betpoints: 1194

    looks like the public agree's w/ me right now as well...89% on the over...

    i expect the $ to even out by game-time tho...

    my play is already in and i am confident in it....

    however, good luck with wutever u play.
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  9. 02-26-11 08:33 AM #9
    FR3SH like UgHH
    FR3SH like UgHH's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 04-27-10
    Posts: 1,464
    Betpoints: 1194

    Quote Originally Posted by Tower View Post
    First I would like to state that I enjoy your write ups and have made money off your last couple threads and insights. BUT I really have no idea how you see value in using trends and stats from '04 and '05?!?!?! Those teams are completely different and have no relevance to this game. I could care less what the KSU team did in 2004, that was SEVEN years ago. Maybe I'm way off, but how in the hell would it matter how many TOs they had then??? I just don't see how anyone could argue that it shows any sort of trend for this game.....
    they aren't FROM 04-05, they are SINCE, hence why they are called TRENDS for a reason....
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  10. 02-26-11 08:43 AM #10
    ji03
    ji03's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 06-27-09
    Posts: 1,144
    Betpoints: 315

    like the play. Kansas State is picking it up offensively and the way Mizzou presses they can give up some easy ones as well.
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  11. 02-26-11 08:44 AM #11
    BiffTFinancial
    BiffTFinancial's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 01-29-09
    Posts: 22,670
    Betpoints: 5368

    Quote Originally Posted by Vaioice View Post
    Other way around IMO. K-State will control the tempo. They don't wanna run n gun /w Mizzou.

    -vai
    this. liking 1H under 70 to remove the potential for it to go over on dumb KSU fouls, always a possibility, even when they're leading.
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  12. 02-26-11 09:03 AM #12
    FR3SH like UgHH
    FR3SH like UgHH's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 04-27-10
    Posts: 1,464
    Betpoints: 1194

    total has now danced around a little, from comming out @ 149.5, going to 150, now back down to 149....

    with things evening out, let's see where this closes out....

    i locked it in @ O149.
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  13. 02-26-11 09:42 AM #13
    FR3SH like UgHH
    FR3SH like UgHH's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 04-27-10
    Posts: 1,464
    Betpoints: 1194

    good luck guys...

    be back for a 4 o clock game....

    yezzir!!

    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  14. 02-26-11 11:54 AM #14
    FR3SH like UgHH
    FR3SH like UgHH's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 04-27-10
    Posts: 1,464
    Betpoints: 1194

    K-state just over 40 1h w/ a 41-38 lead!

    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  15. 02-26-11 12:00 PM #15
    blakmajik42
    blakmajik42's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 11-06-10
    Posts: 24
    Betpoints: 12

    way to go Fresh. Got the half, hopefully the game now. Great analysis. History repeats itself people
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  16. 02-26-11 01:19 PM #16
    FR3SH like UgHH
    FR3SH like UgHH's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 04-27-10
    Posts: 1,464
    Betpoints: 1194

    the end of that game was UGLY STR8 UP...

    but a win is a win and i hope u guys tailed.

    i would hate to be on the wrong side of that 1.
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  17. 02-26-11 01:36 PM #17
    gamble
    gamble's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 06-30-10
    Posts: 1,087
    Betpoints: 3984

    good pick, barely got that one, knew my tigers wouldn't get the w today
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
Top
« Previous Thread | NCAA Basketball Betting | Next Thread »