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Week 1 Pags' Plays
Hello board,
Let me first off say that my unit size in college basketball is significantly less than it is in college football. I have been handicapping college football seriously for 23 years, whereas I have only been capping college hoops seriously for 4 years. I also feel like since there are so many more games in college basketball compared to college football, that it's easier to take the half point wins and losses (that seem to be more frequent in college basketball) by playing with a lighter unit size but playing a greater number of games.
I will flat bet each game each week, but much like in college football, my unit size will increase or decrease depending on the week of the season. For example, weeks one through three I will play each game for a half unit. Weeks 4-6 I will play each game for a 3/4 unit. Weeks 7-12 I will play each game for 1 unit. Weeks 13-15 I will play each game for a 3/4 unit. Weeks 16-18 I will play each game for a half unit.
Also, I think it's important to limit approximately how many games each week I play, as there is a tendency with college basketball (especially on Saturdays) to "bet the board". Week 1 I will play approximately 3-7 games. Weeks 2, 3, 4, 5, 14, 16, 18, 19 I will play approximately 23 games. Weeks 6 and 8 I will play approximately 15 games (less games will be played during those weeks due to the Christmas and New Years Holidays). Weeks 10, 11, 12, 13 and 15 I will play approximately 26 games (prime conference season games). It will usually go like this: Sunday- 3 games, Monday- 3 games, Tuesday- 3 to 5 games, Wednesday- 5 to 7 games, Thursday- 3 games, Fri. I take off during conference season, Saturday- 7 games.
I make it a point to handicap 15 of the 32 Division One conferences. I will focus primarily on the ACC, Big 10, Big 12, Pac 10, SEC, Big East, WAC, MWC and MVC. I will also pick my spots with teams from the A-10, Big West, CAA, CUSA, Horizon and WCC. I will make it a point not to bet on any teams from the 17 conferences I don't follow. My other goals are to try and limit the ammount of neutral court games I bet on, because I find them often times more difficult to handicap.
Lastly, I usually end up playing half of my action at bookmaker and half at matchbook, so that everyone is clear I'm going to track my plays much like I do in football. A 1/2 unit win will be +.50, and a half unit loss will be -.50. There are some games where my juice is -103, and some where it's +107 (thus by just saying that my average bet is made at even money I think is a fair estimation). Since I'm not getting paid by anyone for all of this, it's much easier mathmatically for me to track my plays like this. I'm hoping no one will have an issues.
GL to everyone this season.
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Originally Posted by pags11
