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Originally Posted by impper
So, do either of you have a lower edge limit/threshold before you'll make a bet? For instance, if the calculator says you have an edge of 0.50% or 0.75% or something, do you still take those?
Just trying to figure out where I went wrong here. I came up with the exact same plays and percentages as cheme did in NBA, so I assume that I'm doing it right.
I had a bad day in cbb as well chili...I had Ohio state, Georgia, butler, Bradley, Iowa, san Diego state, George Washington, Arkansas state, Tennessee, depaul, and Wyoming. Went 5-7 and lost my larger plays. I think I'm doin it right as well...I hope so at least...did you guys get any of the same games as me? And in nba I had the nuggets as my play.
Also, do you guys recalculate your unit each day? Each week? Cuz doesn't it take a higher winning % if we keep changing units each day?
Finally, what ive been doing is rounding my edge to the closest unit size...so if my edge is 2.59% then I round it to 3 units RISK as my play...and I need at least a .5% edge to make it a 1 unit RISK play...I think RISKING a certain number of units instead of playing TO WIN a certain amount would avoid drastic swings I'm the bankroll like what happened yesterday for me and chili...
What do you guys think? Your help is always appreciated!
I had a bad day in cbb as well chili...I had Ohio state, Georgia, butler, Bradley, Iowa, san Diego state, George Washington, Arkansas state, Tennessee, depaul, and Wyoming. Went 5-7 and lost my larger plays. I think I'm doin it right as well...I hope so at least...did you guys get any of the same games as me? And in nba I had the nuggets as my play.
Also, do you guys recalculate your unit each day? Each week? Cuz doesn't it take a higher winning % if we keep changing units each day?
Finally, what ive been doing is rounding my edge to the closest unit size...so if my edge is 2.59% then I round it to 3 units RISK as my play...and I need at least a .5% edge to make it a 1 unit RISK play...I think RISKING a certain number of units instead of playing TO WIN a certain amount would avoid drastic swings I'm the bankroll like what happened yesterday for me and chili...
What do you guys think? Your help is always appreciated!
Dude, I got the same plays as you did! So either we're both doing something incredibly wrong (which I don't think, because I got the exact same NBA plays that cheme listed), or the other 2 guys are doing something a little different than we are.
I don't recalculate my unit size each day, because my local pays me out my balance each week, which resets my line of credit. I don't want to get in over my head, so I keep the same unit size for the entire week.
Thanks for the reply Chili! Are you RISKING 1-2% per play or playing TO WIN 1-2% per play?? Well I am glad I am doing it right then Chili...cuz I'm pretty sure you know what you are doing! So what did we do different than the other guys you think?
I play to win the edge percentage of each play.
I have no idea what we did different; I guess they'll have to chime in with some info. I did the numbers about an hour before the games started for the night. I used pinnacle/bodogs lines from sbrodds. I got the exact same percentages and picks for the NBA as what cheme posted. I got the same college basketball picks as you did, so I just don't know where we went wrong. Normally, I'd shake it off as just a losing day (because they do happen), but when the 2 other guys doing their own calculations both said that they played around 8 CBB games that the calculator said to play, then that one makes me doubt myself, so I dunno.
Maybe they have a certain threshold of games that they play? Maybe not playing any games that have an edge under 1%? I have no idea
Alright sounds good chili...hopefully they'll chime in here with what they did...
at .5% i'll make a small bet but not push it. i don't see any reason not to make the bet; even a .25% bet in your favor is profitable in the long run
i calculated about 4-5 hours before the games and especially took long looks at plays where my book had a more favorable line than pinnacle's... i'm not sure if this is "good" or not since the line could move against me, but if pinnacle is favoring one side then it usually moves in that direction as game-time approaches. this screwed me hard on Pacific, as I made a bet at +7 where it looked good, and later on in the night the line moved to +9. most of the other games i had a 1.5 or 2 point advantage to the closing line, in addition to my 3 purchased points
also keep in mind that this early in the season the books don't have very much good info on college basketball. the lines are almost always shots in the dark, though of course more accurate than the guy on the street will do
Wednesday
11/17/10
Loyola Marymount +5.5 -105 5
Marist +12 -105 5
Mississippi -5.5 -105 5
GL
I only bet 1% and higher.
I'm going to stick to RAS plays for now until they play some games and the lines get a little sharper. The point-buying doesn't seem to be working as well as NBA right now.
