[BigOrangeTitans]

Throw the stats out of the window folks as we have gotten a championship game with BOTH teams deserving to be there, and the line (currently -1 Memphis, though it is floating around as pk em in some) definitely reflects that.


Now, my record in games of national interest is very good, and most of you know this from the trap games I post.

This is how i see this one. I posted in this thread before the line came out the EXACT same line that opened in some books.
That is here, and you can also see how i predicted the line movement: http://www.sportsbookreview.com/forum/players-ta...er-kansas.html

My angle is, the line came out at KU -1 (1.5 at some places) and took only minutes to plumet to Memphis -1. The angle I used to set the line is the one I am using in this game, and considering I was dead on, i'm very confident.

That angle is: Memphis beat UCLA handily. Never was this game really in question. They completely dominated the likes of love and collison. KU beat UNC handily, and even though they blew the HUGE lead for a moment, they won very easily.

Given that Kansas/UNC/UCLA are very traditional programs, the general consensus is they are in a league of there own. UNC getting beat by 20 after completely destroying their bracket, is a shock for most. Not me, UNC hasnt been on the road in a month basically. They, in my opinion, had the easiest road here. Thats why they looked so confused to start the game, and couldnt get adjusted. They shot horribly from the field, while KU couldnt miss. KU is a good team, but this game goes either way if it were played 10 times in a row.

Memphis on the other hand has had a fatal flaw...FT shooting. That was the ONE thing holding them back from being a hands down favorite to win the whole thing. Well, I dont think thats an issue anymore. They are shooting over 70% from the FT line in the NCAA tournament.

So the one thing you can really use here is related opponents. That being TEXAS. In a virtual road game, Memphis beat texas badly in the state of texas. Scored at will, and completely dominated. KU split with them this year, losing @ Texas by a couple and winning by 10 in a much closer big 12 title game than the 10 points shows.

Thats the only edge I needed. Memphis has ONE loss by a couple points to a top 10 opponent(top RPI) in a rivalry game. Say what you want about their conference, but look at their OOC schedule(Gtown, USC, Tennessee, etc).

I see this line floating around a pk em with most of the action on KU due to the blowout win.

Early play: Memphis +1 -109 Matchbook

[imgv94]

I think it's going to be a tough game that comes down to the wire.. That one point might come in handy brother.. Definitely think it's a game to get as many points as you can.

[BigOrangeTitans]

I think it's going to be a tough game that comes down to the wire.. That one point might come in handy brother.. Definitely think it's a game to get as many points as you can.

I'm not so sure. I think KU will find that they cant contain CDR/Rose. Do you not remember the two texas games? Augestin and company(not even close to as good as Memphis backcourt) completely ripped KU to shreds. They just didnt have the interior D to stop Kahn and company. See how well those texas guards did against memphis?

I would have taken Memphis all the way up to -3.

[imgv94]

Kansas will have trouble with Memphis guards and that will probably be the difference in this game.

Kansas is so good defensively especially in transistion, I think thats going to keep it close.

[BigOrangeTitans]

Kansas will have trouble with Memphis guards and that will probably be the difference in this game.

Kansas is so good defensively especially in transistion, I think thats going to keep it close.

The way augestin got out in transition I wouldnt be surprised to see Rose running down the backs of KU and really gettin those guards in trouble. Douglas-Roberts is the best player on the floor tomorrow(too big for college guards to keep up with), with Rose being the second best(more potential than CDR though).

KU has no go to guy when they get in a slump(which, if you watch the davidson replay, you can see was exposed).

For what its worth, if the o/u goes up to 147ish, I will max play the under.

[chipski]

I want to let you know that a team playing badily (simply missing wide open shots like Ucla was doing against Memp) has nothing to do with the next game . Kansas may not be missing left and right like Ucla was . Kansas may shoot 60% . Who is the star here ? Anyone from Kansas could be like Mike in this one game , the biggest stage .
Comparing what teams did thus far in the tourney I believe to be worthless . Is a tossup any way you break it down .
I would have to be on the other side it appears as I like Kansas .

note : you are sayin that Memp has solved their free throw issues , that is like saying when a guy go 4 - 4 saturday that he wont have strikeout issues in the next game . lol
GL , may the fix not be in here for all our sakes , clean game .

