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Wake @ VT: thoughts, plays
Tonight’s game in Blacksburg is a game between two very hot teams (Wake is 7-3 SU in their last 10 and VT is 8-2 SU). Wake has done this through I think Wake has the more talented team, but this game is at VT. All of Wake’s losses in conference this season have been on the road, and VT is a very tough team to play in Blacksburg. Though VT plays better at home, they have not been dominating teams. They are undefeated at home but they have wins by 1 over BC, 4 over UNC, and 6 over Virginia. The in conference statistics only reinforce my point on VT having to just skate by in a few games. The Hokies are averaging only 69 ppg in conference, which is 2 points below average. They have also shot the ball poorly posing a 40% FG and 30% 3PT, and the scariest statistic against a long, physical Wake team is that they have been outrebounded by 4 per game. In their losses and close games (games decided in OT), VT has been outrebounded or tied in the rebounding category for all 7 games. Which ever team can win the rebounding will win the game.
The front line for Wake is not nationally known, but they do have big guys that are very strong on the inside. Chas McFarland is big and fearless and stands at 7’ tall. Wake plays two other centers in Woods and Weaver who are both 6’11. And while these guys have size, Wake’s best rebounder is 6’9 in Aminu who averages a double-double this year with 10.5 rebounds per game. Aminu is a great player that VT must control in order to be successful. He is very versatile on the both ends of the court. He can match up with the other teams SF, PF, or C, he can bring the ball up the court when the other team presses, he is has strong offensive moves on the inside, and he has a nice mid range game. While Aminu is the most important player on Wake’s team, another guy who is vital to their success is their PG Ish Smith. Smith is a traditional pass first, quick PG, that looks to create by driving to the basket. My concern for the Hokies is that they will have no one to match his speed on the perimeter. In their 3 conference losses, Smith has averaged 10 ppg (3 off his season average), 4 turnovers per game (1 above season average), and 4.5 assists (1.5 below his average). Wake will go as Smith goes in this game. VT is known for playing lock down defense (giving up only 61 ppg this season), and Smith will have to be able to create and use their size advantage in order to be successful.
The Hokies are lead by Malcolm Delany, who is averaging 19.7 ppg this season. In conference, Delany is averaging over 21 ppg, a lot of which came when he was hampered by injury. Now that he is healthy, VT is even more dangerous. VT’s team as a whole is very much guard oriented. The tallest player on the roster that plays significant minutes is 6’8. When you are playing a front line as big as Wake’s front line, this size disadvantage will be extremely tough to handle. In previous games this season against big teams VT has struggled, losing to FSU and UNC prior to the Zeller and Davis injuries. The advantage VT has is on the defensive end like I mentioned above. The Hokies play an opportunistic style of defense that forces 16+ turnovers per game on average. However, their defense has struggled in ACC play where they are allowing opponents to score 6 more point per game, and their rebounding numbers have fallen off sharply. Another advantage VT has is in FT shooting where they shoot 76% as a team (10% higher than Wake).
Both teams have posted impressive trend resumes as of late:
Wake Forest (covers.com)
- Demon Deacons are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record.
- Demon Deacons are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games overall.
- Demon Deacons are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 vs. Atlantic Coast.
- Demon Deacons are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games as an underdog of 0.5-6.5.
- Demon Deacons are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games as a road underdog of 0.5-6.5.
- Demon Deacons are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.
- Demon Deacons are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a S.U. win.
- Demon Deacons are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS win.
- Demon Deacons are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 Tuesday games.
- Demon Deacons are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
- Demon Deacons are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 games as an underdog.
VT (covers.com)
- Hokies are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a ATS loss.
- Hokies are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games as a favorite of 0.5-6.5.
- Hokies are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games as a favorite.
- Hokies are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.
- Hokies are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 home games.
- Hokies are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 games overall.
- Hokies are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
- Hokies are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 Tuesday games.
- Hokies are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record.
While impressive, the head-to-head numbers have Wake as 0-4 ATS in the last 4 meetings. But the road team is 5-2 ATS in the last 7 meetings. Though trends are important to some, they are not a deciding factor for me when it comes to point spreads. I personally think this line is a little off. I figured the game would open at around 3.5 points give or take a half. I will be taking Wake +6 in this game. The winner of this game will be the team that controls the tempo. I know I say this a lot, but it is usually true. Wake looks to play a faster-paced, up and down type game that gets into the upper-70’s to low-80’s, while VT would be happy to keep this game in the low-60’s. Wake has been known to struggle shooting at times in the half court sets, but they have such a size advantage in this game, I expect their offense to be efficient. So again I like Wake in this spot +6, and I also like over 136 for the game.
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birdman779 gave DolphinSpurs 3 SBR Point(s) for this post.
Originally Posted by LTCOL27
