Alright, my own picks have been well .. atrocious, but I have been keeping track of the Pomeroy Rankings already. For anyone not familiar, check 'em out you.
www.kenpom.com
Guy basically factors in all the important things in the game, including tempo, efficiency and several other things. Certainly there is a small sample size so far, but I've noticed a few things that I want to track with this thread instead of making my own stupid plays. Here's what I have noticed:
When his scoreline predicts the FAVORITE will win by more than 2-2.5 points more than the actual line, taking the FAVORITE is advisable.
When his scoreline predicts the UNDERDOG to lose by 2-2.5 points less than the line, taking the UNDERDOG is advisable.
This certainly will not work in all games, but I am going to try to pick out the ones that have the biggest margins of difference to track and see how it goes. Will start with some of the night games tonight.
Totals so far, it is too early to tell what his predictions will do. Do what you will with this info. Hopefully it helps make some profits somehow. What I will include below is the actual line and in parenthesis, the KenPom prediction.
11.19.10
1. KENTUCKY -5.5 [KENPOM -8]
2. PENN STATE -9 [KENPOM -12]