[babaoriley]

As I posted on the players talk thread (same thread where BOT discusses the line movement)...

Memphis' overall resume (looking back now) is just superb. Kansas' overall resume (while underrated because of Davidson) is lackluster in my opinion.
Again, Memphis against Tourney teams:
OKlahoma (Neutral) -W by 10
UCONN (Neutral)- W by 11
USC (Neutral)- W by 4 (a game in which they shot 39% from the stripe)
G-Town- W by 14
Arizona- W by 13
Siena- W by 44 (went 11-32 from the line)
Gonzaga- W by 13 (went 19-32-59% from the line)

Lost to Tennessee by 4 (8-17)

Miss St.- W by 3 (15-32)
Mich St.- W by 18 (26-35 74%- IT CLICKS?)
Texas- W by 18 in Houston (30-36 83%)
UCLA- W by 15 (20-23 87%)

Quite simply, if Memphis knocks down FT's as they have been in these last 3 games, I think Kansas has to play waaay above their heads to win. Not saying it won't/can't happen, but I jumped on Memphis for 4* at pk. If they miss their FT's, who knows but I think Memphis has it clicking now and I think they win on Monday.

Now, to add to this for chipski's sake:
This is a mostly veteran team whose coach has been saying all along that the FT shooting thing had more to do with the mental aspect than with the physical aspect. They have been playing loose since the Miss. St. game and have so much confidence going right now that it's likely that their FT shooting woes have subsided. Confidence, swagger, motivation to set the record at 39 wins... And Memphis is now 76-94 (81%) from the line over the last 3 games. That's not just a small sign of improvement, it's a sign that things have turned around. That's not to say they couldn't have a rough game from the line (or any other facet of the game) but it tells me that pk is value for Memphis, especially considering that the line would be similar if we had a KU-MU final, even if Memphis had shot, say 65% from the field instead of 80%.

[BigOrangeTitans]

Memphis killed the horns in a virtual home game, and KU struggled both times they played them.

Memphis lost ONE game all year

The two BEST players on the court both wear memphis jerseys.

You cant find an edge?

[chipski]

If we talk about strength of teams I know ucla is nothing special , watched them all year . If we talk about how Memp matches up with Kan player for player then there is no edge .
There are names you have heard more about from Memp but no edge really .
Looking at the game from a reality real time view , Kansas speed could be the difference . Everyone I have talked too likes Memp so that tells me alot .
If all those people had watched Kansas and Memp all year long then they would not say I like Memp .
Memp trampling over Cusa is a joke and a disgrace , nothing special really . The big games they won against GTown , Usc , and UConn are surely nothing special either .

Everyone likes Memphis here just like they like Elvis .
Gl either way .

Who gets in foul trouble is obviously something we can't predict which is huge ....

[BigOrangeTitans]

Kansas is faster than Memphis?!?!?

Wow, you definitely know nothing about this game.

What about douglas-roberts, whose going to guard him? Rush? If he does then who's guarding Rose?!

KU will be in foul trouble... with their guards, you can book that.

[chipski]

thats twice you have talked out the side of your neck in reference to my truths I was gracious enough to share . everyone here with me now says you are probably some little snot nosed kid . lmao

if kan wins then you can go look in the mirror and talk yourself up and pretend you knew what you were talking about . ignore this thread and move on to the next 10 unit game .

if memp wins then you can continue to tell people you dont know how they know nothing about basketball .

if you want to fade the public you would be taking kansas , the winner .

as always , if Memp loses , then you will bow out gracefully with no true feedback , if you are right then look out ! sad

[imgv94]

Kansas is faster than Memphis?!?!?

Wow, you definitely know nothing about this game.

What about douglas-roberts, whose going to guard him? Rush? If he does then who's guarding Rose?!

KU will be in foul trouble... with their guards, you can book that.

dude why you so arrogant lately.. Kansas is just as quick as Memphis, UNC is the fastest team in basketball and Kansas looked faster didn't they?

