[BuddyBear]

I hate rooting for overs but I think we might have an over in the "marquee" ESPN game tonight beteween Kentucky/Florida.

Generally speaking, both these teams have played to the over more than to the under. Combined they are 12-9 overs to unders. Florida has just been lighting it up really all year long. At home, they are averging 84.4 while Kentucky is averging 65.0 in thier games away from Rupp Arena.

Even though those ppg numbers for Florida are largely inflated due to the weak competition they played earlier in the year, the Gators have shown strong scoring capability at home only scoring less than 71 pts in 2 of thier 13 home games. They don't push the ball up-tempo much like Memphis, average at best are the Gators, but where Florida really excels is in their offensive efficiency ranking 2nd in the nation in that category. Basically, they execute when they have the ball. They are a decent FT shooting team and 3pt shooting team.

When I examined the totals of quality competition that KY has played, KY has played in several up of these up-tempo style games. UAB (155 pts comibined), Louisville (164), Vanderbilt (152), North Carolina (163), and Miss State (133).

Even though the KY/MSU game didn't go over, it should be noated that Miss State is one of the better defensive teams in the country. UAB (29), Louisville (13), UNC (38), and Miss State (12) are all better teams defensively than Florida is (49) and the defensive efficiency score is largely coming from weak competition. When adjusted is nearly double at 83 out of 341. And of course, none of those teams are as efficient offensively as Florida.

If you look at the series history between these two teams, you have total outputs of: 175, 143, 125, & 157. Three of those games saw Florida shoot, 57.7%, 51.7%, and 64%. It's clear to me that Donovan knows how to attack this UK defense, but of course those were Tubby Smith teams and many of the players have changed in this series.

When you look at the quality competition that UK has played, you see they give up points: North Carolina (86), UAB (79), Louisville (89), Vanderbilt (73), and Miss State (69).

Considering this opened up at 144.5, I think we may have some value between these two "over teams"

Leaning to the over at 142......

Thoughts? Anyone played it already???

Thanks....

[Cardfan]

With Meeks and Jasper out for UK, they only have 3 scorers....Bradley, Crawford, Patterson (subject to foul trouble). I don't think UK can hold up their end of the bargain, unless UF doesn't play D.