But if you are looking for arguments against, here are some things to chew on.
New Mexico was thought to be questionable up front. It appears, though, from what I have been able to gather, that they have been holding up in that regard. I think New Mexico can hang with New Mexico State underneath.
Las Cruces is a tough place to get a win, and the home team usually wins this in-state battle (the last four meetings, for example). I think the Lobos break serve this year, however.
Basically, I think the Lobos are exceeding expectations, and the Aggies are looking weak. It appears to me that the change of coaches is working out much better at New Mexico than at New Mexico State. The loss of Reggie Theus was hard to swallow in Las Cruces. He went to the Sacramento Kings. This isn't a case where the coach was let go. They hated to see him leave, and I think the program is suffering a hangover from that loss. This is in contrast to the situation at New Mexico, where everyone is psyched about the new coach, Steve Alford, who comes to New Mexico from Iowa. I say these two programs are going in opposite directions.
I'll have a modest play on the Lobos, taking the points at +1.5.