[BigOrangeTitans]

dude why you so arrogant lately.. Kansas is just as quick as Memphis, UNC is the fastest team in basketball and Kansas looked faster didn't they?

Memphis team speed puts KU in the dust, and you will see that, maybe I'm wrong but I think they're the best team in the game hands down.

"everyone here with me now says you are probably some little snot nosed kid" - this may be why it became a bit personal IMGV, or maybe this...

"if you want to fade the public you would be taking kansas , the winner" - Uh, if anyone took the time to look at samples provided in the think tank, you would see that its not as simple as "fading the public". Lots of variables and KU doesnt fit it pal.

Not trying to be an ass IMGV, but I get ridiculed on a daily basis for posting my analysis and reasonings even though I've proven with countless statistics, records, data that it works.

I post why UNC is a trap,and everyone says "then fading the public means your 1-1, as memphis won so you suck." Well, if you check my thread out, you'll see i had memphis pretty large...

So yeah, I may be an arrogant ass, but I'm tired of taking bullshit for posting 55%+ winners.

Say what you want chip, i dont see you out here with your posted plays and record. You can see my 10 unit plays hit at a great margin, guess that doesnt matter to you though heh?

[chipski]

I never questioned you as a capper or if you eat meat or are afraid of heights . I was sharing what I believe to be true just like you share . Because a game looks like a trap , smells like a trap , and 90% of people that watch sports every day tell me it is a trap . This does not mean the results will always show it was indeed a trap .
The thing about it is this , when the results do go in favor of your fade the public or trap talk , then we get alot of hoopla and you always remember when it goes your way with your theory/theorys .
The times it does not result in our theory we kindly forget about that . We dont talk about it .

THERE IS NO SUCH THING AS A TRAP or a TRUE FADE THE PUBLIC DEFINITE , OR BECAUSE WISE GUYS BET 500 GRAND ON MEMP OR THE PATS OR THE ROCKIES ,THE BULLS WITH JORDAN THERE YA GO , OR THE FRIGGIN HURRICANES , (unless the game is dirty) .
If the fav or underdog comes through and you are on the right side it was because they got the breaks , they played better , executed better , they had better coaching for that one game , the refs could have helped , hell we dont know , it happens on the court , on the field . It does not happen in who bets on who , how the line moves , or any other angle you can try and conceive or develop .

You spoke of throwing everything out the window for the championship game , well that is exactly the case in the majority of every sporting event ever played .
Dont get me wrong , i love strategy and angles but if we really are true to ourselves we know that we can throw all of our angles and strategy out the window and still have a 50?50 chance of being RIGHT OR WRONG .

Because a game falls our way we try and say see I told you this and that .... get real , we can flip a coin for a high % of games and do better than we would have by studying all day . just the truth , I mean no offense , what would that get me .
Strategy and angles carry weight but superstar perfomances in college b-ball override all of our greatest angles . In all sports this is a truth . Do i like it that this is true ? No , I wish it was more simple and some guy I never factored in doesnt come in and change the game (swing!) . Remember Boooooby for the Cavs in the playoffs against the Pistons last year ?
I bet you had the Cavs to knock off the Pistons , if so I am very very impressed . Anyway , keep doing what you do , I was just sharing what I believe to be true .

ADD : lets not forget Florida last year (seemed to easy , fav , public all over it just like this year with Memp) . There were some great cappers on Ohio St . I remember a capper ridiculing everyone who was on Ohio St , he had the nerve to talk shit after the game to other great cappers saying they had no business being handicappers since they took Ohio St (the dog . ) It was on a pro capper site on the internet .
ONLY AFTER WE SEE THE FINAL SCORE AND I THINK THATS BS .

[chipski]

I was going to go large on a 2 team parlay with Unc and Memp . I choose not to because it looked to ez and because the public was on both of the favs , soooo how in the hell should I realistically expect both of the fav and public loving games to both fall right ? I could post that bs all over creation and it would be just that . The feeling / thinking / strategy /gut / slash whatever HAPPENED TO BE RIGHT . No science my man . Experience and it happened to pan out that way , but it could have just as easily of been a bad pass . get it right .

