1. #1
    Prairie Fire
    Prairie Fire's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 10-24-09
    Posts: 43
    Betpoints: 188

    Picked Duke at 15-1 before the tourny, NEED ADVICE.

    Before the tournament began I made a $10 play on Duke with 15-1 odds to win the whole shabang. Should I continue to ride the play or put a $50 play on Butler's ML, +300. If I make the play on Butler, I have the potential to win either $140 or $95. What do you guys think??

  2. #2
    Ralphie1412
    You Come at the King You Best Not Miss
    Ralphie1412's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 01-29-08
    Posts: 13,963
    Betpoints: 1209

    Its ten bucks.....you have duke who is -300+ at +1500. I think u got 150 bucks coming.

  3. #3
    julio_cat
    julio_cat's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 10-05-09
    Posts: 1,208
    Betpoints: 97

    I suggest, keep your play alive as high as possible, just eliminate the chance of losing money.
    Put another $10 on butler and hope for Duke to win it all for a $140 profit. Worst scenario is winning $20

  4. #4
    Rio DiNero
    using no way as way
    Rio DiNero's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 11-03-08
    Posts: 2,010
    Betpoints: 218

    I would hedge it with Butler+7.5 that way you have a chance to win both.

  5. #5
    MaxEMillion
    MaxEMillion's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 08-31-09
    Posts: 495
    Betpoints: 1866

    for starters I would never ever listen to Ralphie. I am in a similar situation in I got them at 20-1 for 5$. It is the first and only long term future bet I have ever made. I am riding it out and I think I may put some real cash on Duke -7.5.

  6. #6
    filter15
    filter15's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 11-04-09
    Posts: 549

    I say I agree
    eliminate the chance of losing money take the 100 bucks

  7. #7
    MJT1212
    ECU Pirates
    MJT1212's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 02-16-09
    Posts: 5,124
    Betpoints: 79

    Take Butler +7.5 for 50

  8. #8
    CashMoney27
    CashMoney27's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 03-15-10
    Posts: 253
    Betpoints: 13

    i think duke will win this one but just to be safe id take butler +7.5 for 10$$

  9. #9
    iceminers26
    iceminers26's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 10-13-08
    Posts: 15,600

    Again it comes down to how much you usually wager per play, if you're a $5 bettor bettor per and have the chance to guarantee yourself at least $100 then you may want to hedge. If you're a $50 or up per play bettor, there is not much value in hedging when you're getting over a (-300) favorite at +1500. Personally, I like Butler in this game on the points and also took a shot on them on the ML as well because it has great value and I honestly think they have a shot even though not many others feel the same. If it was me and with your wager figures, I would throw $75 on Butler +7.5 and try to find a book offering it at even money, therefore you have the possibility of winning a total of $225 if Duke wins SU and Butler covers, winning $75 if Duke wins SU and covers ATS, and $65 if Butler wins SU. Again, I like Butler in this game but if you really like Duke, you can always let your original $10 play ride for the possibility of a $150 return. Good luck with whatever you decide and I hope you come out a winner because that was a solid future play by you.
    Points Awarded:

    Reload gave iceminers26 2 SBR Point(s) for this post.

    Prairie Fire gave iceminers26 2 SBR Point(s) for this post.


  10. #10
    Snowball
    Snowball's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 11-15-09
    Posts: 30,021
    Betpoints: 3780

    must have been before the bracket was out. i don't remember Duke paying 15-1 unless it was still during the regular season. kind of curious when you made this bet...

  11. #11
    jlgarciaiii22
    jlgarciaiii22's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 04-14-08
    Posts: 1,792
    Betpoints: 3722

    Ride it out... Duke Wins!

