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Why the ACC deserves three No. 1 seeds -- regardless of the Duke-UNC outcome
Why the ACC deserves three No. 1 seeds -- regardless of the Duke-UNC outcome
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Duke vs. North Carolina Round 2 is here. Zion Williamson's status is on everyone's mind, but perhaps we should be discussing the impact this game has on who will get a No. 1 seed on March 17.
Duke is currently a No. 1 seed in Joe Lunardi's bracketology, and UNC is a No. 2 seed. Many people see the winner of this game as being a No. 1 seed and the loser a No. 2 seed. The metrics tell a different story, saying regardless of who wins, both of these teams deserve a No. 1 seed on Selection Sunday.
Should Virginia, Duke and UNC all receive a No. 1 seed, it would tie the Big East in 2009 for the most teams from one conference getting a No. 1 seed. Interestingly enough, UNC -- the only non-Big East No. 1 seed that year -- won the national championship.
Why does a No. 1 matter? Since the tournament expanded to 64 teams, 21 national champions have been No. 1 seeds, as opposed to only five that have won as a No. 2 seed. No. 1 seeds are typically better basketball teams, which explains most of the discrepancy, but the NCAA does try to accommodate the No. 1 seeds the best it can by giving them the closest regional-final location. In building BPI, I learned the data shows that playing close to home matters and is an advantage. Being a No. 1 seed matters, and the ACC has three teams that have earned that distinction.
Deciding who deserves the preferential treatment of a No. 1 seed could be a dizzying proposition for the selection committee. The teams currently listed by Lunardi as No. 1 or No. 2 seeds are Gonzaga, Virginia, Duke, Kentucky, UNC, Tennessee, Michigan, and Michigan State. Each of these eight teams have played at least one other, and all but Michigan State have multiple games against the other seven. Duke and North Carolina have six games against these elite teams before conference tournaments. Kentucky has four, and everyone else has three or fewer.
Though in a different order, these also happen to be the top eight teams in ESPN's Strength of Record (SOR), which measures the difficulty of each team's win-loss record given its schedule. SOR measures pure accomplishment without any ACC, Duke or other (I have been accused of them all) bias. The top three teams in ESPN's SOR are currently Virginia, Duke and UNC.
Why The ACC Should Have Three No. 1 Seeds
TEAM SOR RANK ELITE RECORD* OTHER RECORD SOS RANK** Virginia 1 1-2 26-0 16 Duke 2 3-2 23-2 12 North Carolina 3 2-3 23-2 2 Tennessee 4 2-1 25-2 51 Michigan 5 1-1 25-3 18 Gonzaga 6 1-2 28-0 80 Kentucky 7 2-2 23-3 26 Michigan State 8 1-0 23-6 10 *Against Joe Lunardi No. 1 and No. 2 seeds **Including future games
Either Duke or UNC will lose in the rivalry game, but both will still be deserving of a No. 1 seed. Should Duke lose, the committee might be forgiving of this stretch without Williamson. If North Carolina loses, its projected SOR is fourth-best in the nation -- i.e., deserving of a No. 1 seed. Virginia is undefeated against everyone not named Duke; the Cavaliers seem a lock for No. 1 seed no matter what happens in the ACC tournament.
Even if all three teams deserve the No. 1 seed, will they get it?
Per ESPN's Basketball Power Index (BPI), which tries to predict the seeds on Selection Sunday (not today), the ACC has a 47 percent chance to have three No. 1 seeds. North Carolina has only a 40 percent chance at a No. 1 seed with a loss, whereas Duke will still have a 76 percent chance with a loss.
The difficulty the committee might have is if North Carolina loses to Duke and then again to Duke or Virginia in the ACC tournament. Even if that happens, North Carolina will still have only two losses against teams not currently a No. 1 or No. 2 seed. Only Virginia and Gonzaga have fewer.
The committee might give only two ACC teams a No. 1 seed, but if it does, it will be wrong.
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