Originally Posted by
Wheell
The Big East had an expected value of 11.5 wins in the tournament. Currently they have 10. Louisville is a slight favorite over Tennessee (which I think is accurate), West Virginia is a slight favorite over Xavier (I would have made Xavier a tiny favorite), and Villanova is expected to get crushed by Kansas (I'm laying the points). Overall the Big East is basically playing about average relative to the overall expectations.
The Big 10 and Big 12 are both playing above expectations (EV for the Big 10 was 4.5 wins, current EV is 6.5 wins, EV for the Big 12 was 8.5 wins, current EV is 10 wins).
The ACC had an expected value of 8.5 wins, their current EV is 6 wins. It is UNC or bust, and I am taking the points with Washington St.
As for the Pac 10, 2 teams went out in the first round, 3 teams remain. Wash St. is a dog against UNC, Stanford is a tiny dog against Texas (pretty much pick'em, which is surprising given location), and UCLA is a solid favorite over Western Kentucky. I didn't run the pre-tournament numbers on the Pac 10 for total wins but I do know the conference odds for winning the tournament have risen dramatically.
I didn't run any numbers on the SEC, but right now Tennessee is a dog against Louisville so the SEC probably doesn't see the elite 8.
Overall I would have to say the ACC and SEC are down right now, with the other majors doing just fine.