  12. #12
    Prairie Fire
    Prairie Fire's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 10-24-09
    Posts: 43
    Betpoints: 188

    First, thanks to the solid advice, especially iceminer. I think I may take Butler +7.5, with the hopes of chasing in on both. Thanks again guys.
    Second, I took the bet about two-three weeks before the tournament began, odds came from scoresandodds.com

  13. #13
    peterw111
    peterw111's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 01-05-10
    Posts: 422
    Betpoints: 205

    Quote Originally Posted by Snowball View Post
    must have been before the bracket was out. i don't remember Duke paying 15-1 unless it was still during the regular season. kind of curious when you made this bet...
    WHO REALLY CARES WHEN THE BET WAS PLACED

    Why don't you just come out and say YOU DON'T BELIEVE HIM

    Its was only a $10 bet @15/1. F##K ME some people are really F***ED.

    Anyway if it was me I would take Butler +7.5 pt for $10 and you could win both if its close scoring game.

  14. #14
    Snowball
    Snowball's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 11-15-09
    Posts: 30,021
    Betpoints: 3780

    Quote Originally Posted by Prairie Fire View Post
    Second, I took the bet about two-three weeks before the tournament began, odds came from scoresandodds.com
    thanks, Prarie. I thought it had to be a at least a couple weeks before the bracket was out. I was just curious.

    and no, Peter, I wasn't calling him a liar.

  15. #15
    JuicedUp
    JuicedUp's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 01-20-10
    Posts: 3,396
    Betpoints: 6184

    grab your balls and ride it out!

  16. #16
    nobull
    nobull's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 11-23-09
    Posts: 830
    Betpoints: 6141

    blue devils have so many weapons its not even funny. having said that i'm taking the underdog and the points. that looks like a trap line. the line should be way higher.

  17. #17
    Bigcheez
    Bigcheez's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 12-02-09
    Posts: 399
    Betpoints: 5585

    Just ride it out.

  18. #18
    will2survive
    STAY IN YO LANE!
    will2survive's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 11-26-09
    Posts: 8,106
    Betpoints: 22

    ride duke

  19. #19
    ericthegangster
    MARK IT ZERO!
    ericthegangster's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 12-10-09
    Posts: 1,764

    i would hedge it with a small ML bet on butler. nice call though sir

  20. #20
    knightof7
    knightof7's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 01-14-10
    Posts: 396

    I'll hedge for guaranteed cash everytime.
    wont advice how much to hedge since I dont know if you're greedy or not.

  21. #21
    spongerat
    spongerat's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 10-01-08
    Posts: 2,023
    Betpoints: 96

    ride it out, its just for fun and not huge money

  22. #22
    dodger33
    Kershnasty
    dodger33's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 08-14-09
    Posts: 3,962
    Betpoints: 244

    10-20 butler ml

  23. #23
    JayTrotter
    JayTrotter's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 03-27-10
    Posts: 320

    I would say that you should put 150 dollars on butler money line if you really are interested in the biggest bang for your buck... you would have a 30% chance of winning 45 to 1

    this way you are risking 10 dollars to win 450.... 45 to 1 is better than 15 to 1....

    If you think this game is 50/50

    77 on Butler +7.5 that way, 10 dollars and u are winning 220 or winning 80.

    When I bet on MNF underdogs ML, I always hedge at half, and I am always glad i did... buffalo, looking at you...

  24. #24
    goblue12
    goblue12's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 02-08-09
    Posts: 1,316
    Betpoints: 453

    Let it ride.

    You've got a +1500 bet on a favorite.

    Had Duke been an underdog in this spot, I'd consider hedging.

  25. #25
    suicidekings
    Update your status
    suicidekings's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 03-23-09
    Posts: 9,962

    Quote Originally Posted by spongerat View Post
    ride it out, its just for fun and not huge money
    Big or small, guaranteed money is fun.

    Optimal solution is to wager $40 on the Butler ML (+300)

    Butler: $40 * (+300) - $10 (future wager) = $120 - $10 future = $110 profit
    Duke: $10 * (+1500) - $40 (Butler ML) = $150 - $40 ML wager = $110 profit

    You guarantee yourself a return of $110 in profit, which is 73% of what you'd get if Duke wins, stress-free. Take the hedged money and enjoy the game...

