Also, at this point if you are tailing but haven't placed your bets, Austin Peay and Tenn St are no-plays. They have dropped out due to some line moves. Nevertheless, I already bet these and they are relatively small so no worries
Note: renamed the thread but this will usually be a moneyline thread with spread picks whenever I see good great value
I am chasing here. Cleve St is going to lose so I tacked my loss of 9.93 units onto KU ML -570 at 5dimes. I wagered to win 10 units (57 units at f*cking stake)! This is not a play using my usual methods. I see great value at -570 at 5dimes when the sharp books have it at -646 and -720. I'm a Jayhawk so this is just more of an incentive. Go Hawks!
9.93 units on Cleveland St (-130) to win 7.638
1.98 Units on Austin Peay (-170) to win 1.165
1.08 unit on Tennessee St (-120) to win .9 Murray State (-340) 1.2 units to win .353
KU -570 57 units to win 10
Things are looking really good so far with my two small plays. Looks like I will be up 1.1 units there. It'll come down to Kentucky not fiddle-facking around with Pearl and his boys. Tomoro morning I will post how many total units I am up/down since starting this thread
Plays are listed from greatest units at risk to least units at risk:
Drexel (-174) 9.57 units to win 5.5
Wisconsin (-290) 4.35 units to win 1.5
Charleston (-290) 2.9 units to win 1
Richmond (-240) 2.4 units to win 1
Texas (-700) 1.75 units to win .25
Memphis (-140) 1.4 units to win 1
Miami FL (-380) 1.28 units to win .34
Villanova (-235) 1.175 units to win .5
Marquette (-260) 1.04 units to win .4
Wofford (-290) 1.015 units to win .35
Here are some plays that I am tracking but not playing. After the input is processed in excel, the output has to be above a threshold that seems to be a good mark to differentiate plays and non plays. These lie below the threshold I set but are above 0%. Most of the games on a given day are below 0% so effectually, these have some value but it is minimal. I am basically tracking these to see at which point they are unreliable. The number beside the play is the strength factor, or confidence I have in my play (0 being the worst, and from there it goes up):
Michigan ML .91
Syracuse ML .25
Florida ML .02
To compare the strengths of these non-plays, look to my actual plays. The units at risk is around, but not exactly, the strength/confidence level. So Drexel has a rating of 9.57 (actually 9.53) whereas Michigan is .91. Thus, I would be far more confident in playing Drexel ML than the Michigan ML. This is not to say that I believe the Drexel ML cashes at a rate 10x more than the Michigan ML, but I that I believe if each game were played over 100000 times, a bet on drexel would be a far better bet each time than a bet on Michigan. If I had one bet, a Drexel ML bet would be a more effective way of using the money than a Michigan ML bet
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