1. #1
    tab
    tab's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 10-15-07
    Posts: 1,106

    Parlays decrease your chance of winning

    Lately, I have lost a lot on parlays. I consider even hitting a two team parlay as hard. You have a 25% chance stastitically (.5 x .5) of hitting a two team parlay. And if it is a 3 team, than your chances of hitting drop even more.
    INstead of doing parlays, I am going with only one pick per day. The goal is to find one play and bet in a way that will get you more money than a parlay would.

    $100 4 team parlay to pay $1050

    Instead of betting a parlay, with all the picks on the same day, I will double up on the bets each day starting with my first bet ($110 to win $100).

    1. bet 1 110-100 (after winning, $210)
    2. bet 2 210-191 (after winning, $400)
    3. bet 3 400-360 (after winning, $760)
    4. bet 4 660-600 (after winning, $1260 + $100)

    Bet 1 will be today, bet 2 tommorrow and so forth. I am beginning to think that betting more than one game per day, increases your chances of losing especially after you already have had one winner for the day. IF you can go 4 days with one winner each day, your payout would be better if you double down each bet with your winnings than you would with a 4 team parlay for $100. This is much better way to bet than doing your typical 4 team parlay on a single day. Lets stop doing the parlays and make money with a better payout than a parlay. This is better than giving your money away on a parlay that statistically will lose. This is why I will only post one game per day instead of having 2, 3, 4 or more picks. This way you will only focus on one game per day. I can get lucky and go 4 for 4 like I did on Sunday in college hooops. I rather go 1-0 everyday.

  2. #2
    astro61200
    astro61200's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 09-15-07
    Posts: 4,843
    Betpoints: 30

    It's common knowledge, and common sense, that the more games you put in 1 parlay, the harder it is to win... and the more games you bet in a day the better chance that you will end up losing money

    It's basic math

  3. #3
    buztah
    buztah's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 03-23-07
    Posts: 7,470

    Totally agree. The rational person inside me says to never do parlays but the degenerate phuck forces me to do so. I love gambling and the greedy pig that I am will continue to play parlays.

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