[Vaioice]

when they won @Rider 65-57 Fairfield made 9/19 3's, (47.4%)
Season Avg. 29.4% from downtown
3P's L5 @ home 27.4% avg. 3.1/11.3 attempts.
L10 vs Rider 3P's 70/201, 34.8%

Rider's 3P% was 40.3 vs Fairfield that day 6-11 40%.
L5 Away 41.9% 7.6/18.1Attempts
L10 vs Fairfield, 75/178 beyond the arc for 42.8%
that day 5/11 FT's 45.5% season avg 62.7% 12.1/19.3
L5 Away 63.3% 12.1/19.1

What i'm trying to say is it is very unlikely Fairfield will have that kind of again. Yes they are great @ home. 11-1 vs Conference (6-0 SU 5-1 ATS@home) but Rider is a great road team, actually better on the road IMO. 8-4vs conference. (5-1 away SU 4-2 ATS away)
ATS 0-7@home 10-3away (4-2 during day)
6-1 ATS on the road against above .500 opp

Trends
H2H L3 seasons
Away team is 5-0 SU and ATS
Since 07, Rider is 3-1 SU and ATS @Fairfield
(3-0 SU and ATS as a dog @ fairfield)
Avg score for those 3 games 72.6 - 64 Rider
1H Avg. 32.3 - 28.3 Rider
L5 Seasons neither team has been able to win both matches.

OU Trends...
Over is 5-2 in the last 7 meetings
Over is 4-1 in Broncs last 5 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.
Over is 5-2 in Broncs last 7 games following a S.U. win.
Over is 4-1 in Stags last 5 games following a ATS win.
Over is 4-1 in Stags last 5 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600.
Under is 4-0 in Stags last 4 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.

Stats and trends aside, i think Rider matches up with Fairfield very well, i'd say on any given day. As a dog Rider is 7-3 ATS out scoring their opp. by avg 3.1 margin, and here we are getting +6.5. IMO the Oddsmaker are being a lil generous because of Fairfield's conference and home record. Their D is somethin to be reckoned with. That aside Rider is a great on the road, and have always played the Stags tough. I say this comes down to the wire, and the Broncos will prevail. so the +6.5 is a gift. Will also play the ML. History is on our side Over last 5 seasons neither team has been able to win both games.

5* Rider +6.5-110
2* 1H Rider +3.5 i believe Rider will be up @ half. might get a nice chance to hedge.
1* Rider ML +230

-vai

[xxdjstriderxx]

nice writeup, will get on this for a bit

[Vaioice]

adding 3* Marist +6
0.5* Marist ML +225

this one doesn't make sense to me. Niagara was -5 @ Marist. and yes they lost to Marist. but now they're only -6 @home? Canisius was -7.5 in Marist and lost...but last game they were -14.5 @home. A side from that i think Marist/Niagara/Manhattan are all pretty much on the same level. Marist has won 1 conf. game on the road...Niagara has won 1 conf. game @ home. Don't see this one getting outta hand. It helps that Niagara doesn't have a very good perimeter D cause Marist sux balls from downtown.

-vai

[mightyminnow]

nice info. thx for the play

[LockPickMaster]

Great write up, any thoughts on the other games today.

[HoulihansTX]

L5 Seasons neither team has been able to win both matches.

That is a key stat, and the fact that this is a revenge game helps Rider. Last time Rider was looking for revenge, they beat Iona on the road.

The difference in the first meeting was FT's, and Turnovers. Fairfield shot 11 more FT's, and made 9 more. Fairfield also commited 6 less TO's.

Fairfield pulled off similar stats against Iona. Fairfield is the better team, but trends point to Rider covering.

I like the write up, and it all makes sense. Just make sure you dont bet anything you arent ready to part with. GL

[Vaioice]

i've got Rider winning a nail bitter in the high 60's. will play
2* Over 130.5 Rider/Fairfield

leaning St. Pete's +2... made the mistake of not believing that they've turned around.
L3Y St. Pete's has won every match SU, thats 7 including the one earlier this year. and now they're gettting points. but then again.... maybe someone knows something, thats why Canisius is -2. If u think u think the oddsmakers are off on a line... ur not gonna be in the business for long. there's a reason its -2...but need to figure out why. revenge factor? they haven't won in 4 years...maybe the seniors would like to beat them @ least once. motivation can be a very powerful tool. Canisius 1H? maybe?

-vai

[stevenash]

Fairfield wins this, covering the 6.5 is another story.
Leaning underdog, but Fairfield is the beast of the conference, Needham is the best PG in the conference.

[HoulihansTX]

Great play, and great thought process B4 making the play.


The key to making money is to make smart bets over a long period of time.

Never be a coin flip capper.


Congrats