[Ranx777]

I am just baffled that more people don't bring this up around March Madness....

I want to know if anyone has access to STATS from the last few years in the NCAA tournament including things like...

Against the Spread records for Underdogs vs favorites in the 1st round/ 2nd round/ etc.

ATS records for certain seeds.

ATS records of varying spread amounts, example, records for lines above +/- 10.

I just see these stats as vital, especially over the last several years with college basketball parity at an all-time high. And I cannot find them anywhere on the internet.

If anyone can post a link or lead me to this info, I will go ahead and shoot 100 points your way.

Thanks.

[egzacto]

Stat fox

[Straight Cash]

http://www.bracketscience.com/

[Straight Cash]

This is also a good resource:

http://rotoguru2.com/hoop/mad/seedwl.html

[asian.executive]

Fade the False Favorite. It will be in full effectiveness. I can feel a turnouaround.

[iceminers26]

Hey Ranx, good question, I already started doing my March Madness history research and here are a few facts that I have gathered, will come up with much more in the next month, but these are what I have for now.

All these facts are over the past 5 years:

1 vs 16

1s never lost SU but are only a sub par 9-9-1 ATS over the past 5 years

2 vs 15

No 2 has lost SU over last 5 years but again only 10-10 ATS over past 5 years.

3 vs 14

The 14 has pulled off 2 upsets in the past 5 years (NWST and Bucknell) but are only 11-9 ATS, not a great ATS edge IMO.

4 vs 13

13 has won 6 times SU over last 5 years but are only 9-11 ATS over past 5 years.

5 vs 12

12 seed has won 11 times SU over past 5 years (11-9 SU) and are 12-8 ATS last 5 years.

6 vs 11

11 has won 7 times SU last 5 years (7-13) but only an even 10-10 ATS

7 vs 10

10 has won 8 of 20 SU and are 8-12 ATS over last 5 years, key trend in this match up is the team that won always covered over past 5 years.

8 vs 9

9 is 12-8 SU over last 5 years and 12-7-1 ATS last 5 years.


I always like to back a mid major that can play defense at least time of the year and they are usually given a generous number. Off the top of my head I can remember Wofford being one of my larger plays of last years tourney when they were catching DDs against Whisky, I knew they could limit possessions and play some solid D so they not only had a great shot of covering but winning SU. A team I have my eye on right now that kind of fits this criteria is Witchita ST, they play solid D and I don't really see them getting blown out regardless who they draw. A lot of time left until tourney so only time will tell what teams are in good form.

If you ever want to discuss tourney, shoot me a PM, this is the event I can't wait for each year and always like talking shop.

[Straight Cash]

For before the time iceminers provided (2000-2006). Combination of the two should give you a good idea for the last 10 years.

Number 1 Seed vs. Number 16 Seed

A number 16 seed has never beaten a number 1 seed. That means that numbers 1 seeds are 88-0 straight up for the period 1985-2006. Number 1 seeds have a much better than average chance of making it to the Final Four. Over the same 22-year period, 1985-2006, 13 out of 22 tournament winners have been number one seeds. These numbers should erase any doubt that a number 1 seed, any number 1, has an excellent chance of winning the title.

2000-2006 Results:

• SU: 28-0
• ATS: 12-15-1
• Average Score: 81-56 (2255-1581/28)

Number 2 Seed vs. Number 15 Seed

Number 15 seeds have had a rough go of it in the NCAA Tournament with a 4-84 record against the number 2 seeds. We are still waiting for a number 15 seed to make the Final Four. Number 2 seeds have a very good chance of making the Final Four. During the period 1985-2006 three number 2 seeds have won the national championship.

2000-2006 Results:

• SU: 26-2
• ATS: 9-19-0
• Average Score: 74-60 (2070-1670/28)

Number 3 Seed vs. Number 14 Seed

Number 3 seeds don't win a lot of games against number 14 seeds, but it does happen. In fact, there used to be a yearly upset of a number 3 seed by a 14 seeds but the last several years have been devoid of any of these upsets. There has never been a number 14 seed in the Final Four. Number 3 seeds have a good chance of making it to the Final Four. Number 3 seeds even have a chance to win the championship as three teams have done it since 1985.

2000-2006 Results:

• SU: 26-2
• ATS: 13-14-1
• Average Score: 73-62 (2031-1723/28)

Number 4 Seed vs. Number 13 Seed

Number 13 seeds have not fared well against number 4 seeds over the years, going 18-70 since 1985. A number 13 seed has never made the Final Four. Number 4 seeds have a fair chance of making it to the Final Four. Only one number 4 seed has ever won the national championship.

2000-2006 Results:

• SU: 22-6
• ATS: 13-15-0
• Average Score: 76-68 (2131-1900/28)

Number 5 Seed vs. Number 12 Seed

Number 5 seeds have dominated number 12 seeds by a margin of 61-27. So far, no number 12 seeds have made the Final Four. Number 5 seeds have a so-so chance of making it to the Final Four. Over the period 1985-2006, no number 5 seeds have won the tournament, although two number 5 seeds have made the championship game. Oddly enough, number 12 seeds have a better record against number against number 5 seeds, than do number 11 seeds against number 6 seeds.

2000-2006 Results:

• SU: 17-11
• ATS: 12-15-1
• Average Score: 73-69 (2041-1939/28)

Number 6 Seed vs. Number 11 Seed

Number 6 seeds have dominated number 11 seeds by a margin of 61-27. Only two number 11 seed has made it to the Final Four. Number 6 seeds have a marginal chance of making it to the Final Four. Over the period 1985-2006, only one winner has been a number 6 seed.

2000-2006 Results:

• SU: 20-8
• ATS: 16-12-0
• Average Score: 69-66 (1935-1845/28)

Number 7 Seed vs. Number 10 Seed

Number 7 seeds hold a 53-35 advantage over number 10 seeds over the period 1985-2006. Neither a number 7 seed nor a number 10 seed has ever made the Final Four.

2000-2006 Results:

• SU: 17-11
• ATS: 17-11-0
• Average Score: 70-66 (1948-1844/28)

Number 8 Seed vs. Number 9 Seed

Believe it or not ? actually it's not that hard to believe - number 9 seeds have the advantage, 47-41, against the number 8 seeds. Despite their advantage over the number 8 seeds, a number 9 seed is yet to make it to a Final Four. Number 8 seeds have a slim chance of making it to a Final Four. The only number 8 seed to every win the NCAA Tournament was the 1985 Villanova Wildcats.

2000-2006 Results:

• SU: 15-13
• ATS: 14-13-1
• Average Score: 72-70 (2011-1972/28)

[iceminers26]

good info SC, thanks for posting

[Straight Cash]

good info SC, thanks for posting

NP, your info was great as well. Combination of the two should provide a pretty good snapshot. I cant wait for the tourney, it's always a lot of fun!

[NinjaShoes]

its the most wonderful time of the year!! or wait is that Christmas? no, no, no its March. lol

[Ranx777]

Wow wow, great info guys. I dont know who to give the points to, even thought u guys probably dont care about that.

Also though, I think a HUGE thing is the ATS results of lines that were closer rather than larger. Example: In all first round games over the last 5 years where the spread was +/- 10, what are the records of the dogs vs the favs, etc?

I dont know if this deep of info exists, but I would love to see it. I travel to Vegas each year for the tournament. I was hot in 2008, RED HOT in 2009, and ICE F'ing COLD in 2010. Thanks for the incredible info men, lets keep digging though.