[BigOrangeTitans]

Im not saying that anything is a guarantee. I never have more than 65% edge in any game.... But a 65% edge is enough to win 2 outta 3, and thats what makes the money. I only point out "traps" because people get so sold a line that they bet 100% of their bankroll on it then lose. I was a bit hyped yesterday over a huge day, and was probably being a dick. I just feel strongly for my angles/strategies and dont like when being told they dont work, because I thought i had proved they dont work everytime, but they dowork more than 50% andthats all ya need to make money.

Good luck chipski, if you got Kansas +2, we both win

[NardVa]

Kansas came out and ran UNC off the court. I don't think Kansas will play fast against Memphis. I think Kansas may actually try and slow this game down and go big and grind it out with their big men. Memphis only has one big man that holds weight (Dorsey) in the paint whereas Kansas has 3 (Jackson, Kaun, Aldrich). Will it give Kansas a win? I don't know but it's possible.

[chipski]

Feel ya , thanks . I believe you can average going 2 - 1 all day , no doubt .

I am still hearing how the announcer was saying how the game would be in the 80s because it looked like that early on in the first 5 minutes with the pace . Well , he was wrong . I also remember the announcer saying the game was over in the 1st half ,, come on ? Serious ?
He is a professional and almost went 0 - 2 after the game had come on . Imagine how he would have done in his analysis before the tip .
The game finished under the total , no 80s and Unc could have comeback and stole one ...

Nard , I think they will come out fast since it worked last game and make adjustements all throughout the game depending on the score and whats working .

[EaglesPhan36]

I'm sticking to my pick the whole way through ... Kansas ML. I hope this game FINALLY gives us the last possession type of game that we've supposedly been promised since the Elite 8 where the majority of the games have been anything but close.

The key for KU is stopping Rose. If they check him from getting penetration and being able to drive & dish, they've got a good shot to win. KU's guards might be the best defenders on the D1 level. They've got more size than any guards that Memphis has seen in the tourney thus far. I think Robinson is probably going to draw Rose for the most part because strength-wise, they are much closer than Chalmers would be against Rose who would be able to power him in the post. I see Rush drawing CDR and that should be a great match-up to watch. I think the bigs for both teams cancel each other out.

The one "angle" I just read about that I didn't know of ... last 10 times a favorite has been -5 or less in championship games, they've won straight up & covered the spread.

[RescueMe]

It's only two teams play so at the end of the day half of us will win or lose. When line around 1 point whatever u picked is a right choice. Without doing any capping gymnastic all us saw how these teams played for the last couple of weeks. Very good athletes all around, I just don't see who is an X-man ball carrier for KS opposite to Rose (Mem). For me this game is toss up. KS has more bigs to throw in the paint and Mem has better PG. I doubt KS will be able to start the same way they did last time, so it will be grinding. I'll give edge to Tigers, the should be fresh on the other hand no way to predict if somebody "dark horse" decided to show up.
All said GL to everyone at the end somebody has to lose, I just don't think after the game someone will has a face to say I told u so! If u want to do it do it now!

[BigOrangeTitans]

I'm sticking to my pick the whole way through ... Kansas ML. I hope this game FINALLY gives us the last possession type of game that we've supposedly been promised since the Elite 8 where the majority of the games have been anything but close.

The key for KU is stopping Rose. If they check him from getting penetration and being able to drive & dish, they've got a good shot to win. KU's guards might be the best defenders on the D1 level. They've got more size than any guards that Memphis has seen in the tourney thus far. I think Robinson is probably going to draw Rose for the most part because strength-wise, they are much closer than Chalmers would be against Rose who would be able to power him in the post. I see Rush drawing CDR and that should be a great match-up to watch. I think the bigs for both teams cancel each other out.

The one "angle" I just read about that I didn't know of ... last 10 times a favorite has been -5 or less in championship games, they've won straight up & covered the spread.

I do not agree with the analysis that KU can successfully guard CDR/Rose. They couldnt even contain Augestin or Eaton this year, and had foul trouble throughout the whole game. They lost both of those. Check out my write-up for the contest and you can see the foul problems with your guards.

