Throw the statistics out the window - G. Mason and VCU are so far above the rest of the pack in the Colonial. That's not to say it's a bad play, as UNCW is the only side I'd even consider here. Both are experienced teams, but Mason's playing out of their mind of late. The one angle I like here for UNCW is Mason could potentially be looking forward to Tuesday's showdown with VCU. UNCW's talented enough to hang here, but their lack of discipline leads me to believe GMU pulls away late, although 7's a nice cushion to have.
The last time I bet against GMU (last weekend),
Dre Smith went 10/10 from three. Tough to cap a guy hitting 10 consecutive from deep.
Good luck.