You will usually find different plays depending on what book your local uses (or you play at), also the time of day you make the plays makes some games playable but not others.
As far as unit sizes I recalculate my unit size every day, that makes me press my bet when I'm winning and fall back a little when I have been losing without overdoing it. Even if your local pays you weekly you should put the money aside and recalculate your unit size, if you happen to have a losing week then use your previous winnings to pay him but flatbetting and not increasing your unit size as your bankroll grows just costs you money in the long run.
Sounds good thanks Cheme! Alright, I guess I will stick with RAS plays too for now for NCAAB....maybe we should add a filter to NCAAF, NFL, NBA, and NCAAB to wait till 2 weeks into the season?? What do you think? Give some time for the lines to sharpen up????
Yeah, I'm gonna try hammering RAS and will check the point buying later on in the season.
Results:
2-1-0 +4.75 units
YTD
39-26-0 +14.08 units
I won every game today using point buying and where I could get a better line than what pinny was offering. Really happy with how it worked out today
Looks like you are doing well, those "free" points you get help you out a lot.
Yep, those free points are huge. really nice having a line 4.5 or even 5 points better than the closing line. calc maybe isnt too accurate there but sometimes i get a 8-10% edge lol
how many games did u have buying points with the system..?
You got a local Impper? I am wondering too which games you got last night and also if you take and AVG of the lines?? I went 1-4 last nite in NBA...I'm down over $200 on $10 units the last couple of days...but I am pretty sure I'm doin it right! HA
I followed cheme's plays for NBA. The CBB games that I picked went 7-4 last night. Today, I'm going to do what impper mentioned in an earlier post, and run the plays twice (once with pinnacle, and once with matchbook), and see if both books agree on the plays. I noticed that last night, with some of the losses that I had in CBB, pinnacle and matchbook were on different sides of the plays, so that would've made the bet a no-play.
I'm not going to bet CBB today (besides what cheme posts), but I am tracking it. So far, I have pinny and matchbook agreeing on Davidson +17, starting in about 30 minutes.
Thanks Chili...I think I'm gonna do that too...compare Pinny AND Matchy...that sounds good to me...so are you going to track your picks for awhile Chili and just follow Cheme?? Can we compare plays each day to make sure I'm doin' it right? Thanks Chili and Cheme..
Yah, exactly. I'm going to play cheme's plays, and track my own. And yah, I'll post which plays I come up with. It'd be cool if impper would do the same, so that we can all get on the same page.
Yea that'd be great impper if you could post your plays too...
So far for the early games, I don't have an edge with Davidson like you Chili cuz I get -170 lines...
BUT I do have value on these two plays:
New Mexico State +13.5 for 2% Edge (This is a night game but I saw that Matchbook was leaning heavily toward Coastal Carolina and I could still get them at -110 at RebateWager, so I thought I'd hop on it now)
Coastal Carolina +18.5 for 3% Edge
I am running both PInny and Matchy numbers and they both need to have at least a 1% edge on the same play for it to be a play for me...
Oh and Chili...are you going to play Cheme's selections even if you do not show an edge? Thanks bro...just wanna follow what you guys are doing and track my plays as well...thanks bro
I don't have a play yet on Coastal Carolina, because Pinnacle hasn't listed a line for it yet. And yes, I'm playing cheme's selections straight up. We're getting the same juice and lines, so why not?
True that chili....so you are playing his selections but buying the 3 points still?? Thanks...I think I will do the same too even with -170 lines I should still have some value...just not as much as you!
You'd still be up way ahead by simply tailing his plays (though you wouldn't have had as many units as cheme does, because you're paying -170 vs -165.
Thursday
11/18/10
George Mason -3.5 -105 5
Western Kentucky +4 -105 5
GL
I work in the day from about now until shortly before the games start, so sometimes I won't be able to post what I get here. I'll try my best though.
jolm, if the line at pinny and match are equal to the one at your book, it seems to be better to wait until game-time to do the calculations. that way the numbers you get seem more reliable, at least so far ime for the week i've been using the calculator. early in the day like this it seems better to look for line discrepancies
the exception to that is if pinny is giving a big advantage to one side of the bet. usually the line moves in your favor if that's the case, so jump on it
i am waiting for the lines to "develop" here. nonetheless good luck to you guys!
YTD
39-26-0 +14.08 units
wow wow wow
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