[BrUno0]

I'm not sure if this makes any sense, but i can't really see a bad play in this game (on sides), with the current line as -1 most places, But I do lean to memphis in this game, but i think i'm going to hold off till the last few minutes and line shop or go with a trend play to decide on this one. (if possible)

[BigOrangeTitans]

I'm not sure if this makes any sense, but i can't really see a bad play in this game (on sides), with the current line as -1 most places, But I do lean to memphis in this game, but i think i'm going to hold off till the last few minutes and line shop or go with a trend play to decide on this one. (if possible)

I see the memphis line staying -1 or a pkem, no matter how much action KU gets tomorrow.

Heres a trend for ya, thanks to EP.
last 10 times a favorite has been -5 or less in championship games, they've won straight up & covered the spread

[BrUno0]

I see the memphis line staying -1 or a pkem, no matter how much action KU gets tomorrow.

Heres a trend for ya, thanks to EP.
last 10 times a favorite has been -5 or less in championship games, they've won straight up & covered the spread

Thank you!

I guess memphis it will be. Time will tell

[EaglesPhan36]

I do not agree with the analysis that KU can successfully guard CDR/Rose. They couldnt even contain Augestin or Eaton this year, and had foul trouble throughout the whole game. They lost both of those. Check out my write-up for the contest and you can see the foul problems with your guards.

I didn't really say I expected KU to successfully contain Rose or CDR ... I think the key is containing Rose's penetration. Make him beat you with jumpers. If he gets in the lane, it's tough to stop him from either making a shot or the right decision to get someone else a shot.

Holding Augustin to 7 of 18 and 1 of 13 shooting in those two games, I'll take that against Rose. Guess holding Ty Lawson in check in transition did nothing for you? Hand cuffing the hottest player in the tourney in Stephen Curry, also nothing? KU will make them work for every opportunity and that is my point here. Memphis may well continue to score with ease, but these KU defenders are the best they will have faced all season. Doesn't mean they won't torch them, but I'm interested to see what they can do.

[BigOrangeTitans]

Eaton had 18 free throws against them...
Augestin had almost 10 in both games.

Surround that with more talent/athleticism, and you got an angle. Nothing more or less

No guarantees here.

Lawson is the most overrated player in the history of UNC basketball, IMO.

[EaglesPhan36]

Do agree on Lawson ... he is fast as ****, but that's his best attribute. Not a great shooter. Slightly above average passer.

[babaoriley]

Eaton had 18 free throws against them...
Augestin had almost 10 in both games.

Surround that with more talent/athleticism, and you got an angle. Nothing more or less

No guarantees here.

Lawson is the most overrated player in the history of UNC basketball, IMO.

Somewhere, Joe Forte is breathing a sigh of relief.

[tab]

Kansas will get into foul trouble and they do not have a deep bench like Memphis does. Memphis wins this game by at least 10 points.

[TheAnswer03]

Everyones talking about guard play where Memphis has the slight edge. Although Rush is a beast. Everyone seems to be forgetting the biggest edge

Darrell Arthur > Joey Dorsey..

I see Arthur having a monster game.

[BigOrangeTitans]

Kansas will get into foul trouble and they do not have a deep bench like Memphis does. Memphis wins this game by at least 10 points.

Exactly what my write up says in the contest thread on the main page.

Some phenomenal numbers i dug up for your guys in there, you should really check it out.

[jtnguyen79]

so far best line i see is -1.5 Memphis...already played -2 and still lots of time for it to change

[Tigers1230]

The trouble I see is the inside for Memphis. Like someone said before Kansas has a lot of depth down low and they know it. All they are going to do tonight is dish it inside and try to get Memphis' big guys in foul trouble.

[BigOrangeTitans]

The trouble I see is the inside for Memphis. Like someone said before Kansas has a lot of depth down low and they know it. All they are going to do tonight is dish it inside and try to get Memphis' big guys in foul trouble.

remember davidson?
Who did they have in the post? Nowhere near the talent of the tigers.

I think this is a very non factor.

[Tigers1230]

All I remember was Kansas starting out against UNC scoring at will down low. That opened everything else up. I do however think they will get tired quick. We are just going to have to see who will ultimately be shooting better.