  26. #26
    suicidekings
    Update your status
    suicidekings's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 03-23-09
    Posts: 9,962

    Quote Originally Posted by goblue12 View Post
    Let it ride.

    You've got a +1500 bet on a favorite.

    Had Duke been an underdog in this spot, I'd consider hedging.
    This makes no sense. He can take both sides as big dogs... It's an ideal hedging situation.

  27. #27
    OmgUrMom
    OmgUrMom's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 02-07-10
    Posts: 8,481

    Quote Originally Posted by iceminers26 View Post
    Again it comes down to how much you usually wager per play, if you're a $5 bettor bettor per and have the chance to guarantee yourself at least $100 then you may want to hedge. If you're a $50 or up per play bettor, there is not much value in hedging when you're getting over a (-300) favorite at +1500. Personally, I like Butler in this game on the points and also took a shot on them on the ML as well because it has great value and I honestly think they have a shot even though not many others feel the same. If it was me and with your wager figures, I would throw $75 on Butler +7.5 and try to find a book offering it at even money, therefore you have the possibility of winning a total of $225 if Duke wins SU and Butler covers, winning $75 if Duke wins SU and covers ATS, and $65 if Butler wins SU. Again, I like Butler in this game but if you really like Duke, you can always let your original $10 play ride for the possibility of a $150 return. Good luck with whatever you decide and I hope you come out a winner because that was a solid future play by you.
    good post iceminer.

    If you typically bet even $25+ per game there is really no reason to hedge here unless you actually think Butler +300 is a good bet, if that is the case by all means do so.

    The only reason you should hedge is if you are scared of the risk involved, in other words $150 would be a large percentage of your bankroll.

  28. #28
    OmgUrMom
    OmgUrMom's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 02-07-10
    Posts: 8,481

    Quote Originally Posted by suicidekings View Post
    Big or small, guaranteed money is fun.

    Optimal solution is to wager $40 on the Butler ML (+300)

    Butler: $40 * (+300) - $10 (future wager) = $120 - $10 future = $110 profit
    Duke: $10 * (+1500) - $40 (Butler ML) = $150 - $40 ML wager = $110 profit

    You guarantee yourself a return of $110 in profit, which is 73% of what you'd get if Duke wins, stress-free. Take the hedged money and enjoy the game...
    if $150 isn't a big bet for you then there is no reason to hedge this unless you think Butler +300 is a good play, if you hedge it it when $150 isn't a lot to you and you don't think butler +300 is a good play then you are just paying the bookies vig.

  29. #29
    terpkeg
    terpkeg's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 10-26-09
    Posts: 2,354
    Betpoints: 2434

    Quote Originally Posted by iceminers26 View Post
    Again it comes down to how much you usually wager per play, if you're a $5 bettor bettor per and have the chance to guarantee yourself at least $100 then you may want to hedge. If you're a $50 or up per play bettor, there is not much value in hedging when you're getting over a (-300) favorite at +1500. Personally, I like Butler in this game on the points and also took a shot on them on the ML as well because it has great value and I honestly think they have a shot even though not many others feel the same. If it was me and with your wager figures, I would throw $75 on Butler +7.5 and try to find a book offering it at even money, therefore you have the possibility of winning a total of $225 if Duke wins SU and Butler covers, winning $75 if Duke wins SU and covers ATS, and $65 if Butler wins SU. Again, I like Butler in this game but if you really like Duke, you can always let your original $10 play ride for the possibility of a $150 return. Good luck with whatever you decide and I hope you come out a winner because that was a solid future play by you.

    i think this is right on

  30. #30
    Kustac
    Kustac's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 10-15-09
    Posts: 550

    nice spot to be in and nice call on catching them back at 15-1

Top